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24-03-2018, 06:04
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#1
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2015
Location: Out of Norfolk Va
Boat: Tartan 37
Posts: 687
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The hurricane prediction is for the strongest in 70 years
Looks like it could be another devastating year for hurricanes. It seems like they're saying that every other year. Hoping they're wrong, everybody needs a break after last year.
https://721news.com/top-story/2018-hurricane-prediction-strongest-cycle-70-years/
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24-03-2018, 06:56
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#2
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: The boat is on the hard in Indiantown and we’re back in Colorado Springs to make more money so we can go again.
Boat: 1982 Cape Dory 36 Hull #78
Posts: 650
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Re: The hurricane prediction is for the strongest in 70 years
And for only $97.97 you can purchase the Basic forecast for yourself. Of course the packages go up from there, $299 with webinar.
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24-03-2018, 08:30
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#4
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2010
Location: Grand Rivers, KY
Boat: Hunter 2003 356 - Persistence
Posts: 609
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The hurricane prediction is for the strongest in 70 years
Yeah and by now where I used to vacation in Florida was supposed to be under water, the Arctic Ocean ice melted and I just heard this morning an Asteroid is heading straight for us and will get her in 2035! With all these expert forecasts, I think I’m going to go put my boat on the market.
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24-03-2018, 08:59
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#5
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2013
Location: Slidell, La.
Boat: Morgan Classic 33
Posts: 2,845
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Re: The hurricane prediction is for the strongest in 70 years
Another 'scientist-for-hire'.
If
"The preseason zone predictions are so accurate – updates to the forecasts are not required during the hurricane season." 721News
why don't the worlds' meteorological services just disband and buy their information directly from Global Weather Oscillations? (that's a rhetorical question, in case anyone out there has conspiratorial tendencies)
With a fairly cursory search (25 minutes), I could find no what-I would-call-credible sources that support the claims for accuracy made by GWO themselves.
Here is the GWO 2018 forecast, synopsized by NBC2 (Ft. Myers, I believe).
"Mr. Dilley predicts that 2018 will be somewhat of a repeat of 2017 - but some hurricane landfalls will occur in different locations this year. You can expect 16 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 4 major hurricanes, potential for 4 United States hurricane landfalls – 2 of which will likely be major impact storms. And once again – some Caribbean Islands will have another dangerous season."
Seems a bit like reading your horoscope...
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24-03-2018, 10:10
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#6
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: home town Wellington, NZ and Savusavu Fiji
Boat: Reinke S10 & Raven 26
Posts: 1,078
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Re: The hurricane prediction is for the strongest in 70 years
Quote:
Originally Posted by jimbunyard
Another 'scientist-for-hire'.
Here is the GWO 2018 forecast, synopsized by NBC2 (Ft. Myers, I believe).
"Mr. Dilley predicts that 2018 will be somewhat of a repeat of 2017 - but some hurricane landfalls will occur in different locations this year. You can expect 16 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 4 major hurricanes, potential for 4 United States hurricane landfalls – 2 of which will likely be major impact storms. And once again – some Caribbean Islands will have another dangerous season."
Seems a bit like reading your horoscope...
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I predict those Atlantic storms will be called:
Alberto
Beryl
Chris
Debby
Ernesto
Florence
Gordon
Helene
Isaac
Joyce
Kirk
Leslie
Michael
Nadine
Oscar
Patty
Rafael
Sara
Tony
Valerie
William
__________________
Grant Mc
The cure for everything is salt water: sweat, tears or the sea. Yeah right, I wish.
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24-03-2018, 10:28
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#7
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2014
Location: Oz
Posts: 1,042
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Re: The hurricane prediction is for the strongest in 70 years
Probably if you took the average for the last 100 years it might come in somewhere close to the forecast.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlant...nes_per_season
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24-03-2018, 10:48
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#8
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: Australia
Boat: Island Packet 40
Posts: 5,474
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Re: The hurricane prediction is for the strongest in 70 years
This years cyclone (hurricane) season in Australia has bought about four during the last month or so, all of them along the northern coast, but none earlier in the season.
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24-03-2018, 12:30
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#9
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2004
Location: Southern Maine
Boat: Prairie 36 Coastal Cruiser
Posts: 2,528
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Re: The hurricane prediction is for the strongest in 70 years
Quote:
Professor David Dilley, states that the “Climate Pulse Technology Model” is based on natural rhythm cycles that control hurricane landfall cycles and the position of the Bermuda High Pressure Center.
