Risk & Reward.. I was Wrong!

[Mike OReilly]

Mostly, I ignore "I have a dream..." threads. Most of the time (not always) these people don't even know enough to know there are unknowns. They have a steep learning curve to go through before they can even begin to ask the right questions, so I don't see much value in spending a lot of time with them here.

The best advice is go read a few books. Or better yet, get out on a few boats and gain some experience.

We all started as dreamers. Most who make it beyond that stage do so with some hard work, and by logging in some actual time on a cruising boat. After that, the important questions begin to come into focus.

[captlloyd]

Pelagic what I say is that it is admirable to publicly acknowledge being wrong. A trait that is in short supply.

[moseriw]

Sorry but I am going wild on people who do not prepare for worse incidents.
Og course not for everything but I usually I "look before I mount" and have plans A to D before it gets worse. (Years before and still learning)

i.E.: assume your rudder is broken somehow and you are in a force 12 heavy storm situation with 400 NM leeway



no way to make an emergency tiller in force 12


Solution: rig a drogue anchor and take some sleeping pills and wait 2 days as there is nothing you can do by now.


Usually it is calm 2 days later and, for the worst case, you will be able to make an emergency tiller.

Which leads to the main point and the formula 85/15.
Who is not able to DIY repair all of the boat 85% of the time to sail 15% is not a skip but a sleeping danger for his crew.

[Malabarista]

Really good thread thanks. I would like to say ( from the not much advice to give end of the spectrum) that were it not for this forum and Practical boat owners forum i would never have attempted to do what i am doing. The friendly advice and practical tips i have received have been invaluable ( and free). But mostly it is the fact that i know you guys are out there and there will never be a problem that at least one of you won’t have solved before. I hope to be able to gain the experience to also offer advice on here one day but until then i will keep listening.
Now if anyone wants advice on juggling 🤹*♀️.......[emoji846]

[hpeer]

FWIW, sometimes you see someone who is likely going to make a mistake and realize there is not much to be done about it. BUT you can give him some advice the either mitigate or survive the mistake.

I frankly get annoyed at a certain type of person who I call “enforcers”. You see them driving down a divided highway abreast, doing the speed limit, preventing anyone from passing. But also there are those who would impose ABYC and/or other regulations upon all with the force of law. In their mind “advice” has crept forward to being “sacred creed.”

A non-maritime example of my philosophy is this; folks don’t need to wear helmets to drive motorcycles, the state does not need to provide for their medical or recuperative support should they suffer a brain injury due to not wearing a helmet.

It is implies or to make life fair in any agreed fashion. The best we can do is to make it “fair-ish”.

[thinwater]

I don't know....


I recall hiking down from Grand Teton after climbing an ice route on the north side and a discussion with my partner that in over 25 years of climbing together that...

• We had never had a real epic, and
• We weren't fully ready for the route we just did until that day.

It was not that the route was massively difficult. Like adventure sailing, it required being able to execute ordinary stuff in extraordinary circumstances, with some surprises thrown in, without hesitation or error. In this case, some speed was required, because we needed to climb something like 3500 feet of near vertical ice by early afternoon. It wasn't about bravado, but being able to move steadily was mandatory.

Which brings us back to the separation between a good story (epic) and dead. Sometimes there is a wide difference between perceived danger and consequence (a monohull in a gale), and sometimes the line between apparent ease and dead is thin.

And yet I have taken risks. Do you warn people? Sure. They don't have to listen.

[thomm225]

Originally Posted by hpeer

FWIW, sometimes you see someone who is likely going to make a mistake and realize there is not much to be done about it. BUT you can give him some advice the either mitigate or survive the mistake.

I frankly get annoyed at a certain type of person who I call “enforcers”. You see them driving down a divided highway abreast, doing the speed limit, preventing anyone from passing. But also there are those who would impose ABYC and/or other regulations upon all with the force of law. In their mind “advice” has crept forward to being “sacred creed.”

A non-maritime example of my philosophy is this; folks don’t need to wear helmets to drive motorcycles, the state does not need to provide for their medical or recuperative support should they suffer a brain injury due to not wearing a helmet.

It is implies or to make life fair in any agreed fashion. The best we can do is to make it “fair-ish”.

