War in Ukraine/Med Cruising

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by letsgetsailing3

. . .If it were just about avoiding NATO membership for Ukraine, they could have that without invasion. . .

How?

If you've figured out, what no one in Russia was smart enough to figure out all these years, maybe you can send an email really quickly to Putin, in time to stop the war

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by Statistical

Russian media reports Vladimir Putin has ordered “peacekeeping operations” to the Donetsk People’s Republic and Luhansk People’s Republic, the two territories in eastern Ukraine that Putin recognized as independent today.

And so it begins. This is like watching a car crash in slow motion.

[Statistical]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

Russia now runs agriculture on a capitalist basis, it's 100% private entierprise, and as a result of finally getting this right, Russia today the world's no. 1 exporter of wheat, by far.

I am not talking about Soviet Russia. I am talking about Russia today right this very minute. Russia is a net importer of food. Note the word net. Yes they also export food but they import even more.

Russia exports about $8B worth of wheat. They import about $30B worth of other foodstuff.

Ukraine isn't using its full potential. The productivity agriculture capacity of the country is much higher. There is rising pro-EU sentiment in the Ukraine along with rising anti-Russian sentiment.

[jmh2002]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

You said you have personal connections in Ukraine -- don't know if you read Russian, but here is what one former high official of the Russian General Staff said about it: https://nvo.ng.ru/realty/2022-02-03/3_1175_donbass.html


The author consider armed conflict in Ukraine to be not in the national interests of Russia, and to be highly risky for more or less the exact same reasons I wrote about above.

That was me actually, not @letsgetsailing3
Yes I have a direct personal connections to eastern Russian speaking Ukraine (not the separatist areas, but close enough to the fighting in 2014 that anti tank ditches were dug to defend the city and the infrastructure).

I was there when Crimea was annexed, and I was there when Donbas was invaded. An extended family member was severely wounded in the fighting and as they say these days 'sustained life changing injuries'. That doesn't describe the half of it, which I will not write here.

And a close family member has been rotating through deployments to Donbas for years now. He is currently home, but waiting to be deployed again now.

He may be killed in the fighting. We already accepted that years ago.

None of these people are Nazis, Banderists, or Fascists. Russian is their first language (although they speak Ukrainian too, most citizens are bilingual), and they live in supposed Russian leaning Russian speaking eastern Ukraine - but here they are, fighting the Russians.

And not because of any great hatred of Russia or Russians, it's not that at all. Nor was there some type of 'oppression' against Russian speakers in eastern Ukraine, that is just nonsense - don't fall for the disinformation, the propaganda.

They fight simply to defend their country, their land, their homes, their families from 'invaders'. It's not as complicated as it is sometimes made out to be...

[letsgetsailing3]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

How?

If you've figured out, what no one in Russia was smart enough to figure out all these years, maybe you can send an email really quickly to Putin, in time to stop the war

He could certainly have a talk with Biden this week instead of invading. In fact, all he needs is one dissenter in NATO to reject Ukraine membership, so he could convince any NATO member to reject Ukraine. He already has that. France and Germany voted against it in 2008.

Russia isn't interested in a diplomatic solution. Because that would leave the Ukraine with political freedom.

[jmh2002]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

You said you have personal connections in Ukraine -- don't know if you read Russian, but here is what one former high official of the Russian General Staff said about it: https://nvo.ng.ru/realty/2022-02-03/3_1175_donbass.html


The author consider armed conflict in Ukraine to be not in the national interests of Russia, and to be highly risky for more or less the exact same reasons I wrote about above.

The article you linked is very good and you should have quoted some excerpts here in english for everyone else.

Basically it is what those who chose to look and think and not be blinded by all the 'noise' understand already, even if they are Russian too, and even if they are the "ex-head of the group of the 1st direction of the 1st directorate of the Main Operational Directorate of the General Staff of the RF Armed Forces, Colonel.


