War in Ukraine/Med Cruising

[goboatingnow]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

The Russians don't carry about "areas". This has nothing to do with territory. This is about stopping NATO. To do that, the Russians will have to either remove the current government, and install a new one which will sign a treaty at gunpoint guarantying that this will not happen, or push the Ukrainians into a capitulation prior to military action.

I don’t see that happening. I don’t think Russia has the ability or desire to essentially subjugate all of Ukraine. It’s in the process of demonstrating to NATO and it’s own domestic audience it can’t be pushed around.

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by goboatingnow

I’m don’t see the Russians moving unless the Ukrainians react to the decree militarily.

The Ukrainians are not going to do anything now which might provoke the Russians, just in case this has all been a bluff. Even if that's a slim chance. They are not stupid.



No one outside the Russian general staff knows yet what the real plan is, but my guess is the Russians are going to attack, and soon. They will stage a fake provocation by the Ukrainians, or maybe they won't even bother with that, then the leaders of the ridiculous "peoples' republics" will request immediate military assistance, and then the Russians will roll.



We shall see.

[letsgetsailing3]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

The Russians don't carry about "areas". This has nothing to do with territory. This is about stopping NATO. To do that, the Russians will have to either remove the current government, and install a new one which will sign a treaty at gunpoint guarantying that this will not happen, or push the Ukrainians into a capitulation prior to military action.

This isn't at all about stopping NATO. This could be achieved without invasion.

This is about regaining control of Ukraine.

Let's call it what it is. A land grab.

Let's also hope the plan is to take the separatist regions, and not the whole country. But so far, it doesn't look like that.

[Statistical]

Originally Posted by jmh2002

Here is an article from 15 Feb 2022 that some of you might interesting, especially those with less direct knowledge of the situation:

Illia Ponomarenko: Even if Russia attacks, Ukraine’s fall is not predestined:
https://kyivindependent.com/opinion/...t-predestined/

And a specific for @Dockhead in relation to how willing Ukrainians might be to fight and defend their country:

"According to a Feb. 15 poll, 58% of Ukrainians say they are ready to offer resistance to Russian occupation, 37% of them said they’d want to take up arms."

37% of 40m people is almost 15 million citizens who 'said they'd want to take up arms'

Even allowing for large margins of error (or even bravado) that that is still a significant amount of the population.

Yeah I have to imagine most Ukrainians know Russian aggressions won't end.

1) Ferment dissent in a region.
2) Pretend the dissenters represent all the people in the region.
3) Recognize the region as an independent state <- you are here now.
4) Invade I mean send in military forces to protect the newly independent state from Ukrainian aggression.
5) Some years later, recognize the "vote" of the independent state to become part of Russia.
6) Go to step #1.

Russia doesn't have to annex all of Ukraine at once. They can eat it up one bite at a time. Meanwhile plenty of sensible people will say Ukraine shouldn't defend itself, it isn't worth it, it is just one small region, etc.

[Statistical]

Originally Posted by goboatingnow

I’m don’t see the Russians moving unless the Ukrainians react to the decree militarily. Russia needs a pretext.

Ukrainians aren't going to react to Russia militarily. Russia already has its pretext. It now "needs" to defend these independent territories from Ukrainian aggression. Throw up a few more false flag nobody believes it but Russia "events".

See now Russia has no choice but to invade I mean provide military assistance to this free independent region.

[atoll]

It will all be done and dusted by the 23rd,which is "Defenders of Mother Russia day",a fait accomplis then life can get back to normal and the mosex and rouble,can come out of freefall
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Defend...Fatherland_Day

[jmh2002]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

The Russians don't carry about "areas". This has nothing to do with territory. This is about stopping NATO. To do that, the Russians will have to either remove the current government, and install a new one which will sign a treaty at gunpoint guarantying that this will not happen, or push the Ukrainians into a capitulation prior to military action.

Mostly right. My push back about the separatist areas was because @goboatingnow seemed particularly focused on that, on on what Ukraine would do - 'would they invade themselves'.

The official recognition by Russia of the separatist areas won't change the situation on the ground initially, and won't cause Ukraine to 'do' anything initially.

If anything it will help Ukraine as far as any reaction and support from the international community. It also means the Minsk agreements are now dead too. Ultimately this is probably good for Ukraine too.

Where it hurts Ukraine is that official recognition will allow Russia to officially send in it's army to defend these areas.

In practice the Russian army is already there, Russian weapons are already there, and Russian support is already there.

So this will only officialise what is already happening there and allow Russia to officially reinforce the military in the separatist areas.

