Weather Attribution Analysis

[GordMay]

Weather Attribution Analysis
Extreme weather event attribution is the science of calculating how much human-caused climate change influenced extreme weather events, like heat waves, which can drive wildfires and drought; extreme cold; and extreme rainfall, which can cause flooding.
Environment and Climate Change Canada ➥ https://www.canada.ca/en/environment...tribution.html

Originally Posted by ECCC

“... Within several days of a heat wave, scientists can compare the number of heat waves in these two different climates [* 1880s vs Now] to calculate how much human activity changed the chances of such a heat wave occurring...

* The climate of the 1800s, based on levels of atmospheric gases that existed before the Industrial Revolution.
The climate of today, based on increased levels of greenhouse gases and other results of human activity.
explores how weather-related conditions, like heat waves, floods, and wildfires, are connected to human-caused climate change.
...”

Global seasonal forecasts [Canadian Seasonal and Interannual Prediction System (CanSIPS)]
➥ https://climate-scenarios.canada.ca/...cansips-global

More about:
Environment Canada says it can now rapidly link high-heat weather events to climate change
Environment and Climate Change Canada says weather attribution analysis can confirm climate change's role in heat waves within days
➥ https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/env...tion-1.7235596

[GordMay]

Hurricanes & Other Extreme Weather, Explained In 3 Hours
From the anatomy of a hurricane, to the issues that could lead us to the end of the world, this documentary explores the world's most extreme weather.
0:00:00 - Extreme Ice
0:45:04 - Hurricanes
1:30:20 - Tornadoes
2:15:49 - The End of the World
Video ➥

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yDrBNbUkgkA

[barnakiel]

Linking wx events to climate change is simple.


Linking climate change to human influence is quackery.


The climate has always been changing. No doubt. The humans influence the environment, no doubt. Each species does. (And also the volcanoes do.)



Now how it all interrelates and correlates (or not) is a huge political dispute driven by ideologies as much as by facts.


One could remember the story of the cruise ships being bad and making things worse "for us and our children" (the Guardian, around 2008). Two years later the "scientists" (possibly the same ones!) are telling us limiting cruise ship traffic actually made the planet HOTTER (by removing some of the sun blocking smog ...) (the Guardian, 2023)



It is all very complex. Not less so when scientists funded by capitalists start making the whole picture that much harder to read. And very likely on a purpose.



b.

[GordMay]

Indeed, there are marked differences in public opinion, about climate change; though there’s slightly less controversy in political circles, and markedly little, in scientific circles [except on some important details].
And, the differences, between the opinion of scientists, and that of the general public, are marked.

The majority of people, in every country, support action on climate, but the public consistently underestimates this share.
This “perception gap” matters.
Governments will only change policy, if they think they have strong public backing. Companies need to know that consumers want to see low-carbon products, and changes in business practices.
We’re all more likely to make changes, if we think others will do the same.

Of course, public opinion impacts on the issue of climate change, because governments need willing electorates, in order to implement policies, that address climate change. Public opinion is of considerable importance to politicians and state leaders.

People's views, on climate change, tend to align with the people they voted for.
In the United States, conservative, white, men, are more likely, than other Americans to be skeptical climate change. Men are also less likely to believe that climate change is human caused, or that there is a consensus message, talking about the issues of climate change, among scientists.
Scientific analyses, of international survey data, show that right-wing/conservative orientation, and individualism, are strongly correlated to climate change denial, in the US, and other English-speaking countries. Less so, in most non-English speaking nations.

Youth [16 - 25] tend to show a deeper understanding, and awareness of, climate change, than adults, and older generations.

Peoples’ Climate Vote 2024 is the world’s largest, standalone, public opinion survey, on climate change.
More than 73,000 people, speaking 87 different languages, across 77 countries, participated in the survey.
The survey examined how people are experiencing the impacts of climate change, and how they want world leaders to respond.
More than two out of five people [43%] think extreme weather events, were worse this year, than last.
More than half of people [53%], globally, said they were more worried about climate change now, than last year, and four out of five [89%] want their countries to strengthen commitments, to address climate change.
Worldwide, 72% support a quick transition, away from fossil fuels, to renewable sources of energy.
Survey results show high levels of support, for a range of climate actions, including nature restoration, rapid transition from fossil fuels, and climate education in schools.

Peoples’ Climate Vote 2024 ➥ https://peoplesclimate.vote/

See your country’s results ➥ https://peoplesclimate.vote/country-results

The FULL Report ➥ https://peoplesclimate.vote/download

***

The Yale Factsheets tool, based on the Yale Climate Opinion Maps, provides information about Americans' beliefs, risk perceptions, and policy preferences about climate change for all 50 states, 435 congressional districts, and 3,142 counties across the U.S. The tool allows you to customize which survey questions are shown on your Factsheet. The opinion estimates are based on a statistical model (see Howe et al. 2015 for details) that uses a large individual-level survey dataset (n > 28,000), plus geographic, demographic, economic, and other data to provide results accurate to within about 8 percentage points at any geographic level.
Climate Opinion Factsheets ➥ https://climatecommunication.yale.ed...ta/factsheets/

***

Here are eight charts, that illustrate Americans’ views on the issue, based on Pew Research Center surveys, from 2023.
➥ https://www.pewresearch.org/short-re...limate-change/

“...
1. A majority of Americans support prioritizing the development of renewable energy sources ...
2. Americans are reluctant to phase out fossil fuels altogether, but younger adults are more open to it ...
3. The public supports the federal government incentivizing wind and solar energy production ...
4. Americans see room for multiple actors – including corporations and the federal government – to do more to address the impacts of climate change ...
5. Democrats and Republicans have grown further apart over the last decade in their assessments of the threat posed by climate change ...
6. Climate change is a lower priority for Americans than other national issues; such as strengthening the economy, and reducing health care costs ...
7. Perceptions of local climate impacts vary by Americans’ political affiliation and whether they believe that climate change is a serious problem ...
8. About three-quarters of Americans support U.S. participation in international efforts to reduce the effects of climate change.
...”

[barnakiel]

Yes.


There is plenty of opinions on what causes what. Fewer differences on the fact that changes are happening.


I think one big and not much mentioned fact is that the changes are fast and our will to adjust is practically nil. So, practically, we are driving ourselves fast towards a breakdown of the Western civilisation as we know it. And no matter what we believe or not. There are changes, and we are not adjusting. And that's that.



We are also being given mixed signals : at one time we are told there will be less cultivable land in the future, only to be reassured that we have to make more people (and, in some countries, we are being paid for making those people).


But any animal, also the human one, will not act adequately and coherently in presence of mixed and conflicting impulses. Pavlov prove that already. Just why so many people refuse to read about his research.


I would not be very fast to jump to a conclusion that a leaning bears on science or climate scepticism. I think America has just proven that. There was a lot of talking and very little action here and there over last 5 or 10 years. People got tired of all that talking. "I love you all too, I love you very much" is simply NOT enough given the challenges. It will take strong individuals to push us towards more decisive action.


Wiping out a species is a decisive action too. Fewer humans, less pollution, happier planet.


We are not taking action. This is a holiday day here and the marina is full of plastic bags again. They float everywhere as I am walking with that boat hook trying to catch them. The old man and the sea. All round me Z generation partying and throwing garbage into the water.


While they are throwing beer cans and plastic into the marina, and I am the only person trying to do anything, then I think there is not that much further need for attribution analysis. The science is a nice thing. We do not need more science, we need more police, higher penalties, and we need that old French device they deployed widely during their revolution.



Big challenges call for big counter-measures. No such measures in sight though. Too bad for us, the Westerners.



b.