But let's also not disregard that it would not be the first time that politicians, hot heads, dictators, etc, go against all rational, expert, professional advice in the attempted furtherance of their 'cause'. Does Putin fall into this category?

I'll post few direct translations of your above linked article for people below.

The basics also align with the article that I posted before from the Ukrainian perspective - there are many of these, this is just the one I had to hand and is conveniently already in english for international readers (https://kyivindependent.com/opinion/...t-predestined/)


"Some representatives of the Russian political class today argue that Russia is able to inflict a crushing defeat on Ukraine in a few hours (and shorter periods are also mentioned) if a military conflict breaks out. Let's see how such statements correspond to reality."

"To assert that no one in Ukraine will defend the regime means, in practice, complete ignorance of the military-political situation and the mood of the broad masses of the people in the neighboring state. Moreover, the degree of hatred (which, as you know, is the most effective fuel for armed struggle) in the neighboring republic in relation to Moscow is frankly underestimated. No one will meet the Russian army with bread, salt and flowers in Ukraine."

"...even the Russian-speaking population of this part of Ukraine (including such cities as Kharkov, Zaporozhye, Dnepropetrovsk, Mariupol) did not support such plans in their vast majority. The project "Novorossiya" was somehow imperceptibly blown away and quietly died."

"Now about the "powerful fire strike by Russia", which allegedly will destroy "practically all surveillance and communication systems, artillery and tank formations of the Armed Forces of Ukraine". This expression alone shows that only political workers could say such a thing."

"Of course, the MOU will inflict heavy losses on a potential enemy. But to expect to crush the armed forces of an entire state with just one such blow means to show simply unbridled optimism in the course of planning and conducting combat operations."

"It must be added by all means that the reserves of promising and high-precision weapons in the RF Armed Forces are not of any unlimited nature. Hypersonic missiles of the Zircon type are not yet in service. And the number of Kalibr (sea-launched cruise missiles), Kinzhals, Kh-101 (air-launched cruise missiles) and Iskander missiles is measured in the hundreds at best (tens in the case of Kinzhals). This arsenal is absolutely not enough to wipe out a state the size of France and with a population of more than 40 million from the face of the Earth. Namely, Ukraine is characterized by such parameters."

"Sometimes it is asserted in the Russian expert community (by fans of the Douai doctrine) that since the hypothetical military operations in Ukraine will take place under the conditions of complete dominance of Russian aircraft in the air, the war will be extremely short and will end in the shortest possible time.

At the same time, it is somehow forgotten that the armed formations of the Afghan opposition during the conflict of 1979-1989 did not have a single aircraft and not a single combat helicopter. And the war in this country dragged on for as much as 10 years. The Chechen fighters did not have a single aircraft either. And the fight against them lasted for several years and cost the federal forces a lot of blood and casualties."

"And the Armed Forces of Ukraine still have some kind of combat aircraft. As well as means of air defense.

By the way, the Ukrainian crews of the anti-aircraft missile forces (by no means Georgian ones) significantly pinched the Russian Air Force during the 2008 conflict. After the first day of hostilities, the leadership of the Russian Air Force was in frank shock from the losses incurred. And you shouldn't forget about it."

"...always remember the testament of Alexander Suvorov: "Never despise your enemy, do not consider him stupider and weaker than you.""

"An influx of volunteers from the West, which can be very numerous, is not ruled out." (my note: I believe the Poles in particular will come, even if 'unofficially').

"It is also worth recalling that the mighty Stalinist NKVD and the multi-million Soviet army fought the nationalist underground in Western Ukraine for more than 10 years. And now there is an option that the whole of Ukraine can easily go into the partisans." (my note: as I posted earlier, great armies and great empires have fallen in this way - Russia does not ignore it either)

"Serious experts emphasize that in a metropolis it is possible not only to concentrate a grouping of thousands and even tens of thousands of fighters, but also to hide it from the superior firepower of the enemy. And also to supply it with material resources for a long time and make up for losses in people and equipment." (my note: large Ukrainian cities comprise hundreds of thousands to millions of people)

"...in Ukraine there are more than enough large cities, including those with a million inhabitants. So the Russian army in the course of a hypothetical war with Ukraine may meet with far more (resistance) than just Stalingrad and Grozny."

