War in Ukraine/Med Cruising

[hedgeworth]

Originally Posted by CFS Klopas

There sure are. Let this be a lesson about taking conservatives seriously.

Ouch. That’s gotta sting.

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by goboatingnow

The EU has a general roadmap for Ukraine to join the EU. It has proceed very significant financial support to ready it’s economy for entry.

Some have suggested that Putin has acted before within a few years , Ukraine would be admitted.

The key here is what happens next.

It's academic now, but all this about EU membership for Ukraine was mere window-dressing. The EU had very serious problems absorbing Bulgaria, which is 3x or 4x wealthier per capita than Ukraine. Such a poor and corrupt country with such an un-Western economy is at least two bridges too far for the EU. It would have been equivalent to trying to absorb Senegal, say.

Free trade and investment are different matters -- would have been very beneficial for Ukraine.

But it's a moot point now.

Originally Posted by goboatingnow

External military action is out. But we now need to implement the most punitive sanctions ever seen

Deny swift , shut external air says , close the Bosporous , freeze all Russian assets

It’s the best we can do. But we need to do it.

All that will happen, don't worry. Except closing the Bosphorous, which Turkey is allowed to do only if Turkey itself is at war, which it is not. Turkey has close relations with both Russia and Ukraine and has been attempting to mediate. Turkey is not going to do anything hostile towards either party and is certainly not going to commit an act of war like closing the Bosphorous.

[hedgeworth]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

It's academic now, but all this about EU membership for Ukraine was mere window-dressing. The EU had very serious problems absorbing Bulgaria, which is 3x or 4x wealthier per capita than Ukraine. Such a poor and corrupt country with such an un-Western economy is at least two bridges too far for the EU. It would have been equivalent to trying to absorb Senegal, say.

Free trade and investment are different matters -- would have been very beneficial for Ukraine.

But it's a moot point now.





All that will happen, don't worry. Except closing the Bosphorous, which Turkey is allowed to do only if Turkey itself is at war, which it is not. Turkey has close relations with both Russia and Ukraine and has been attempting to mediate. Turkey is not going to do anything hostile towards either party and is certainly not going to commit an act of war like closing the Bosphorous.

Turns out some of the important facts you presented in this discussion were not facts at all. And most of the conclusions and predictions you drew from those “facts” were exactly wrong.

I do not know if it’s the conflicts of interest you have in this matter (which you will not discuss) which led you to these erroneous conclusions. All I can say is that I have to demote you on the credibility scale for this issue down to the level of “boatman1” — the second lowest level of credibility I assign to any comments.

But do keep posting. It’s amusing.

[hpeer]

Interesting times.

As a minimum long lasting damage will have been done to international trade. Fuel supply routes disrupted, quite possibly food supply also. Countries far removed from the conflict will be effected if just indirectly.

The world commerce exists on trust, that has been shaken. How deep the damage is an open question.

[Pelagic]

Originally Posted by hedgeworth

Turns out some of the important facts you presented in this discussion were not facts at all. And most of the conclusions and predictions you drew from those “facts” were exactly wrong.

I do not know if it’s the conflicts of interest you have in this matter (which you will not discuss) which led you to these erroneous conclusions. All I can say is that I have to demote you on the credibility scale for this issue down to the level of “boatman1” — the second lowest level of credibility I assign to any comments.

But do keep posting. It’s amusing.

Hedgeworth after only 77 posts you are not even eligible for a credit check.

Dockhead has proven himself over the years to be insightful, resourceful and an accomplished sailor...
... so turn down the sarcasm and disagree with a bit of respect.

[atoll]

Originally Posted by hedgeworth

Turns out some of the important facts you presented in this discussion were not facts at all. And most of the conclusions and predictions you drew from those “facts” were exactly wrong.

I do not know if it’s the conflicts of interest you have in this matter (which you will not discuss) which led you to these erroneous conclusions. All I can say is that I have to demote you on the credibility scale for this issue down to the level of “boatman1” — the second lowest level of credibility I assign to any comments.

But do keep posting. It’s amusing.

The west has about £320 billion invested in Russia some of which DH has obviously had some dealings with,so i think he probably has a far better idea of what is going on there than many here,regardless of ideology.
probably take off your rose tinted glasses as well,some where in the middle might be real politic,we are all guilty of assuming what we read in the media is the truth.

[hedgeworth]

Originally Posted by Pelagic

Hedgeworth after only 77 posts you are not even eligible for a credit check.

Dockhead has proven himself over the years to be insightful, resourceful and an accomplished sailor...
... so turn down the sarcasm and disagree with a bit of respect.

I’ve been on this board more than a decade under a different name. Because I was in the business. You know not of what you speak.

Now that I’m retired and able to speak my mind, I think I shall. I think you’re right about DH’s sailing related contributions. That’s why I made a distinction in my post between this thread and others.

