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Old 30-11-2021, 12:00   #16
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Re: Africa: The Covid control group of the world

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Originally Posted by Smooth Cruiser View Post
Surely it's relevant that most of the deaths in Europe and the US occurred prior to the availability of and full take up of the vaccines......
I can't believe I just posted on the internet in a Covid related thread . . .
It would be relavent except for the fact that it is not true. Look at the death rate chart for almost any country and you will see a huge spike in the death rates immediately following the introduction of the vaccines. These death rate spikes dwarf the deaths from the initial (winter/spring 2020) surge.
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers...+Union~USA~GBR
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Old 30-11-2021, 12:13   #17
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Re: Africa: The Covid control group of the world

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Originally Posted by Thumbs Up View Post
It would be relavent except for the fact that it is not true. Look at the death rate chart for almost any country and you will see a huge spike in the death rates immediately following the introduction of the vaccines. These death rate spikes dwarf the deaths from the initial (winter/spring 2020) surge.
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers...+Union~USA~GBR
"Introduction" of vaccines or vaccines in arms?
In Brazil, we've seen a declining death rate that corresponds precisely to the rising vaccination rate.
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Old 30-11-2021, 16:07   #18
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Re: Africa: The Covid control group of the world

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Originally Posted by Thumbs Up View Post
It would be relavent except for the fact that it is not true. Look at the death rate chart for almost any country and you will see a huge spike in the death rates immediately following the introduction of the vaccines. These death rate spikes dwarf the deaths from the initial (winter/spring 2020) surge.
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers...+Union~USA~GBR
I don't see that.

Take the UK as an example - this data from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

In the first wave the death rate compared to the number of cases was very high, in the second wave with very little vaccination but more understanding and controls the bars are similar sizes (with the axis scales used) and in the third wave with vaccination and potentially less other controls in place the death rate compared to the number of cases is tiny. How can this show anything else except that vaccines work to limit the death rate??
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Old 30-11-2021, 21:55   #19
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Re: Africa: The Covid control group of the world

Death rate is the only reliable metric. "Number of cases" based on high threshold PCR tests and the number of these tests administered is low quality data subject to many variables. What you see is a huge spike in the death rate after the vaccine. But if you want to delve into the UK data you will see a much higher case rate in the vaccinated vs unvaccinated and furthermore you will see the death rates among the vaccinated not looking so good.
All of that data is here:https://www.gov.uk/government/public...llance-reports
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Old 30-11-2021, 22:23   #20
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Re: Africa: The Covid control group of the world

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Originally Posted by Thumbs Up View Post
Death rate is the only reliable metric. "Number of cases" based on high threshold PCR tests and the number of these tests administered is low quality data subject to many variables. What you see is a huge spike in the death rate after the vaccine. But if you want to delve into the UK data you will see a much higher case rate in the vaccinated vs unvaccinated and furthermore you will see the death rates among the vaccinated not looking so good.
All of that data is here:https://www.gov.uk/government/public...llance-reports
So, I'm not sure if you're just quoting documents hoping people aren't going to read them, but according to the UK data you have linked, the vaccine is up to 95% effective "at preventing symptomatic disease with
COVID-19 with the Delta variant, with higher levels of protection against severe disease including hospitalisation and death." With regards to the only metric being death rate that concerns you, ie. mortality, "High levels of protection (over 90%) are also seen against mortality with all 3 vaccines and
against both the Alpha and Delta variants". I suggest just linking the primary source material without interpretation.
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Old 30-11-2021, 23:17   #21
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Re: Africa: The Covid control group of the world

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So, I'm not sure if you're just quoting documents hoping people aren't going to read them, but according to the UK data you have linked, the vaccine is up to 95% effective "at preventing symptomatic disease with
COVID-19 with the Delta variant, with higher levels of protection against severe disease including hospitalisation and death." With regards to the only metric being death rate that concerns you, ie. mortality, "High levels of protection (over 90%) are also seen against mortality with all 3 vaccines and
against both the Alpha and Delta variants". I suggest just linking the primary source material without interpretation.
The "primary source material" is the weekly surveillance report pdfs linked on that site. You are quoting their interpretations, not the data itself. The data indicates that the vaccinated test positive at a much higher rate than the unvaccinated. It does show the unvaccinated dying at a higher rate than the vaxxed. Week 47 does show 3-4 times (depending on age group) higher death rate than vaxxed but how that extrapolates to 95% effective appears to be trickery.
After some disclaimers they state that their vaccine effectiveness estimates do not come from this data but instead are estimated from "several different sources". The actual numbers of hospitilized and deceased are much higher in the vaccinated groups putting the notion that "the unvaxxed are clogging up hospitals" to rest. The UK appear to be the only agency reporting actual numbers including the fully and partially vaxxed. So to be sure, I have quoted these stats to encourage people to read them (not hoping that they won't as you suggested).
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Old 01-12-2021, 10:02   #22
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Re: Africa: The Covid control group of the world

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The "primary source material" is the weekly surveillance report pdfs linked on that site. You are quoting their interpretations, not the data itself. The data indicates that the vaccinated test positive at a much higher rate than the unvaccinated. It does show the unvaccinated dying at a higher rate than the vaxxed. Week 47 does show 3-4 times (depending on age group) higher death rate than vaxxed but how that extrapolates to 95% effective appears to be trickery.
After some disclaimers they state that their vaccine effectiveness estimates do not come from this data but instead are estimated from "several different sources". The actual numbers of hospitilized and deceased are much higher in the vaccinated groups putting the notion that "the unvaxxed are clogging up hospitals" to rest. The UK appear to be the only agency reporting actual numbers including the fully and partially vaxxed. So to be sure, I have quoted these stats to encourage people to read them (not hoping that they won't as you suggested).
I apologize for the attack. It looked to me like the linked source presented the opposite of what you suggested.