About the author (of everything I quoted above): Mikhail Mikhailovich Khodarenok - ex-head of the group of the 1st direction of the 1st directorate of the Main Operational Directorate of the General Staff of the RF Armed Forces, Colonel

[pendragon]

Originally Posted by boatman61

There's not going to be a war... unless NATO starts one..
Its just Biden and Boris strutting like a pair of old fighting cocks trying vainly to look heroic and boost their negative ratings..
Boris for partying to much and Biden for achieving zip.
Troops pull back at the end of the exercises and it's.. "Look.. we cowed the Russian Bear" Strut Strut..
.

Ive seen al that BS before, between Kennedy and Khrustchev. The Clock, at the time was 1 minute to 12 . Both countries built so many nuclear weapons, that could destroy the planet multiple times over.
The population was totally paranoid, while the weapons companies made fortunes.

[Statistical]

Originally Posted by letsgetsailing3

He could certainly have a talk with Biden this week instead of invading. In fact, all he needs is one dissenter in NATO to reject Ukraine membership, so he could convince any NATO member to reject Ukraine. He already has that. France and Germany voted against it in 2008.

Russia isn't interested in a diplomatic solution. Because that would leave the Ukraine with political freedom.

Plus in the short term there is no chance Ukraine will be allowed to join NATO. There are a whole host of conditions to include infrastructure and military readiness that must happen. Even simple things like good roads. If NATO forces are going to defend a country they need to be able to setup effective logistic lines.

The reality though is that as time goes on anti-Russian sentiment grows in the Ukraine and pro-EU sentiment also grows. Ukranians know they can't yet join the EU but it is a far more popular long term goal that increased relations with Russia. Since the fall of the Soviet Union Russia has done nothing but shown the Ukraine it is a dangerous bully and public sentiment reflects that.

[letsgetsailing3]

What does Putin want? His aims go well beyond Ukraine. As the Atlantic’s Anne Applebaum summarizes: He “wants to put so much strain on Western and democratic institutions, especially the European Union and NATO, that they break up. He wants to keep dictators in power wherever he can, in Syria, Venezuela, and Iran. He wants to undermine America, to shrink American influence, to remove the power of the democracy rhetoric that so many people in his part of the world still associate with America. He wants America itself to fail.”




Putin is likely to get the opposite of what he wants here.

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by Statistical

I am not talking about Soviet Russia. I am talking about Russia today right this very minute. Russia is a net importer of food. Note the word net. Yes they also export food but they import even more.

Russia exports about $8B worth of wheat. They import about $30B worth of other foodstuff.

Ukraine isn't using its full potential. The productivity agriculture capacity of the country is much higher. There is rising pro-EU sentiment in the Ukraine along with rising anti-Russian sentiment.

Wheat is not Russia's only food export. Russia is a net exporter of food. $37.7 billion of exports vs. $33.9 billion of imports in 2021. See www.statistica.com Your information is not correct.



You wrote that "Russia can't feed herself", implying that hungry Russians want to grab Ukraine's "rich agriculture". This is utter nonsense. Russia has invested hundreds of billions into its agricultural sector and feeds itself very well, and feeds some other countries as well. Russia has no reason in the world to be interested in Ukraine's backwards agricultural sector.


Modern agriculture requires more than good farmland. It requires modern machines, organization, capital, organized markets, and a good and sober labor force. Ukraine has none of these things, yet. There is great potential there, certainly, but it will take decades, change of culture, and immense investments to realize that potential.

[jmh2002]

It is the rest of the world that might go hungry if Ukrainian (and/or Russian) grain and agriculture exports are restricted.

Even if those of us in the 'actual west' don't go hungry our food prices will certainly increase even further than they already have.

