War in Ukraine/Med Cruising

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by jmh2002

Why now is I think answered by the coinciding of different events such as:

- US pivoting to China
- Europe in general also trying to pivot to Asia
- Europe appearing disunited (real or imagined)
- Russia having built up it's war chest
- Nord Stream 2 finished construction and waiting approval and use
- Alternative energy production shortage in Europe last year
- Low amount of stored gas in Europe last year
- High demand for energy from China (Russia has an alternative market)
- Russian military at it's highest state of ability for decades

etc, etc.

So whilst Russia will have been preparing for this for years, as they have prepared various scenarios for Ukraine for years, including what happened in 2014, they of course wait if possible, for a more appropriate moment to implement a scenario.

Also Russia has learnt lessons from their Crimea and Donbas adventures, which were only partially successful, and how the world reacted, how Ukraine reacted, what has changed since, and how to better counter that.

Ukraine and the West have learnt some lessons too of course, and you can see a changed approach from them as well, which may well be causing the Russian's to be taken aback, but probably won't ultimately deter them.

So I don't think there is any one thing that broke the camels back, but rather through various world events now is a convenient moment for Russia to 'push back' so to speak.

As a side note, Eastern Europeans tend to be stubborn minded in general and have suffered much over decades and centuries. They are hardened against most things in life, and especially against normal Western thinking. They simply shrug their shoulders at many things and carry on. Tough, hard people - and that's just the babushkas...

But this doesn't only apply to the Russian's of course. Ukrainians are equally if not more so.

I don't believe that there will be a total invasion of the entire country because Russia can't hold the entire country (and nor do they really need to). I believe instead that there will be targetted strikes and incursions to acheive strategic goals.

But if there is a major incursion by land the Ukrainians will fight like hell, to the death, and take tens of thousands of young Russians boys with them, which will not go down well back in Russia.

Many great armies and great empires have fallen in the past when fighting partisans who are defending their families, their homes, and their land.

There are enough AK47s and other soviet era weapons in Ukraine to arm the entire population. They may be old technology, but they still kill. If things go badly wrong Ukraine will arm everyone - men, women, teenagers, pensioners. I believe the 'call to arms' will be beyond anything we have seen in modern history.

Let's hope it does not come to that. That will be extremely bloody, and extremely brutal, for everyone.

And would personally affect me too. In fact it already has.

A very good analysis


Only quibble I have -- why are you so sure the Ukrainians would "fight like hell"? Or that the Russian Army would agree to kill lots of Ukrainians?



"Ukrainians" are not a homogenous people. Ukrainian is not even the native language of a majority of the people. There is a certain amount of really hard line nationalism in the West, in the parts which were not in the Russian Empire (Right Bank Ukraine, etc.). There is very little of that in other parts of Ukraine. In the East and South, there is almost complete blurring of ethnic lines, and everyone has relatives in Russia. In Russia, too, Ukrainians are not generally considered foreigners.


I'm not sure the soldiers of either side would agree to an all-out war.


Nor is it a foregone conclusion that Russia will even have to invade. Faced with overwhelming force from the Russian side, and with zero from the West in support other than hot air, they may choose premptory capitulation. The Russians will not demand that much -- some veto over foreign policy maybe. They sure as hell do not want to do a military occupation of Ukraine. Maybe a deal to be made there without the West.


If the Russians get fussy about Donbas, they will be making a big mistake. They have no interest there except to pressure the Ukrainians. They should bargain that away, withdraw all support for the rebels, as part of a deal normalizing relations with Ukraine. Are they smart enough? They are a damn sight smarter than we are, but I'm not sure.

[jmh2002]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

A very good analysis

Only quibble I have -- why are you so sure the Ukrainians would "fight like hell"? Or that the Russian Army would agree to kill lots of Ukrainians?

Because of my personal experience and personal connection there.

I don't have time to delve into all your posts, but you are a little but too focused on the nazi aspect - it's only one aspect and a relatively small one at that in today's context.

Most of Ukraine, most of the Ukrainian people, and most of the Ukrainian defense forces (of any type) are made up of good, normal, sane people.

And they now very value what they have there, even if it is not perfect.

