War in Ukraine/Med Cruising

[goboatingnow]

Originally Posted by letsgetsailing3

This isn't going to be over in 48 hours.

I don't think russia has the ability to sustain a ground offensive , It has air superiority and that's about it

equally there are protest all over Russia and massive massive economical sanctions are now kicking in

You'll see Putin will halt this action , and claim the ( larger) Donbas area.

I think there will not be any attempt to occupy the capital etc

of course the after effects will go on for years

Putin cannot hold Ukraine , at best he can annex Donbas ( or attempt to )

[boatman61]

I believe I read somewhere Putin has stashed over $1.5 trillion for this adventure.. how over or underestimated this sum is I don't know but its not an adventure on a whim.. not his style.

[letsgetsailing3]

Originally Posted by goboatingnow

I don't think russia has the ability to sustain a ground offensive , It has air superiority and that's about it

equally there are protest all over Russia and massive massive economical sanctions are now kicking in

You'll see Putin will halt this action , and claim the ( larger) Donbas area.

I think there will not be any attempt to occupy the capital etc

of course the after effects will go on for years

Putin cannot hold Ukraine , at best he can annex Donbas ( or attempt to )

If that were his plan, why even invade the rest of the country?

He intends to control Ukraine.

“Our assessment that they [the Russians] have every intention of basically decapitating the government and installing their own method of governance,”


-- Senior Pentagon official

[goboatingnow]

great retort from the russian ambassador about sanctions

" well, if some wealthy Russians cant go shopping in Europe is of no consequences to us " !!!

[letsgetsailing3]

Originally Posted by boatman61

I believe I read somewhere Putin has stashed over $1.5 trillion for this adventure.. how over or underestimated this sum is I don't know but its not an adventure on a whim.. not his style.

Correct.


None of this is on 'whim'.


This is all carefully planned and coordinated.


I think miscalculated, but I suppose time will tell.

[letsgetsailing3]

Originally Posted by goboatingnow

great retort from the russian ambassador about sanctions

" well, if some wealthy Russians cant go shopping in Europe is of no consequences to us " !!!

I think he's going to feel some consequences. The ruble has devalued in the past week, and will continue to do so.

This will hurt the average Russian, not just the Oligarchs. This will even affect the average American and European in the form of gas prices, financial markets, etc.

So I think the Russian ambassador may be underplaying it, just a little bit. Of course, last week he was saying Russia wasn't going to invade...

[goboatingnow]

Originally Posted by letsgetsailing3

If that were his plan, why even invade the rest of the country?

He intends to control Ukraine.

“Our assessment that they [the Russians] have every intention of basically decapitating the government and installing their own method of governance,”


-- Senior Pentagon official

Ukraines army has gradually made advances before this into Donbas, to successfully annex Donbas, Putin has to greatly degrade the Ukrainian military's capacity and that's his intention , He has no ability to dominate Ukraine as a country .

I dont belive he has any intention to actually occupy Ukraine, I could be wrong , but Putin is not a fool , albeit what hes doing is foolish

[Lake-Effect]

Originally Posted by Adelie

Lapdog may have been unhelpful but it was not inaccurate.

Ukraine chose not to be the lapdog, they chose to fight. They will probably lose and become an occupied vassal state but that doesn’t mean it wasn’t worth doing. Fighting against what is wrong even when you expect to lose is courage worth admiring.

Did they have other choices? Has the west been pushing Ukraine's interests, or just the west's interests? The west response leading up to all this was "We see you! Don't do it, Vlad, or we'll ... get really really mad. Yeah". But actual military support was moved off the table months before. Was there not some realpolitik solution other than brinksmanship and invasion?

It's of course up to Ukrainians to choose their own course, but this isn't happening in isolation; this is a proxy, a move in a larger game. Is Ukraine a pawn in our game that we were willing to sacrifice? Did we do all we could to minimize the risk, and now the harsh toll, on Ukraine?

[goboatingnow]

Originally Posted by letsgetsailing3

I think he's going to feel some consequences. The ruble has devalued in the past week, and will continue to do so.

This will hurt the average Russian, not just the Oligarchs. This will even affect the average American and European in the form of gas prices, financial markets, etc.

So I think the Russian ambassador may be underplaying it, just a little bit. Of course, last week he was saying Russia wasn't going to invade...

I was being a bit flippant, I think Russia has factored in sanctions, they deleveraged out of the dollar in recent years

yes sanctions will hurt but are totally ineffective in preventing action

[goboatingnow]

Originally Posted by Lake-Effect

Did they have other choices? Has the west been pushing Ukraine's interests, or just the west's interests? The west response leading up to all this was "We see you! Don't do it, Vlad, or we'll ... get really really mad. Yeah". But actual military support was moved off the table months before. Was there not some realpolitik solution other than brinksmanship and invasion?

It's of course up to Ukrainians to choose their own course, but this isn't happening in isolation; this is a proxy, a move in a larger game. Is Ukraine a pawn in our game that we were willing to sacrifice? Did we do all we could to minimize the risk, and now the harsh toll, on Ukraine?

very insightful

[jmh2002]

Originally Posted by goboatingnow

Putins is now defending his actions , looks like " if youre explaining you're loosing " !!!

I believe it will bring his demise

Russia continues to advance.

Some Russian forces, in general small amounts of Paratroopers, deep inside Ukraine.

Ukraine continues to fight and continues to inflict losses on Russia.

'Javelins are working' was the comment.

[goboatingnow]

Originally Posted by jmh2002

Russia continues to advance.

Some Russian forces, small amounts of Paratroopers, deep inside Ukraine.

Ukraine continues to fight and continues to inflict losses on Russia.

'Javelins are working' was the comment.

Ukraine cannot hold out for too long in a conventional battle. it will quickly become an insurgency . Ukraine has no capability to counter Russia's military in a conventional way . This is simply a fact or numbers and technology

[laird]

Boris. Johnson has said that the the UK will put an end to Russians owning British houses ,if he's looking for someone to take Abramovich mayfair flat ,I'm willing ��

[hedgeworth]

Originally Posted by goboatingnow

I was being a bit flippant, I think Russia has factored in sanctions, they deleveraged out of the dollar in recent years



yes sanctions will hurt but are totally ineffective in preventing action

Countries can prohibit trade with other countries. Russia is a net importer of food. They export a lot of oil.

It would not be good for any Westerners who currently have business interests in Russia, but it is not unheard of for the United States to prohibit trade with various nations. We certainly do it all the time with technology.

[boatman61]

Crypto investors are pulling their hair out..

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/mark...cid=uxbndlbing