In general this part of things is probably good for Ukraine - no more smoke and mirrors, no more of Russia's nonsense that "they are not a party to the conflict..."

At least the situation regarding the occupation and annexation will be clear for the international community to understand.

Now to see what else might happen in other areas

[jmh2002]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

The Ukrainians are not going to do anything now which might provoke the Russians, just in case this has all been a bluff. Even if that's a slim chance. They are not stupid.

Correct.

Originally Posted by Dockhead

No one outside the Russian general staff knows yet what the real plan is, but my guess is the Russians are going to attack, and soon. They will stage a fake provocation by the Ukrainians, or maybe they won't even bother with that, then the leaders of the ridiculous "peoples' republics" will request immediate military assistance, and then the Russians will roll.

That's already happening (part of which you already linked to earlier). Expect more, and then the Russians rolling.

The Russian language dark web is also suggesting cyber attacks against Ukrainian infrastructure, particularly the banks, will start today (Mon 22 Feb).

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by goboatingnow

I don’t see that happening. I don’t think Russia has the ability or desire to essentially subjugate all of Ukraine. It’s in the process of demonstrating to NATO and it’s own domestic audience it can’t be pushed around.

I agree completely, that Russia has no desire to subjugate Ukraine. As one Ukrainian friend of mine said (in that typical Ukrainian self-deprecating way) "What do they need with 40 million more alkasha ("alcoholics"), blyadi ("whores"), and vzyatniki ("bribe-takers")? They've already got plenty of their own! Of course they will never annex us!"

But there are different military scenarios, not involving either a protracted bloody ground war, or fully conquering the whole country, which would make is possible for them to bring down the current government and put in something more compliant, and then get a treaty which satisfies their security concerns. I'm guessing they will go for something like that. Certainly Donbas and Luhansk are not their objectives. They would gain nothing by tearing off those bits, which are strategically meaningless, and are presently full of mercenary nutcases and incredibly miserable people.

[Statistical]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

I agree completely, that Russia has no desire to subjugate Ukraine. As one Ukrainian friend of mine said (in that typical Ukrainian self-deprecating way) "What do they need with 40 million more alkasha ("alcoholics"), blyadi ("whores"), and vzyatniki ("bribe-takers")? They've already got plenty of their own! Of course they will never annex us!"

But there are different military scenarios, not involving either a protracted bloody ground war, or fully conquering the whole country, which would make is possible for them to bring down the current government and put in something more compliant, and then get a treaty which satisfies their security concerns. I'm guessing they will go for something like that. Certainly Donbas and Luhansk are not their objectives. They would gain nothing by tearing off those bits, which are strategically meaningless, and are presently full of mercenary nutcases and incredibly miserable people.

Ukraine was the bread basket of the Soviet Union. Russia doesn't even have enough arable lands to feed its population. Food and agricultural goods is one of their largest imports.

Russia only significant export is gas and oil which will very likely decline not go away but decline over the coming decades. Anything else of value to include its once vaulted space program has been run into the ground by the oligarchs.

So you have a failing petrol state with an incredibly large military and dreams of its former glory with no way to feed its people. I wonder why they would have any interest in annexing an agricultural powerhouse like the Ukraine.

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by letsgetsailing3

This isn't at all about stopping NATO. This could be achieved without invasion.

This is about regaining control of Ukraine.

Let's call it what it is. A land grab.

Let's also hope the plan is to take the separatist regions, and not the whole country. But so far, it doesn't look like that.

I don't know how to say this in a more subtle way, but you are just completely and totally wrong about this. 1/8 of the entire land area of the planet earth is already inside the borders of Russia. "Land grabs" are the farthest things from their minds. You could drop the entire U.S. into Siberia and not find it again without a lengthy search. And the last thing in the world they need is to take responsibility for the care and feeding and the pensions of 40 million people with a GPD per capita 3x less than Russians, the poorest country in Europe. It would bankrupt them. Just bringing the infrastructure up to Russian standards by itself would bankrupt them.



And they don't care about those s-holes Donbas and Luhansk. Those areas are certainly not their objective.


No, sorry, their objective is purely geopolitics. A red line against NATO and Western subversion. That's all they care about. And they will achieve it without financially untenable annexation. They will somehow or other achieve either capituation, or toppling the government, and installation of a puppet government who will sign a treaty giving them what they want. Maybe some Russian bases in Ukraine. Something like that. And they will do it with whatever force is necessary, but with as little blood as possible, considering the extreme risks to them from a bloody conflict.