[Gadagirl]

I feel horrible about the the current situation for the Ukrainian people. My opinion based on reading this thread and other sources? WTF!
Ukraine is not currently under the influence of neo-nazi government. They are west leaning because that is what the people chose when they elected their current government/president. And that election might never have come to pass if were not for the west supporting that opportunity. Western policy. So yes, I imagine it did piss him off but he is the one that has to "just deal with it" because the Ukrainian people have rejected him. He is behaving like an scorned ex-boyfriend.
Describing that the west forced Putin into his situation just seems ridiculous. Putin? The same guy that poisoned and imprisoned his political adversaries? And we are to empathize with his position? He is maniacal, as much as other maniacal leaders in the past and deserves no respct. To argue that any of us agree that he has some justification, right, or political standing to his ambitions is absurd. He would have been voted out of office if he had not killed off his opponents in his own country.

[Montanan]

According to the latest US intelligence assessment, Russia now has close to 75% of its conventional forces postured against Ukraine, a US official with direct knowledge of the intelligence told CNN.
https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-...733fd4a7167d48

The concentration of forces within striking distance of Ukraine is highly unusual and part of the reason the US believes Russia is ready to attack, the official said.

This includes some 120 of Russia's total estimated 160 Battalion Tactical Groups or BTGs which are positioned within 60km of Ukraine, according to the official. While that figure represents 75% of Russia’s principal combat units, it is less than half of the total troops in the Russian military.

US officials have reported that Russian troops combined with separatist forces could be as high as 190,000 deployed around Ukraine.

Some 35 of 50 known air defense battalions are deployed against Ukraine. In addition, the US estimates some 500 fighter and fighter-bomber aircraft are within range of Ukraine, as well as 50 medium to heavy bombers.

Together, the Russian forces now vastly outnumber Ukrainian military forces, according to the assessment.


Per Wikipedia:

Ukraine increased the size of its armed forces to 204,000 soldiers (+46,000 civil servants) in 2014, not counting additional military forces such as the border guards (53,000), the newly formed National Guard of Ukraine (60,000) or the security service. The current size of Ukraine's armed forces, which consists of 250,000 (215,000 military personnel), is the largest in Europe, and second in the region after the Russian Armed Forces.[12] In 2022, President Zelensky ordered to increase the size of the forces by 100,000 by 2025, while ending conscription in 2024. Conscription will be replaced with short-term intensive military training


As of February,2021 the Armed Forces of Ukraine count 246,445 people:

Number of military personnel – 195,626 people;
including:
the number of military personnel participating in the JFO is 40,114 people;
the number of soldiers serving in the cordon – 359 people;
number of conscripts – 20,647 people;
Number of employees in military positions – 3,973 people;
The number of civil servants and employees (without the above) is 46,846 people.

[jmh2002]

Latest satellite imagery shows 'multiple new field deployments of Russian armoured equipment and troops departing from existing military sites and advancing into forests between 10-20 miles from the Ukrainian border'.

[billnz]

Israel still trying to get there N gas pipe to the EU hence the Syria conflict & Russia's help & Ukraine is a big part of that plan , They found a huge deposit of the Palestinian coast a few years ago & have sunk mega amounts of do ra me into that project - Funny old world , As the Government says ' We are here to help you ' ???

[jmh2002]

@Dockhead (and others), you might like these articles:

Sorry, Mr. Putin. Ukraine and Russia are Not the Same Country
https://www.politico.com/news/magazi...SS_Syndication

In Ukraine, even peace accords can be a Russian weapon
https://www.politico.eu/article/ukra...SS_Syndication

Russia risks another ‘bleeding wound’ in Ukraine
https://www.politico.eu/article/ukra...SS_Syndication

Russia’s war cost Ukraine $280 billion
https://kyivindependent.com/national...e-280-billion/

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by jmh2002

Because of my personal experience and personal connection there.

I don't have time to delve into all your posts, but you are a little but too focused on the nazi aspect - it's only one aspect and a relatively small one at that in today's context.

Most of Ukraine, most of the Ukrainian people, and most of the Ukrainian defense forces (of any type) are made up of good, normal, sane people.

And they now very value what they have there, even if it is not perfect.

I don't disagree with any of this. And by the way I also have connections and interests there, and have spent a lot of time in Ukraine, and I am a Russian speaker, so I know the country well. Although Ukraine is a hellishly difficult place to do business (Russia is like Switzerland, in comparison, even China is easier), the people are wonderful, and I always loved being there.

