War in Ukraine/Med Cruising

[jmh2002]

Those following 'announced' deliveries of weapons to Ukraine know that thousands of Javelin or equivalent shoulder launched anti tank missiles have already arrived in Ukraine. The UK sent 2000 in one delivery alone (multiple plane loads).

In addition Ukraine also has, and has additionally been supplied with further shoulder launched anti aircraft missiles.

Ukraine also said they have received other "interesting" equipment but did not confirm what this was.

These types of weapons have also come from the Baltic countries, and from Poland too.

Of course this is not a total defensive capability, but it will help.

I also think that this strategy has been used, rather than the supply of 'fixed' or 'semi fixed' anti aircraft defence to try and avoid those simply being targetted by a Russian air attack and destroyed.

It's much more difficult to locate and attack a few soliders, who are mobile, and are equipped with shoulder launched missiles.

[goboatingnow]

I don’t think Ukraine will counter any Russian advancement into the separatist regions. It’s not a conflict it can win even if it pushed the Russians back , which is unlikely.

[goboatingnow]

Originally Posted by jmh2002

Those following 'announced' deliveries of weapons to Ukraine know that thousands of Javelin or equivalent shoulder launched anti tank missiles have already arrived in Ukraine. The UK sent 2000 in one delivery alone (multiple plane loads).

In addition Ukraine also has, and has additionally been supplied with further shoulder launched anti aircraft missiles.

Ukraine also said they have received other "interesting" equipment but did not confirm what this was.

These types of weapons have also come from the Baltic countries, and from Poland too.

Of course this is not a total defensive capability, but it will help.

I also think that this strategy has been used, rather than the supply of 'fixed' or 'semi fixed' anti aircraft defence to try and avoid those simply being targetted by a Russian air attack and destroyed.

It's much more difficult to locate and attack a few soliders, who are mobile, and are equipped with shoulder launched missiles.

The US had more materiel then anyone else , it couldn’t win in Afghanistan or Iraq. This is not about how many shoulder held weapons each side has. This is about the long term outcome. Ukraine can’t undo its separatist regions irrespective of what military outcome occurs.

[jmh2002]

Why are you focused on the separatist areas? They are already occupied...

The focus is on an attack or incursion into additional areas of Ukraine.

[Statistical]

Originally Posted by goboatingnow

Ukraine can’t undo its separatist regions irrespective of what military outcome occurs.

What is the separatist "region"? The territory the separatists actually control or the territory they claim to represent. The later is about 8x larger.

[goboatingnow]

Originally Posted by Statistical

What is the separatist "region"? The territory the separatists actually control or the territory they claim to represent. The later is about 8x larger.

It’s not really the point , the point is Ukraine has a separatist region some of which is a historical hangover from its independence process where a Russian leaning Russian speaking minority feel disenfranchised

Ukraine can’t solve this problem by invading itself.

[goboatingnow]

Originally Posted by jmh2002

Why are you focused on the separatist areas? They are already occupied...

The focus is on an attack or incursion into additional areas of Ukraine.

There’s no evidence that is the actual focus.

[goboatingnow]

Anyway he’s signed the decree

“Russian President Vladimir Putin has signed a decree recognising the two breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine as independent entities.

“I deem it necessary to make a decision that should have been made a long time ago – to immediately recognise the independence and sovereignty of the Donetsk People’s Republic and the Lugansk People’s Republic,” Putin said in a televised address.”

[goboatingnow]

Originally Posted by goboatingnow

Anyway he’s signed the decree

“Russian President Vladimir Putin has signed a decree recognising the two breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine as independent entities.

“I deem it necessary to make a decision that should have been made a long time ago – to immediately recognise the independence and sovereignty of the Donetsk People’s Republic and the Lugansk People’s Republic,” Putin said in a televised address.”

This now places Ukraine in a huge quandary

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by letsgetsailing3

Putin has a habit of eliminating the opposition.

But not masses of civilians. I wrote above about the risks to Putin in case this thing turns bloody. He will trying to avoid that by all means; it could mean his downfall.


You said you have personal connections in Ukraine -- don't know if you read Russian, but here is what one former high official of the Russian General Staff said about it: https://nvo.ng.ru/realty/2022-02-03/3_1175_donbass.html


The author consider armed conflict in Ukraine to be not in the national interests of Russia, and to be highly risky for more or less the exact same reasons I wrote about above.


Being advised by such highly professional people, Putin will be very cautious, I believe. Possibly, he won't go to war at all. Possibly, he will reach a direct settlement with the Ukrainians without our useless participation. If the Ukrainians wake up and understand that they have nothing good to expect from us.


But unfolding events give no cause for optimism. The latest: https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/02...de-to-invasion


This is like watching a car wreck in slow motion.


So now the Russians have recognized the two breakaway republics, the Donetsk and Luhanks People's Republics. This is the legal pretext for full scale military intervention in the civil war.



I guess the actual attack may come as early as tomorrow.

[jmh2002]

Here is an article from 15 Feb 2022 that some of you might interesting, especially those with less direct knowledge of the situation:

Illia Ponomarenko: Even if Russia attacks, Ukraine’s fall is not predestined:
https://kyivindependent.com/opinion/...t-predestined/

And a specific for @Dockhead in relation to how willing Ukrainians might be to fight and defend their country:

"According to a Feb. 15 poll, 58% of Ukrainians say they are ready to offer resistance to Russian occupation, 37% of them said they’d want to take up arms."

37% of 40m people is almost 15 million citizens who 'said they'd want to take up arms'

Even allowing for large margins of error (or even bravado) that that is still a significant amount of the population.

[goboatingnow]

I’m don’t see the Russians moving unless the Ukrainians react to the decree militarily. Russia needs a pretext

I agree that the best course of action would be that Ukraine tried to resolve this with Russia without the west prodding everybody.

Ukraine has a fundamental dilemma. Wage war in its “ own” country which could result in an even bigger part of it effectively being annexed

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by jmh2002

Why are you focused on the separatist areas? They are already occupied...

The focus is on an attack or incursion into additional areas of Ukraine.

The Russians don't carry about "areas". This has nothing to do with territory. This is about stopping NATO. To do that, the Russians will have to either remove the current government, and install a new one which will sign a treaty at gunpoint guarantying that this will not happen, or push the Ukrainians into a capitulation prior to military action.

[notoldbilbo]

Referring to the Original Poster's query about the advisability of heading Across The Pond and cruising in the Med, I would suggest that he simply gets on with it.

There's lots of Europe - France, Spain, Portugal, then the island groups of the Balearics, Sardinia and Corsica, then Italy, the Peloponnese/Ionian and the Adriatic - quite enough to keep him entranced for a couple of years or more.

While there, the goings-on to the north-east should become well-known, and any further changes to security and stability should be evident.

I'd recommend staying away from the Eastern Med, for that could well become suddenly rather frantic. Russia's outpost at Tartus/Syria could quickly become the scene of active-aggressive military effort, without any warning. In that event, it would be better reading about it in the morning newspapers 500 miles away to the west.


IMHO

[letsgetsailing3]

Originally Posted by goboatingnow

But he clearly intends , if he does intervene to restrict it to the separatist regions.

This isn't at all clear.