[Statistical]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

I don't know how to say this in a more subtle way, but you are just completely and totally wrong about this. 1/8 of the entire land area of the planet earth is already inside the borders of Russia.

Most of the land in Russia is worthless. The part of Siberia that don't have oil or gas under it you couldn't give away. Hell worthless isn't even exactly true. Due to Soviet policies to settling that land it now created a perpetual cost for essentially no benefit so it is worse than worthless.

They will somehow or other achieve either capituation, or toppling the government, and installation of a puppet government who will sign a treaty giving them what they want. Maybe some Russian bases in Ukraine.

Zero chance of that. Anti-Russian sentiment in the Ukraine has increased over the last decade. This independent recognition and massing troops on their borders has only increased it further. The inevitable invasion I mean policing action in the newly recognized territories will increase it even further.

[letsgetsailing3]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

I don't know how to say this in a more subtle way, but you are just completely and totally wrong about this. 1/8 of the entire land area of the planet earth is already inside the borders of Russia. "Land grabs" are the farthest things from their minds. You could drop the entire U.S. into Siberia and not find it again without a lengthy search. And the last thing in the world they need is to take responsibility for the care and feeding and the pensions of 40 million people with a GPD per capita 3x less than Russians, the poorest country in Europe. It would bankrupt them. Just bringing the infrastructure up to Russian standards by itself would bankrupt them.

And they don't care about those s-holes Donbas and Luhansk. Those areas are certainly not their objective.

No, sorry, their objective is purely geopolitics. A red line against NATO and Western subversion. That's all they care about. And they will achieve it without financially untenable annexation. They will somehow or other achieve either capituation, or toppling the government, and installation of a puppet government who will sign a treaty giving them what they want. Maybe some Russian bases in Ukraine. Something like that. And they will do it with whatever force is necessary, but with as little blood as possible, considering the extreme risks to them from a bloody conflict.

Geopolitic, yes.

Threat of NATO, no. They want the Soviet Union back. Was Crimea a threat? No. Land grab. Was Ossetia a threat? No. Land grab. Any area they can find with Russian speakers they're sending money into and trying to create a separatist movement. Which later gives them a reason to invade.

It's not about square footage. And it's not about NATO. They have plenty of worthless land. This is a battle for pride.

They want to own the government of Ukraine. Just like they own Belarus. They want to put their puppet in as a leader, and to do away with democracy there. They don't want the Ukraine having a relationship with the West. This is old school, pre-UN thinking. And exactly what the UN was designed to help litigate. But the UN only works if powerful countries accept the idea.

If it were just about avoiding NATO membership for Ukraine, they could have that without invasion.

Russia doesn't want to be a cooperative nation in the world. If they invade, they will find themselves more isolated.

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by Statistical

Ukraine was the bread basket of the Soviet Union. Russia doesn't even have enough arable lands to feed its population. Food and agricultural goods is one of their largest imports.

Russia only significant export is gas and oil which will very likely decline not go away but decline over the coming decades. Anything else of value to include its once vaulted space program has been run into the ground by the oligarchs.

So you have a failing petrol state with an incredibly large military and dreams of its former glory with no way to feed its people. I wonder why they would have any interest in annexing an agricultural powerhouse like the Ukraine.

Where do people get this stuff? This information is 40 years out of date! Or 140 years, depending which part of this post you're talking about.

The Soviet Union couldn't feed itself, because of Communism. Perhaps you didn't hear -- did you know that the Russians did away with Communism 30 years ago?

Russia now runs agriculture on a capitalist basis, it's 100% private entierprise, and as a result of finally getting this right, Russia today the world's no. 1 exporter of wheat, by far. Russia exports more wheat than the U.S. and the EU combined. Ukraine exports a mere 16 million tons of wheat a year. Russia grows about 6 times more food than Ukraine -- almost double per capita.

Ukraine WAS an agricultural powerhouse, the "breadbasket", etc. 140 years ago. Communism ruined that. Ukraine only broke up its Communist type collective farms in 2000, almost 10 years later than the Russians, and unlike the Russians who have real banks with money which lend to farmers, the Ukrainians still don't have access to much finance. Ukraine has some fantastic farmland, but it will take better economic conditions and a decade or two of development, to become any kind of "powerhouse" again.

Russia couldn't care less about Ukrainian agriculture.

[Statistical]

Russian media reports Vladimir Putin has ordered “peacekeeping operations” to the Donetsk People’s Republic and Luhansk People’s Republic, the two territories in eastern Ukraine that Putin recognized as independent today.