If I gave the impression that I think that the neo-Nazi element is a big thing in Ukrainian society today -- I didn't mean that. I was writing about the neo-Nazi element, with true facts, to explain one aspect of the Russian reaction to 2013/2014. It was a very big deal for the Russians in 2014 when all this started so it's important to know these facts.

But Banderist nationalism, which is to some extent inflitrated with neo-Nazis, to some extent co-extensive with neo-Nazism, IS a big thing in Ukrainian society, so it's complicated. There are big regional differences in this -- in the far West a large part of society consider Bandera to be a national hero, whereas in many other parts of the country he is considered a fascist, Nazi collaborator, and genocidal mass murderer (which is closer to the truth).

The Svoboda party, the former Social-Nationalist Party, so the actual organized neo-Nazis, have lost support since 2014 and aren't even in the government now. But it's a fact that the first post-coup Yatsenyuk government had 3 ministers from Svoboda, including the Deputy Prime Minister, and at various times the Minister of Defense, Minister of Agriculture, General Prosecutor, Minister of Natural Resources, were Svoboda men. This is a government we put into power. This is a key fact, for understanding the Russian reaction.

So you're absolutely right that actual neo-Nazis don't play a big role in society today, but Banderist nationalists, their close cousins, do (at least in some regions), and what I wrote about U.S. tax dollars putting neo-Nazis into power in 2014, which enraged the Russians, was an absolutely accurate historical fact, and highly relevant to how the present situation developed.


Also since the odious Poroshenko was voted out in 2019, the country has taken a certain turn away from Banderism. This reflects the divisions inside the country, where part of the country (including Poroshenko) considers Bandera to be the national hero and others consider Bandera to be a villain. The ousting of Poroshenko and rise to power of Zelensky shows that democracy is actually working in Ukraine, despite the manner in which the previous government came to power -- a very good thing, and for me really unexpected. Zelensky is a really good man. Unfortunately I think he will not be in power long -- he is hated by Ukrainian nationalists (he's not only not one of them, he's a Jew!) and the long knives are already out. Zelensky has an impossible job and it will be impossible for him to satisfy enough people to stay in power, even without an invasion. Even worse, he has started a noble fight against the oligarchy, so has stirred up a hornet's nest in the halls of real power in the country. What will come next is an interesting question.


As to whether the Ukrainians will fight -- I completely agree with you, that the whole country wants to stay independent, and almost no one wants the Russians to invade. That includes even the more Russian parts of society in the East and South. I've seen the surveys, and I've talked to the people. And I am completely sympathetic to this -- I want this for them, too. But I don't think the whole country burns with desire for a fratricidal war with Russia, either. The burning desire to fight and die for Ukraine exists in some quarters, but it is not universal, and the Ukrainian government will definitey have challenges getting the armed forces to fight, as they have already had challenges in Donbas and Luhansk. Nor, as I wrote, is there any widespread desire in Russia to fight Ukrainians, who are not really even considered foreigners, and for whom Russians have never felt any ethnic hatred. Putin's invasion is highly problematic from this point of view. This is no criticism of either country -- from my point of view, as a person who is generally against war, on the contrary, it's a good thing when politicians have to worry whether their soldiers will fight, when people don't blindly follow orders to go and kill other people.

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by Montanan

According to the latest US intelligence assessment, Russia now has close to 75% of its conventional forces postured against Ukraine, a US official with direct knowledge of the intelligence told CNN.
https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-...733fd4a7167d48

The concentration of forces within striking distance of Ukraine is highly unusual and part of the reason the US believes Russia is ready to attack, the official said.

This includes some 120 of Russia's total estimated 160 Battalion Tactical Groups or BTGs which are positioned within 60km of Ukraine, according to the official. While that figure represents 75% of Russia’s principal combat units, it is less than half of the total troops in the Russian military.

US officials have reported that Russian troops combined with separatist forces could be as high as 190,000 deployed around Ukraine.

Some 35 of 50 known air defense battalions are deployed against Ukraine. In addition, the US estimates some 500 fighter and fighter-bomber aircraft are within range of Ukraine, as well as 50 medium to heavy bombers.

Together, the Russian forces now vastly outnumber Ukrainian military forces, according to the assessment.

