War in Ukraine/Med Cruising

[jmh2002]

Originally Posted by Lake-Effect

...it's dishonest for us in the West to pretend that Ukraine isn't intending to join NATO...

Correct. Ukraine wants to join NATO - but that is not the same as Ukraine will join NATO.

And as far as public opinion is concerned this is a relevantly recent desire, as you can see through various polls over the last 10 years or more.

Although it has certainly been talked about before there wasn't much public interest in it, and simply from historical precedence Ukrainians remained quite suspicious of the USA until relevantly recently.

The real desire and public support for Ukraine to join NATO has only started to increase since Russia annexed Crimea, invaded Donbas, and starting killing Ukrainians.

Even then it took quite a lot for public support to be more than 50% which only happened relatively recently.

Putin has a habit of making happen, what he public states he does not want to happen.

I mentioned some other thoughts on the NATO topic in an earlier post:

Originally Posted by jmh2002

Please also note that the eastern european countries that joined NATO (and the EU) rushed headlong to join. Why? Because after decades under the yoke they full well understand that any failings of the west (and there are many) are still much less worse than being under the domination of Russia, the Soviet system, and Communism.

There is only one nation in wider Europe that has steadily built up it's military, has annexed (or otherwise) the territory of multiple neighbours, and despite claiming the complete opposite is about to further invade the neighbour that it claims is it's 'brother' nation.

[letsgetsailing3]

Originally Posted by goboatingnow

IN my opinion just ignoring Russias concerns is exactly why we are in this mess

Russia's biggest concern seems to be that they're no longer the Soviet Union.

Nobody is interested in invading Russia. Or has been, since WWII.

The primary interest in that area is protection FROM Russia, who has a bad habit of invading her neighbors under false pretense.

[atoll]

Originally Posted by jmh2002

Just a polite note (again) for everyone please:

Ukraine is not ‘the Ukraine’ and why it matters now
https://kyivindependent.com/opinion/...t-matters-now/

Lets hope it does not become West and East!

Funny though high school geography lessons always conjured up a sense of grandeur and majesty for the countries that were prefixed with "The",rather than implied colonial connotations or anything derogatory.

[goboatingnow]

Originally Posted by letsgetsailing3

Russia's biggest concern seems to be that they're no longer the Soviet Union.

Nobody is interested in invading Russia. Or has been, since WWII.

The primary interest in that area is protection FROM Russia, who has joined a list of nations that have a bad habit of invading her neighbors under false pretense.

fixed that for you

The point is telling Russia its not going to be invaded isn't the point , Russia is ringed by its perceived enemies, This makes nations nervous, nervous nations react !

[jmh2002]

An interesting point about the general subject of ignoring Russia's interests. And I will speak generally because I'm not going to look up all the dates and references.

But generally, in the years following the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia was invited into the western sphere, in the hope that they would turn towards whatever you want to call it - europe, the west, the international norms, etc.

Massive investment flowed, Russia and Russians became present and a normal part of Europe again, both as tourists and businessmen, etc, etc.

Russia's military even 'excercised' with NATO at one point.

But it seems that there was a plan all along which the West, especially Europe should have had it's eyes way more open to - they were somewhat blinded by the Russian money flowing in Europe, and especially by Germany's policy of 'Ostpolitik' and 'Wandel durch Handel' / Change through Trade - Germany was the lead nation of Europe during this time.

However, in very simple terms, Russia simply used this opportunity to:

- build up it's war chest
- rearm it's military
- infiltrate the EU

And then when they felt strong enough, reverse their course and become an aggressor again.

You even see similar moves on a smaller scale from countries like Poland and Hungary, and to a lesser extent Czech and Slovakia.

With EU development money - billions and billions of it - these countries have been repaired and rebuilt into successful economies, and (partially/mostly) functioning democracies.

But the same type of problem occurred, once they became strong enough again they started pushing back, started disagreeing with the club that they were so eager to join, the club that financed all their redevelopment, and the rules of the club that they agreed to abide by.

At least with those countries the club, the EU, has more leverage over them than they do over Russia, and steps are being taken to reign in the more divisive actions.


So whilst I understand what is meant by 'ignoring Russia's interests' - Russia also had the choice, the choice to make it's interests more aligned with Europe and the West, but they decided themselves to walk away from this, and to follow a different path.