Here's a few articles but there are many more, just search for them:

Infographic: Russia, Ukraine and the global wheat supply
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/...ly-interactive

Ukraine: The food factor - War would send shockwaves and price hikes through global agricultural markets.
https://www.politico.eu/article/ukra...ulture-market/

A Russia-Ukraine War Could Ripple Across Africa and Asia
https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/01/22...est%20exporter.

[letsgetsailing3]

Russian President Vladimir Putin signed decrees ordering military forces into two separatist regions of Ukraine for “peacekeeping” purposes as Moscow recognized the breakaway regions’ independence Monday.



-- Washington Post

[jmh2002]

Originally Posted by letsgetsailing3

What does Putin want? His aims go well beyond Ukraine. As the Atlantic’s Anne Applebaum summarizes: He “wants to put so much strain on Western and democratic institutions, especially the European Union and NATO, that they break up. He wants to keep dictators in power wherever he can, in Syria, Venezuela, and Iran. He wants to undermine America, to shrink American influence, to remove the power of the democracy rhetoric that so many people in his part of the world still associate with America. He wants America itself to fail.”


Putin is likely to get the opposite of what he wants here.

That will almost certainly be the case. In fact it already is in terms of a 'more united west' as a generalisation.

It is certainly interesting that over all these last years, almost all the actions that Russia has taken has resulted in them getting more of what they appeared to be complaining about in the first place.

This isn't stupidity on their part (do not underestimate them), is in fact part of their modus operandi.

I think it is more about continuing to create more and more conditions for the regime's raison d'etre.

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by jmh2002

The article you linked is very good and you should have quoted some excerpts here in english for everyone else.

Basically it is what those who chose to look and think and not be blinded by all the 'noise' understand already, even if they are Russian too, and even if they are the "ex-head of the group of the 1st direction of the 1st directorate of the Main Operational Directorate of the General Staff of the RF Armed Forces, Colonel.


But let's also not disregard that it would not be the first time that politicians, hot heads, dictators, etc, go against all rational, expert, professional advice in the attempted furtherance of their 'cause'. Does Putin fall into this category?

I'll post few direct translations of your above linked article for people below.

The basics also align with the article that I posted before from the Ukrainian perspective - there are many of these, this is just the one I had to hand and is conveniently already in english for international readers (https://kyivindependent.com/opinion/...t-predestined/)


"Some representatives of the Russian political class today argue that Russia is able to inflict a crushing defeat on Ukraine in a few hours (and shorter periods are also mentioned) if a military conflict breaks out. Let's see how such statements correspond to reality."

"To assert that no one in Ukraine will defend the regime means, in practice, complete ignorance of the military-political situation and the mood of the broad masses of the people in the neighboring state. Moreover, the degree of hatred (which, as you know, is the most effective fuel for armed struggle) in the neighboring republic in relation to Moscow is frankly underestimated. No one will meet the Russian army with bread, salt and flowers in Ukraine."

"...even the Russian-speaking population of this part of Ukraine (including such cities as Kharkov, Zaporozhye, Dnepropetrovsk, Mariupol) did not support such plans in their vast majority. The project "Novorossiya" was somehow imperceptibly blown away and quietly died."

"Now about the "powerful fire strike by Russia", which allegedly will destroy "practically all surveillance and communication systems, artillery and tank formations of the Armed Forces of Ukraine". This expression alone shows that only political workers could say such a thing."

"Of course, the MOU will inflict heavy losses on a potential enemy. But to expect to crush the armed forces of an entire state with just one such blow means to show simply unbridled optimism in the course of planning and conducting combat operations."

"It must be added by all means that the reserves of promising and high-precision weapons in the RF Armed Forces are not of any unlimited nature. Hypersonic missiles of the Zircon type are not yet in service. And the number of Kalibr (sea-launched cruise missiles), Kinzhals, Kh-101 (air-launched cruise missiles) and Iskander missiles is measured in the hundreds at best (tens in the case of Kinzhals). This arsenal is absolutely not enough to wipe out a state the size of France and with a population of more than 40 million from the face of the Earth. Namely, Ukraine is characterized by such parameters."