Per Wikipedia:

Ukraine increased the size of its armed forces to 204,000 soldiers (+46,000 civil servants) in 2014, not counting additional military forces such as the border guards (53,000), the newly formed National Guard of Ukraine (60,000) or the security service. The current size of Ukraine's armed forces, which consists of 250,000 (215,000 military personnel), is the largest in Europe, and second in the region after the Russian Armed Forces.[12] In 2022, President Zelensky ordered to increase the size of the forces by 100,000 by 2025, while ending conscription in 2024. Conscription will be replaced with short-term intensive military training

As of February,2021 the Armed Forces of Ukraine count 246,445 people:

Number of military personnel – 195,626 people;
including:
the number of military personnel participating in the JFO is 40,114 people;
the number of soldiers serving in the cordon – 359 people;
number of conscripts – 20,647 people;
Number of employees in military positions – 3,973 people;
The number of civil servants and employees (without the above) is 46,846 people.

More comparison between Russian and Ukrainian military assets:

https://www.globalfirepower.com/coun...ountry2=russia

One thing not reflected in these statistics is the difference in age and condition of equipment.

Ukraine and Russia both, mired in poverty and corruption, both allowed their militaries to deteriorate during the 90's. The difference is that from the year 2000, Russia experienced huge economic growth while Ukraine didn't. The GDP per capita of Russia is now almost 3x greater than that of Ukraine. That's per capita; population is also 3x greater. The Russians have been spending that new wealth building up their military, with a particularly big push in the 2010's, renewing their weapons systems, paying their soldiers more, upgrading the structure of the military, upgrading tactics and doctrine. Also Russia is one of the world's leading exporters of weapons systems, and the large export market has made it possible to fund a huge amount of R&D. So most major weapons systems have been renewed and are now last generation, competitive even with ours, particularly armored fighting vehicles, fighter jets, electronic warfare.


Ukraine, by contrast, is using primarily Cold War era Soviet antiques for major weapons systems. There is a joke told to me by my Ukrainian friends once: "We have two tanks! One of them shoots, and the other can drive!". Exaggeration of course; they've been fixing their T64's and even developed a whole new tank model (not yet in production). But this is not a modern military yet.


Neverheless, it would be suicide for the Russians to get bogged down in a protracted ground war, and I think they have the capabilities to avoid that. As I wrote, I think they will do it much the way we did Iraq, primarily with air power and stand off weapons and airborne special forces. Any major ground fighting, I think, if any, will be left to the proxies in Donbas and Luhansk. But we shall see.

I still don't think war is entirely inevitable, despite our best efforts to ensure that it happens. It is conceivable that one of the diplomatic iniatives like Macron's might bear some fruit, and it is also conceivable that the Ukrainians may capitulate before the war starts. There will be every incentive on both sides to make a deal rather than fight. The Americans are oblivious, don't care, or actually desire the destruction of Ukraine. The Europeans have a deeper view, and much less than we, don't want war in Europe. The Ukrainians, though, are the ones to really see the situation clearly, and will have the greatest incentive of all. It could be that the Russians and Ukrainians agree without anyone else being involved.

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by jmh2002

@Dockhead (and others), you might like these articles:

Sorry, Mr. Putin. Ukraine and Russia are Not the Same Country
https://www.politico.com/news/magazi...SS_Syndication

In Ukraine, even peace accords can be a Russian weapon
https://www.politico.eu/article/ukra...SS_Syndication

Russia risks another ‘bleeding wound’ in Ukraine
https://www.politico.eu/article/ukra...SS_Syndication

Russia’s war cost Ukraine $280 billion
https://kyivindependent.com/national...e-280-billion/

Thanks; very interesting articles. The third one particularly highlights some of the risks to the Russians, which I was talking about.


You could even take that argument further. The situation in Afghanistan in the 1980's was one of the major factors which brought down the Soviet Union. Public opinion and feeling is immensely important even in non-democratic countries.



Interesting that almost the same debacle in Afghanistan had so little political effect in the U.S. Go figure.


I think the Russians are very acutely aware of this question and will do everything to avoid getting dragged into a protracted ground war, and will do everything to avoid killing a lot of their Ukrainian brothers, which would cause a horrendous public backlash in Russia. I think the Russians learned a lot from the Soviet debacle in Afghanistan and will do everything to avoid repeating it. But we shall see.