Read the whole thread. Read what he said.

[hedgeworth]

Originally Posted by Pelagic

Hedgeworth after only 77 posts you are not even eligible for a credit check.

Dockhead has proven himself over the years to be insightful, resourceful and an accomplished sailor...
... so turn down the sarcasm and disagree with a bit of respect.

DH is a big boy. He can answer for his own posts.

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by hedgeworth

Turns out some of the important facts you presented in this discussion were not facts at all. And most of the conclusions and predictions you drew from those “facts” were exactly wrong.

I do not know if it’s the conflicts of interest you have in this matter (which you will not discuss) which led you to these erroneous conclusions. All I can say is that I have to demote you on the credibility scale for this issue down to the level of “boatman1” — the second lowest level of credibility I assign to any comments.

But do keep posting. It’s amusing.

You are welcome to make whatever conclusions you are, about anything, anyone posts. Die Gedanken sind frei, as the Germans say.

But I posted exactly correct information, and my predictions have unfortunately come true. If you want to dispute any particular point, feel free. Glad to discuss.

With the comment, however, that, that I was not quite right about how the military situation would develop. I predicted that there would be an extensive aeriel bombardment and use of stand-off weapons first, with ground forces moving in only after thorough neutralization of air and air defense resources and other military infrastructure -- like we did in Iraq. In order to reduce the risk of large scale ground conflict. In the event, however, massive ground forces, including tanks, moved in immediately, in parallel with the predicted cruise missiles and aerial bombardment. I didn't expect them to be this bold.

We don't have much information yet as to how it's going, but casualties seem to be pretty light on both sides, on the order of 50 casualties reported on each side as of the middle of the day, which is very little considering the forces involved. There are a lot of cell phone videos and first hand accounts in Ukrainian and Russian social media -- surprisingly, the Internet has not been shut down in Ukraine, nor apparenlty the mobile phone networks. Russian APCs are shown deep in the country, Russians set up checkpoints on roads. Airfields and air defense installations all over the country have been obliterated. C&C posts have been hit by cruise missiles. From what we can see, it looks a little like the American attack on Serbia in the late 90's -- similar weapons and tactics.

The Russians claim to have already neutralized Ukrainian air defenses and air force, and Ukrainians don't dispute this. Ukrainians claim to have shot down 5 Russian aircraft. Russians claim they are meeting little resistance except in Donbas, where the Ukrainian militias (not regular forces) are fighting hard. Casualty levels reported so far seem to confirm that. But it's way too early to say this won't be bloody. I did not expect a full scale ground assault on the first day, but here we are.

I have close people and business interests in both countries and this is not a good day for me.

It's a really dark day not only in Ukraine, but also in Russia. There is a great deal of public outcry inside Russia over this. As I predicted, Putin's position inside the country is more precarious than it looks from the outside.

As I predicted, there is a significant backlash inside Russia against this fratricidal war. The highly respected Russian newspaper, Nezavisimaya Gazeta, will be printed tomorrow in two languages -- Russian and Ukrainian. The editor, Nobel Peace Prize winner Dmitri Muratov, probably the most respected journalist in Russia, said "Because we do not recognize Ukraine as an enemy, and the Ukrainian language as an enemy. And we will never recognize it,” This is extraordinary. Read about it here in English: https://www.forumdaily.com/en/nam-st...inskom-yazyke/ This is an opinion which will be shared by millions of Russians. I wrote here several times that Russians don't consider Ukrainians to be foreigners.

An extraordinary chorus of voices from Russian public figures has denounced the invasion, including 30 independent news outlets: https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/...ine-war-a76565 There will be a protest this evening in Moscow.

Putin, as I predicted, is in a much more precarious position than people in the West imagine. He is going to great lengths to avoid bloodshed in Ukraine -- using precision weapons, announcing that Ukrainian soldiers who lay down their weapons can simply go home. Knowing that Russians won't tolerate a bloody war with their own people. Whether he will manage to avoid large-scale bloodshed with such a massive attack is doubtful. This is a horrible tragedy. I've been on the phone all day with people from both countries. Everyone is in shock.

[Pelagic]

Originally Posted by hedgeworth

.

Now that I’m retired and able to speak my mind, I think I shall.....

Lol... says a lot. Troll away

Edit ...Thanks DH for this latest insight.... and fingers crossed for your friends
My hopes are that internal pressures will prevail against Putin.

[hedgeworth]

Originally Posted by Pelagic

Lol... says a lot. Troll away

Calling out deliberate disinformation about $5 billion facts is not trolling. Again, I encourage you to read the entire thread.

[hedgeworth]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

You are welcome to make whatever conclusions you are, about anything, anyone posts. Die Gedanken sind frei, as the Germans say.