"Sometimes it is asserted in the Russian expert community (by fans of the Douai doctrine) that since the hypothetical military operations in Ukraine will take place under the conditions of complete dominance of Russian aircraft in the air, the war will be extremely short and will end in the shortest possible time.

At the same time, it is somehow forgotten that the armed formations of the Afghan opposition during the conflict of 1979-1989 did not have a single aircraft and not a single combat helicopter. And the war in this country dragged on for as much as 10 years. The Chechen fighters did not have a single aircraft either. And the fight against them lasted for several years and cost the federal forces a lot of blood and casualties."

"And the Armed Forces of Ukraine still have some kind of combat aircraft. As well as means of air defense.

By the way, the Ukrainian crews of the anti-aircraft missile forces (by no means Georgian ones) significantly pinched the Russian Air Force during the 2008 conflict. After the first day of hostilities, the leadership of the Russian Air Force was in frank shock from the losses incurred. And you shouldn't forget about it."

"...always remember the testament of Alexander Suvorov: "Never despise your enemy, do not consider him stupider and weaker than you.""

"An influx of volunteers from the West, which can be very numerous, is not ruled out." (my note: I believe the Poles in particular will come, even if 'unofficially').

"It is also worth recalling that the mighty Stalinist NKVD and the multi-million Soviet army fought the nationalist underground in Western Ukraine for more than 10 years. And now there is an option that the whole of Ukraine can easily go into the partisans." (my note: as I posted earlier, great armies and great empires have fallen in this way - Russia does not ignore it either)

"Serious experts emphasize that in a metropolis it is possible not only to concentrate a grouping of thousands and even tens of thousands of fighters, but also to hide it from the superior firepower of the enemy. And also to supply it with material resources for a long time and make up for losses in people and equipment." (my note: large Ukrainian cities comprise hundreds of thousands to millions of people)

"...in Ukraine there are more than enough large cities, including those with a million inhabitants. So the Russian army in the course of a hypothetical war with Ukraine may meet with far more (resistance) than just Stalingrad and Grozny."

About the author (of everything I quoted above): Mikhail Mikhailovich Khodarenok - ex-head of the group of the 1st direction of the 1st directorate of the Main Operational Directorate of the General Staff of the RF Armed Forces, Colonel

So you're a Russian speaker too? Ochen' khorosho!


Yes, the article is very good, and outlines well the risks, possibly exaggerating some of them, but that's healthy too.


Note that the author was in the innermost circles of the General Staff, and the article was published on the front page of the main military journal in Russia.


This tells me that the Russians are thinking very carefully about this. It tells me that they are listening to a variety of assessments and are not afraid of diverse viewpoints, at least within the military. I think it's a sign of strength. I bet they will not do this in a stupid way. I bet the military leadership are dead set against a bloody conflict and I doubt that Putin will push against their expert assessment. This will be done in a careful, surgical way.



But let's see. We don't have long to wait now.

[jmh2002]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

Yes, the article is very good, and outlines well the risks, possibly exaggerating some of them, but that's healthy too.

Note that the author was in the innermost circles of the General Staff, and the article was published on the front page of the main military journal in Russia.

Yes my earlier suggestions that 'Ukrainians will fight and defend' were simplistic for the forum masses (I follow it in more detail), but here you have even a Russian military expert (agreeing with me...? )

Originally Posted by Dockhead

This tells me that the Russians are thinking very carefully about this. It tells me that they are listening to a variety of assessments and are not afraid of diverse viewpoints, at least within the military.

My concern despite all rational assessments, even by the Russian military establishment, is as I wrote earlier:

Originally Posted by jmh2002

...let's also not disregard that it would not be the first time that politicians, hot heads, dictators, etc, go against all rational, expert, professional advice in the attempted furtherance of their 'cause'. Does Putin fall into this category?