And at that time they were certainly not pushed into that choice by any type of belligerent NATO or anything. NATO and EU military was at it's lowest level for decades.

This was a choice made by Putin, just as you see now, to return Russia to it's historical greatness.

It didn't have to be like this. Russia made a conscious choice to make it like this.

(forgive me please for some over simplification - it's just a short forum post)

[Muaddib1116]

To me it seems more likely that these events were precipitated by the weakness seen in the bungled American withdrawal from Afghanistan and the defeat of Angela Merkel, possibly also the defeat of Netanyahu, than any sort of imminent admittance of Ukraine to NATO.

[Statistical]

Originally Posted by goboatingnow

fixed that for you

The point is telling Russia its not going to be invaded isn't the point , Russia is ringed by its perceived enemies, This makes nations nervous, nervous nations react !

Nuclear powers don't get invaded. How exactly would that work NATO invades Russia (which BTW doesn't require Ukraine). Despite taking utterly horrific losses the kind of losses not seen since WWII and not something any modern Western Nation will accept anymore they "win" decisively against Russian forces.

Then what. Russia goes "oh well it was good while it lasted" and lowers their flag forever. Of course not. Keys would turn in missile silos and having lost the military campaign it wouldn't be strikes against military forces but instead strikes against population centers (so called "counter value" response). Every major city in NATO nations turns into radioactive glass for the next couple centuries. Entirely possible in the confusion the nuclear exchange leads to retaliations and pulls China into it leading to nuclear winter for the planet for a couple decades.

Nobody is invading Russia the same way nobody is invading the US or UK or any other nuclear power. Nuclear powers don't get invaded. Still even if you think nuclear power get invaded, if NATO wants to invade Russia they don't need the Ukraine. Do you really think the Ukraine's pathetically outdated military and infrastructure is the lynchpin in this master plan to invade a nuclear power?

If every nation with a border on Russia was NATO not a whole lot would be different other than Russia's dreams of recreating the Soviet Union would be dead forever.

[letsgetsailing3]

Originally Posted by Muaddib1116

To me it seems more likely that these events were precipitated by the weakness seen in the bungled American withdrawal from Afghanistan and the defeat of Angela Merkel, possibly also the defeat of Netanyahu, than any sort of imminent admittance of Ukraine to NATO.

That makes a lot more sense.

Never listen to what Putin says. Always watch what Putin does.

[jmh2002]

Originally Posted by Muaddib1116

To me it seems more likely that these events were precipitated by the weakness seen in the bungled American withdrawal from Afghanistan and the defeat of Angela Merkel, possibly also the defeat of Netanyahu, than any sort of imminent admittance of Ukraine to NATO.

Agreed, I think it's just that now is a convenient moment for a lot of different reasons, including the ones you mentioned. I wrote a longer post on this subject earlier: https://www.cruisersforum.com/forums...ml#post3578856

Here's an excerpt:

Originally Posted by jmh2002

Why now is I think answered by the coinciding of different events such as:

- US pivoting to China
- Europe in general also trying to pivot to Asia
- Europe appearing disunited (real or imagined)
- Russia having built up it's war chest
- Nord Stream 2 finished construction and waiting approval and use
- Alternative energy production shortage in Europe last year
- Low amount of stored gas in Europe last year
- High demand for energy from China (Russia has an alternative market)
- Russian military at it's highest state of ability for decades

etc, etc.

So whilst Russia will have been preparing for this for years, as they have prepared various scenarios for Ukraine for years, including what happened in 2014, they of course wait if possible, for a more appropriate moment to implement a scenario...

[goboatingnow]

Originally Posted by Statistical

Nuclear powers don't get invaded. How exactly would that work NATO invades Russia (which BTW doesn't require Ukraine). Despite taking utterly horrific losses the kind of losses not seen since WWII and not something any modern Western Nation will accept anymore they "win" decisively against Russian forces.

Then what. Russia goes "oh well it was good while it lasted" and lowers their flag forever. Of course not. Keys would turn in missile silos and having lost the military campaign it wouldn't be strikes against military forces but instead strikes against population centers (so called "counter value" response). Every major city in NATO nations turns into radioactive glass for the next couple centuries.