In Week 47, are you were referring to Table 11 where deaths are reported per 100,000 persons stratified by age? Here, in age 60-69 for example, the deaths within 28 days is 6.6 vaxed and 27.9 unvaxxed. So more deaths if unvaxxed.

Table 10 which reports unadjusted deaths. For example in age 60-69, there are 154 unvaxxed deaths and 380 vaxxed deaths. However, you need to take into account that the proportion of persons vaccinated are higher, and so the unvaxxed deaths are very high given the lower number of persons who are unvaxxed. This explanation is given below Table 10 (footnote 1), as well as page 27 and 28. Thus is derived the 95% effacacy in favor of the vaccine, and not trickery.
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Old 01-12-2021, 12:47   #23
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Re: Africa: The Covid control group of the world

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..........Thus is derived the 95% effacacy in favor of the vaccine, and not trickery.
Not quite. They clearly state that their vaccine effectivenes numbers are taken from "studies in UK populations" (so not from the data presented on those charts). They fail to list these studies or describe just how their "efficacy" was extrapolated.

Remember Pfizer's claim that thier vaccine was 100 percent efficacious against death? This was based on one Covid death in the treatment arm (of their trial) vs two in the placebo group. (This was termed "relative risk") It has been shown that the true reduction of risk (from this same trial) is 1/22,000. One life saved per 22,000 immunized. What they failed to mention though is that there were 4 times the number of lethal heart attacks in the treatment group. There were 20 deaths in the vaccinated group vs 14 in the placebo group (all cause mortality). That is over 40% more deaths in the vaccine group. This was indeed trickery. What we need to know now is if there is an uptick in cardiac related deaths post vaccine. I have yet to find those statistics.

It says here that they will be published in January 2022:
https://www.gov.uk/government/statis...7-january-2022
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Old 01-12-2021, 13:41   #24
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Re: Africa: The Covid control group of the world

First case in US with omicron is a fully vaccinated person from California who went to S Africa. CDC conclusion...we all need to be vaccinated. But wait...wasnt this guy fully vaccinated ?
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Old 01-12-2021, 13:57   #25
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Re: Africa: The Covid control group of the world

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What we need to know now is if there is an uptick in cardiac related deaths post vaccine. I have yet to find those statistics.

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So many things like this Thumbs, it makes me crazy! If you can find information you can usually find offsetting information from another source.

Yes, I know it is very early days data wise but there are lots of people yelling that we should just listen to the science....
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Old 01-12-2021, 14:01   #26
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Re: Africa: The Covid control group of the world

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So many things like this Thumbs, it makes me crazy! If you can find information you can usually find offsetting information from another source.

Yes, I know it is very early days data wise but there are lots of people yelling that we should just listen to the science....
This poster is not listening to the science, he's ignoring the real experts, cherry-picking data, and when that's not enough, invoking unidentifiable conspiracies to explain his misinformation.
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Old 01-12-2021, 14:29   #27
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Re: Africa: The Covid control group of the world

I thought that you didn't respond to my posts Mike. I stayed out of the last discussion. Since you obviously do respond, you can answer my inquiry from before. Who are the real experts? List them by name please. I read that you do "medical jounalism". I can't find your name on any. Are you paid to write propaganda? Fauci said that attacks on him are attacks on science. Do you actually believe that?
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Old 01-12-2021, 14:42   #28
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Re: Africa: The Covid control group of the world

At work, we talk about the "infodemic" covid has created. Reading and interpreting studies that come out seemingly hourly from around the world is dizzying for sure. In the age of digital media, pre print servers, like mdrxiv, have risen to popularity.

The trouble with this is that the articles don't get peer reviewed and therefore the results and conclusions may not be valid, on all sides of these discussions. The most glaring example of this was the use of hydroxy chloroquine.

Also, Covid has a sigmoidal illness curve. What works in the beginning doesn't work in the end as the illness crescendoes. The most recent example of this is anticoagulant medications and monoclonal antibodies. They only impact early disease not late disease.

There is a large randomized, controlled trial currently underway with ivermectin. We'll know reasonably soon what the impact of ivermectin is, when it's useful and when it isn't, as well as subgroup analyses to help us make better decisions on treatment. The drug itself has a reasonable side effect profile, however indiscriminate use will lead to resistance in the organisms for which it is the only treatment.

Covid will never go away, just like sepsis or cancer has never gone away. Treatments come and go as evidence is gathered about treatment effectiveness or complications become available. Unfortunately, sometimes this information is only understood in post-use analysis.
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Old 01-12-2021, 15:00   #29
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Re: Africa: The Covid control group of the world

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Originally Posted by Mike OReilly View Post
This poster is not listening to the science, he's ignoring the real experts, cherry-picking data, and when that's not enough, invoking unidentifiable conspiracies to explain his misinformation.
And then we have this kind of frightening video to further polarize the discussion.

https://www.facebook.com/pasthenry.g...6985048866873/
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Old 01-12-2021, 15:08   #30
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Re: Africa: The Covid control group of the world

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Africa is the problem for those that claim that vaccines are the solution to Covid. Africa is by far the least vaccinated continent. You see, with 16% of the worlds population, Africa has less than 3% of the worlds deaths from Covid, and yet has only 6% of the vaccinations.



What does this tell us?
Perhaps that mortality data from developing nations is notoriously unreliable and you shouldn’t take it at face value.
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