[goboatingnow]

Originally Posted by letsgetsailing3

That's not what the west is doing, though it's hard not to demonize a guy who is using a military exercise as a pretext to invade another country, and lying about it as we watch him do it. The west is calling a spade a spade, in real time. They're pointing out what Putin is doing, and it's not pretty.

And it's not that the U.S. doesn't have a policy. It's just not one Putin likes. The policy is to let the Ukraine find it's own way, and (I'm guessing) to neutralize any meddling by Russia. I dont think Trump really did anybody any favors with respect to Ukraine, so the situation just kind of sat there for four years. I can guess what Putin thought of Trump. I don't think Putin is seeing an eminent threat as much as what he thinks is an opportunity. He sensed potential for weakness in Biden. I don't think he's going to get a weak response.

As far as NATO membership, I'd agree with Kissinger in 2014. But prior administrations did not. They went in, full speed ahead, when cooler heads should have prevailed. It's clearly not an option right now. At the same time, the west OBVIOUSLY can't give Putin the assurances he wants while he's got the Ukraine surrounded with equipment and troops. That's never going to happen, under any administration in the U.S. That would be akin to negotiating with a terrorist.

The west doesn't want Ukraine to be invaded. And the west, while imperfect, is not incompetent. It would be reckless and untenable to fill the Ukraine with NATO troops. It's not a possibility.

It's not that I don't understand your opinion. It's not that I don't think you're informed. You clearly know a lot about the region. I just disagree with your conclusions, and your assessment of the U.S.

It's unacceptable for Putin to invade Ukraine. It would cause a lot of death and disruption. And it's not as a result of any eminent threat to Russia or the separatists in Ukraine.

Governments negotiate with terrorists all the time. While maintaining the fiction they don’t , Margaret thatcher maintained dialogues with the IRA while publicly decrying such activities.

The west isn’t calling out putin it’s has contributed to the issues that have arisen and it’s now trying to convince everyone and itself , it’s a helpful observer. Nothing could be further from the truth. The west has manoeuvred Ukraine to be in this position

[goboatingnow]

At the same time, the west OBVIOUSLY can't give Putin the assurances he wants while he's got the Ukraine surrounded with equipment and troops. That's never going to happen, under any administration in the U.S. That would be akin to negotiating with a terrorist.

The west can and should negotiate. In fact Biden is proposing an immediate conference with Russia

[Dockhead]

You heard it here first: Not yet appeared in the Western press, but 45 minutes ago a story appeared in one Russian military journal that fighting broke out on the Ukrainian border. See: https://nvo.ng.ru/news/732813.html


It's reported that "five Ukrainian saboteurs" violated the Russian border, and were "eliminated". Of course Ukraine would never send saboteurs or anyone else across the border; this is obviously a provocation. But they are now killing people. This is how it begins. This is very bad.

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by goboatingnow

Governments negotiate with terrorists all the time. While maintaining the fiction they don’t , Margaret thatcher maintained dialogues with the IRA while publicly decrying such activities.

The west isn’t calling out putin it’s has contributed to the issues that have arisen and it’s now trying to convince everyone and itself , it’s a helpful observer. Nothing could be further from the truth. The west has manoeuvred Ukraine to be in this position

Absolutely right. The West, specifically the U.S., has maneuvered Ukraine into this position, and stands by to let Ukraine be destroyed. Horrifying behavior.


Zelensky needs the U.S. but that doesn't stop him from calling us out on this himself. I think it was yesterday he complained how ridiculous it is for the U.S. to hold out NATO membership, and even use it to provoke the Russians, then fail to give any concrete path towards it. It's outrageous what we've done to the Ukrainians.

[Pelagic]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

You heard it here first: Not yet appeared in the Western press, but 45 minutes ago a story appeared in one Russian military journal that fighting broke out on the Ukrainian border. See: https://nvo.ng.ru/news/732813.html


It's reported that "five Ukrainian saboteurs" violated the Russian border, and were "eliminated". Of course Ukraine would never send saboteurs or anyone else across the border; this is obviously a provocation. But they are now killing people. This is how it begins. This is very bad.

Thanks Dockhead ( I guess)

You are now part of my....
... where were you when it all began to go to sh**.

Biden and Chamberlain