This is wrong because until some have been in an accident they just don't get it. The helmet law should be enforced. (I've broken two helmets cycling. Helmets are required in most long distance, high speed cycling events)

The strange thing is that sometimes it's the older folks in Florida on their Harleys not wearing a helmet and the young kids on crotch rockets wear them but they also may only be wear shorts and flip flops and she bikini and sandals coming back over the bridges from the beach at break neck speeds

Then there are the hospitals, doctors, and nurses that have many other things to do than to have to save someone that didn't take the proper precautions.

[Gtstricky]

What if they do not know the risk they are taking? I think it is one thing to know and accept a risk, another if you are ignorant to it.

Also your relationship plays a part. You might be much more forceful with your best friend who chooses not to wear a motorcycle helmet knowing you will have to take care of his widow, than say the random guy that pulls up next to you at a gas pump.

The opposite happens on the web, you are much more critical of strangers than your best friend who posted a pic with no helmet.

[moseriw]

Originally Posted by Gtstricky

What if they do not know the risk they are taking?

Oh I am so sorry for them. What about getting knowledge of the risks in advance? I think this is what everyone does - even just by crossing a road.

Sorry but this is no excuse and I think nowadays it should cost a lot of money to fire a Mayday and get picked up without a real threat for life.


i.E. SW-Pacific
a couple decided to abandon their cat as the steering was broken somehow ( OK heavy winds and waves at this time)

Coast guard did arrive after +150NM at the scene with a 40 crew ship.
Costs? around 100.000 USD I assume.

for what? 90% of the abandoned boats stay afloat.

[moseriw]

Natures law: know the risks and avoid them or you get eaten up.
As a tourist I would never enter a forest in India where Tigers are expected.

And at sea? Can I expect the same risk as couchpotato watching a youtube - have fun - crossing video?

[Gtstricky]

Sorry I must not have been clear. If we as bystanders see a risk that the other person might not know about, do we owe it to them to point it out? We know a storm is brewing, we see a tear in a sail, exhaust is smoking as they putter away.

Do we wave and say “enjoy the adventure”?

[captlloyd]

Originally Posted by moseriw

Natures law: know the risks and avoid them or you get eaten up.
As a tourist I would never enter a forest in India where Tigers are expected.

And at sea? Can I expect the same risk as couchpotato watching a youtube - have fun - crossing video?

There is a very authoritarian tone to your post, usually done by folks in the parent ego state. Hope this doesn’t fit your real profile. Personally I prefer the adult state and really enjoy the child state. Child state people are fun to be around.

[transmitterdan]

Originally Posted by moseriw

Natures law: know the risks and avoid them or you get eaten up.
As a tourist I would never enter a forest in India where Tigers are expected.

And at sea? Can I expect the same risk as couchpotato watching a youtube - have fun - crossing video?

I have done it. Would do it again.
Everyone has a risk tolerance and most people have natural fears that influence their perception of risk. I regularly dive in open water with sharks. Other people think they would be eaten alive immediately if they did that.
That’s why it’s so hard to accurately impose ones own risk perception and tolerance on another person. Everyone is different and so is every situation/voyage.

[Mike OReilly]

Risks are not binary; they're not black or white. In most cases risks come as broad shades of grey. The extreme situations are easy. But most risks, and indeed most of life, doesn't operate at the extreme. It's here where we must choose to "offer advice" which as Gord's research aptly shows, can so easily slip into a questionable power dynamic.

And the fact is that people have different risk tolerances. What may be an unacceptable risk to one person (Ex: walking in a forest with tigers, or driving a motorcycle without a helmet) is tolerable by others. There is no right or wrong answer here, unless you want to start applying some sort of general utilitarian community analysis.

But then we're down a rather precarious slippery slope. Virtually all things we do come with some risk, and very few of these only impact the individual. Some costs are always borne by the community. The mark of a free society is how widely we're able to allow these public costs.

But all this is getting further afield to the original topic. Here on these Internets we're dealing with largely anonymous people in largely unknown circumstances. There are many who come here at the very early dream or wannabe stage. I tend not to engage these folks, neither encouraging or dissuading. Like most of us before them, they have much to learn before they can even know what questions to ask. Those that are serious will learn.

[boatman61]

There is no wrong or right in cases like these..
One can only give an opinion based on their own risk tolerances, knowledge and experiences.
From my point of view the petitioner for opinions can glean useful knowledge from every reply and choose whether to then use or discard that advice.
At the end of the day the decision to go or delay is theirs alone and guilt trips are a waste of time & space.
I wrapped my hand in with RH before they sailed to Mexico.. the writing was in the sand by then as far as I was concerned, all that remained was the when & where.