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Oh, yeah. The Rhythm Method. That's reliable.
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24-03-2018, 14:00
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#10
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Moderator
Join Date: Nov 2011
Location: aboard, cruising in Australia
Boat: Sayer 46' Solent rig sloop
Posts: 25,079
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Re: The hurricane prediction is for the strongest in 70 years
Quote:
Originally Posted by grantmc
I predict those Atlantic storms will be called:
Alberto
Beryl
Chris
Debby
Ernesto
Florence
Gordon
Helene
Isaac
Joyce
Kirk
Leslie
Michael
Nadine
Oscar
Patty
Quiqui (nickname for Enrique)
Rafael
Sara
Tony
Ulrich
Valerie
William
Xavierr
Ylla
Zenobia .... but it was a stretch!
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Ann
__________________
Who scorns the calm has forgotten the storm.
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24-03-2018, 19:16
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#11
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Senior Cruiser

Join Date: Nov 2013
Location: Port Moresby,Papua New Guinea
Boat: FP Belize Maestro 43 and OPBs
Posts: 12,581
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Re: The hurricane prediction is for the strongest in 70 years
Quote:
Originally Posted by JPA Cate
Ann
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grantmc's list was complete.
They only use 21 letters. And the lists rotate every 6 years. Here are the current lists with an explanation.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml
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24-03-2018, 19:23
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#12
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Marine Service Provider
Join Date: Jan 2011
Location: St. Petersburg, FL
Boat: Tartan 33 and OPB
Posts: 3,379
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Re: The hurricane prediction is for the strongest in 70 years
I love threads like this.
First here is my 100% accurate prediction... .... If YOU or your boat get his by a hurricane- you will consider it a bad season. Is some other poor *>%# gets hit instead of you- it is a good season.
Everything else is bologna.
Regarding letters-after the expected names are used they go to the Greek alphabet.
__________________
"Whenever...it requires a strong moral principle to prevent me from deliberately stepping into the street, and methodically knocking people's hats off- then, I account it high time to get to sea..." Ishmael -a link to my delivery website is in my profile—
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24-03-2018, 19:30
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#13
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Calgary, AB, Canada
Posts: 6,251
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Re: The hurricane prediction is for the strongest in 70 years
David Dilley of GWO also predicted a cooling cycle starting in 2008.
ICECAP
__________________
CRYA Yachtmaster Ocean Instructor Evaluator, Sail
IYT Yachtmaster Coastal Instructor
As I sail, I praise God, and care not. (Luke Foxe)
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24-03-2018, 20:12
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#14
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Moderator
Join Date: May 2008
Location: cruising SW Pacific
Boat: Jon Sayer 1-off 46 ft fract rig sloop strip plank in W Red Cedar
Posts: 19,823
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Re: The hurricane prediction is for the strongest in 70 years
With no reference to this forecast, I'm always amused when folks say things like hurricane f/c worst in 70 years... global warming is responsible, etc. Wonder what caused that even worse season 70 years ago, somewhat before GW was seriously considered?
But hurricane/cyclone f/c have been notoriously bad in the past... even predicting the behavior of one after formation is kinda sketchy. They're fractious beasts. BTW, yesterday we had three of them active in Aussie waters... worst in many years, etc.
Jim
__________________
Jim and Ann s/v Insatiable II, still hanging out in Port Cygnet. Summer was nice... it was on a Tuesday... and now winter has descended upon Tasmania. Brrr.
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24-03-2018, 20:51
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#15
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2016
Location: Brisbane Australia
Boat: Schionning Waterline 1480
Posts: 1,854
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Re: The hurricane prediction is for the strongest in 70 years
Quote:
Originally Posted by jimbunyard
Another 'scientist-for-hire'.
"Mr. Dilley predicts that 2018 will be somewhat of a repeat of 2017 - but some hurricane landfalls will occur in different locations this year. You can expect 16 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 4 major hurricanes, potential for 4 United States hurricane landfalls – 2 of which will likely be major impact storms. And once again – some Caribbean Islands will have another dangerous season."
Seems a bit like reading your horoscope...
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Mr Dilley isn't a Ground Hog is he? I saw a documentary on him with Bill Murray once.
__________________
Regards
Dave
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