But I posted exactly correct information, and my predictions have unfortunately come true. If you want to dispute any particular point, feel free. Glad to discuss.

With the comment, however, that, that I was not quite right about how the military situation would develop. I predicted that there would be an extensive aeriel bombardment and use of stand-off weapons first, with ground forces moving in only after thorough neutralization of air and air defense resources and other military infrastructure -- like we did in Iraq. In order to reduce the risk of large scale ground conflict. In the event, however, massive ground forces, including tanks, moved in immediately, in parallel with the predicted cruise missiles and aerial bombardment. I didn't expect them to be this bold.

We don't have much information yet as to how it's going, but casualties seem to be pretty light on both sides, on the order of 50 casualties reported on each side as of the middle of the day, which is very little considering the forces involved. There are a lot of cell phone videos and first hand accounts in Ukrainian and Russian social media -- surprisingly, the Internet has not been shut down in Ukraine, nor apparenlty the mobile phone networks. Russian APCs are shown deep in the country, Russians set up checkpoints on roads. Airfields and air defense installations all over the country have been obliterated. C&C posts have been hit by cruise missiles. From what we can see, it looks a little like the American attack on Serbia in the late 90's -- similar weapons and tactics.

The Russians claim to have already neutralized Ukrainian air defenses and air force, and Ukrainians don't dispute this. Ukrainians claim to have shot down 5 Russian aircraft. Russians claim they are meeting little resistance except in Donbas, where the Ukrainian militias (not regular forces) are fighting hard. Casualty levels reported so far seem to confirm that. But it's way too early to say this won't be bloody. I did not expect a full scale ground assault on the first day, but here we are.

I have close people and business interests in both countries and this is not a good day for me.

It's a really dark day not only in Ukraine, but also in Russia. There is a great deal of public outcry inside Russia over this. As I predicted, Putin's position inside the country is more precarious than it looks from the outside.

As I predicted, there is a significant backlash inside Russia against this fratricidal war. The highly respected Russian newspaper, Nezavisimaya Gazeta, will be printed tomorrow in two languages -- Russian and Ukrainian. The editor, Nobel Peace Prize winner Dmitri Muratov, probably the most respected journalist in Russia, said "Because we do not recognize Ukraine as an enemy, and the Ukrainian language as an enemy. And we will never recognize it,” This is extraordinary. Read about it here in English: https://www.forumdaily.com/en/nam-st...inskom-yazyke/ This is an opinion which will be shared by millions of Russians. I wrote here several times that Russians don't consider Ukrainians to be foreigners.

An extraordinary chorus of voices from Russian public figures has denounced the invasion, including 30 independent news outlets: https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/...ine-war-a76565 There will be a protest this evening in Moscow.

Putin, as I predicted, is in a much more precarious position than people in the West imagine. He is going to great lengths to avoid bloodshed in Ukraine -- using precision weapons, announcing that Ukrainian soldiers who lay down their weapons can simply go home. Knowing that Russians won't tolerate a bloody war with their own people. Whether he will manage to avoid large-scale bloodshed with such a massive attack is doubtful. This is a horrible tragedy. I've been on the phone all day with people from both countries. Everyone is in shock.

Really? Do you think Putin is going to great links to avoid blood shed? Really?

[LittleWing77]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

It's a really dark day not only in Ukraine, but also in Russia. There is a great deal of public outcry inside Russia over this.

Everyone is in shock.

Dockhead,

Thank you for your thoughtful post.

I do hope, as you say, that Putin's position in his own country is more precarious than it seems. I also hope the Russian people do not want this, and moreover, will not stand for this.

I would only add that *I'm* in shock - and have no ties to Ukraine whatsoever and am far across the pond in Canada.

The President of our Canadian Ukranian Association was interviewed on CBC this morning and she said, "From today, the world has changed forever." <Gulp>

Unbelievable. Absolutely unbelievable.
LittleWing77

[atoll]

Originally Posted by GordMay

Russia's naval build-up covers both the Black Sea, next to Ukraine, and the Mediterrean. Part of the forces deployed appear focused on anti-ship capabilities.
➥ https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news...e-off-ukraine/

Disturbingly close to the Suez canal,if anybody was thinking of closing the Bosphorous

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by hedgeworth

Really? Do you think Putin is going to great links to avoid blood shed? Really?

Yes. Why are you surprised? He can't afford it. The backlash will bring him down.


I wrote earlier in this thread that not only will he lose support of the Russian public -- who are much more averse to war than Americans are, still remembering tens of millions of their own dead in WWII, and the bloody mess in Afghanistan. But he can't even count on the Russian Army not to revolt.



And I think he's miscalculated here, because I think it will be really hard to do this in "surgical way", especially using large masses of ground forces from the first day. The U.S. also found it impossible so I'm not sure why Putin things he can manage it. It's a very, very, bad day.