Nobody is invading Russia the same way nobody is invading the US or UK or any other nuclear power. Nuclear powers don't get invaded. If NATO wants to invade Russia they don't need the Ukraine. Do you really think the Ukraine's pathetically outdated military and infrastructure is the lynchpin in this master plan to invade a nuclear power and risk hundreds of millions of allied civilian deaths in a nuclear holocaust.

If every nation with a border on Russia was NATO not a whole lot would be different other than Russia's dreams of recreating the Soviet Union would be dead forever.

its entirely hypothetical , what you surmise, nor is the issue a Russia invasion, Russia does not accept the imposition of these issues ( be ringed by its enemies) , just like the US did not accept missiles in Cuba, Russia believes it has sufficient military might to allow it to act on that supposition

we shall see if Putin is correct , its a big gamble for Putin, failure here will condemn russia to insignificance for decades

[letsgetsailing3]

Originally Posted by goboatingnow

we shall see if Putin is correct , its a big gamble for Putin, failure here will condemn russia to insignificance for decades

How does invading Ukraine change that? Seems to me that it speeds it up.


But I guess Putin isn't getting any younger.

[goboatingnow]

Originally Posted by letsgetsailing3

How does invading Ukraine change that? Seems to me that it speeds it up.


But I guess Putin isn't getting any younger.

Annexing part of ukraine, gives Putin a propaganda coup at home and amongst Russia's "sphere of influence "

Putin is determined to expand Russia's " sphere of influence " , perhaps not to the scale of the Soviet Union, but He wants to expand it.

[Statistical]

Originally Posted by goboatingnow

Russia does not accept the imposition of these issues ( be ringed by its enemies)

That is far too simplistic. Is every non-NATO nation a friend of Russia? Is it that black and white in your world.

Pretty sure Ukraine is an enemy of Russia already. Russia invading it in 2014 certainly didn't help and Russia invading it against probably didn't move it back into the friend category.

So Ukraine in or not in NATO is not a friend of Russia.

Also the idea of "ringed" is naive and simplistic in terms of modern warfare. There are enough NATO nations with borders to Russia if tomorrow NATO wanted to invade Russia the lack of Ukraine would be no obstacle. It isn't like the Pentagon is going "damn damn damn" we could totally invaded Russia in stuff but not without Ukraine.

The only thing Russia has done is ensure no nation bordering it that is already a member of NATO will ever leave. Leaving would be as good as inviting an invasion by Russia.

This rationalizing and justifying for naked aggression is pathetic and tiring. Russia annexed territory because it wanted to annex territory and thought it can get away with it. It has done it three times already and is going for a fourth.

[jmh2002]

Originally Posted by Statistical

Nuclear powers don't get invaded...

...If every nation with a border on Russia was NATO not a whole lot would be different other than Russia's dreams of recreating the Soviet Union would be dead forever.

Good post. I know you have reiterated the Nuclear defense aspect several times, but nobody is really listening...

As you said, nobody is going to invade Russia. Nobody is or even was thinking about invading or even attacking Russia with missiles. Full stop, end of story.

If there were ever western missile strikes on Russia they would be in retaliation for something very very serious, and even then the escalation would be immediate - Russia has conventional missles to strike / strike back at Europe with too.

Are countries trying to contain Russia economically? Yes course, just like everyone tries to contain each other economically. Russia practices economic constraint and economic warfare too.

As I mentioned earlier, Russia could have integrated economically, politically, and with international norms, after the fall of the Soviet Union, and they were even moving in that direction for a while - but then they decided to take a totally different path.

[goboatingnow]

This rationalizing and justifying for naked aggression is pathetic and tiring. Russia annexed territory because it wanted to annex territory and thought it can get away with it. It has done it three times already and is going for a fourth.

Im not rationalising naked aggression , no more then the US invasion of Iraq and Afghanistan was naked aggression so too is Russia's annexation

what Im saying is that naked aggression is and has been displayed by all powers that felt they could , Russia wants to join that gang

Theres no moral position here, powerful nation states attempt to do as they please , and sometimes they get away with it ! ( France and the UK tried and failed in Suez and that was the end of their extra territorial excursions, even if France had a bash in Chad later) )