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Old 22-09-2020, 14:25   #1
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keeping an eye on storms, climate and weather

today, i pondered storms and hurricanes a bit... and stumbled over these:

-a simplified but clear overview describing the 2020 storm forecast. will 2020 make it all the way to Pi for named storms?



-and this, on climate change and risk assessment for the insurance sector
https://www.bis.org/fsi/publ/insights20.htm

and then i read up a bit on how the financial sector is claiming it will lose money due to climate change... i'll leave you to google them as there are quite a few articles.

and then i read multiple reports on forecasted changes is weather systems in europe (the EU provides loads of studies/info).

personally, i've noticed drastic changes in rainfall patterns in normandy, especially over the last three years.

am curious to know if other people have noted drastic changes where they are as well.



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Old 22-09-2020, 14:55   #2
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Re: keeping an eye on storms, climate and weather

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am curious to know if other people have noted drastic changes where they are as well
A whole bunch of folks in the Western and Southeastern US have.

Ann
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Old 22-09-2020, 14:56   #3
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Re: keeping an eye on storms, climate and weather

Im not seeing drastic changes.

But the way climate change works is slow. One should not expect drastic changes yet.

The changes will come, but in the future.

To be clear, the damage we have dine will not be fully felt for quite a while, in the meantime we are adding yet more damage.
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Old 22-09-2020, 15:26   #4
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Re: keeping an eye on storms, climate and weather

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Im not seeing drastic changes.

But the way climate change works is slow. One should not expect drastic changes yet.

The changes will come, but in the future.

To be clear, the damage we have dine will not be fully felt for quite a while, in the meantime we are adding yet more damage.
thanks hpeer, for understanding my not-so-well formulated question.

effectively, it is aimed at gaining more local observations not to, as Ann pointed rightly to, the ultra-drastic changes that are painting the newspapers.

i admit that my underlying feeling is the the drastic-ness is spreading, faster than previously thought..., and this is because, locally, i'm seeing different rain patterns, different bees, different vegetation growth (even the colour of the flowers)... lots of tiny yet drastic changes.
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Old 22-09-2020, 15:34   #5
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Re: keeping an eye on storms, climate and weather

Sorry wolfie, did not mean to be mean.

I think it is difficult, because there are always a bad storm or two in season, so how different is 8 from 6 for a hurricane season. It is kind of hard to tell, our lifetimes are slower and climate changes affecting our weather take most of a lifetime. The trend I've observed is that there seem to be more outlier storms, ones earlier or later, so that the season is lengthening. But this is only observations since about 1992, so not way meaningful in terms of Earth's weather, even though it is as the climate change folks predicted...just like the fires.

We still have been having equinoctial gales this spring in Tasmania, but this is also known by the locals as "the windy time of year."

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Old 23-09-2020, 02:01   #6
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Re: keeping an eye on storms, climate and weather

you are sweet Ann. and no, i did not take your response as mean (especially since you remind me so much of my own mum! she was quite quick too!)

and thank you for your observations.

just this morning, the New York Times came out with another one of those articles that so many of us have been dreading:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/22/c...4ec35d3e1e4700




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Old 23-09-2020, 08:45   #7
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Re: keeping an eye on storms, climate and weather

General Education Global Climate Change Quiz. 10 questions. Answer True/False.
(For the science-minded, I have simplified considerably, for example not including other processes such as the oceanic carbon cycle)

1. Global Climate Change is the direct result of increasing the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere.
2. The increase in CO2 in the atmosphere is primarily the result of burning fossil fuels?
3. Fossil fuels are oil, coal, and natural gas.
4. Fossil fuels are produced by natural organic processes. For example, the decay of plant life over millions of years formed coal deposits. (If in doubt, see here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coal)

5. Plants take in CO2 and water (and other things) and with the help of energy from the sun, grow larger and release oxygen into the atmosphere (aka photosynthesis).
6. Over millions of years (primarily in the Carboniferous period 360-300 million years ago and Permian period 300-250 million years ago), plants removed vast amounts of CO2 from the atmosphere and turned it into plant material, which formed coal.
7. All the coal in the earth was, at one time, CO2 in the atmosphere (carbon plus sulfur, hydrogen, nitrogen, etc).
8. Because of natural processes absorbing CO2 from the atmosphere, today's CO2 levels are necessarily much lower than when coal was being formed.
9. CO2 in the atmosphere today is about 412 ppm, compared to pre-industrial levels of 280 ppm.
10. Research indicates that higher CO2 levels result in increased plant growth. For example, 475–600 ppm produce an average gain of 17% in crop yield.
Draw your own conclusions.


FYI to original poster. Does the number of hurricanes in any year fall within a normal distribution? If so, is 2020 an outlier? To test a global climate change hypothesis, the distribution of climate must change. That is, there must be an increase in variability, or standard deviation. If 2020 is an outlier, there is no climate change per se. I know of no research that has demonstrated an actual change in standard deviation of the distribution.
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Old 23-09-2020, 09:15   #8
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Re: keeping an eye on storms, climate and weather

It's an interesting thing to discuss Wolfie, but since climate is such a long-term phenomena, even the longest-lived amongst us are only able to provide very limited, and inevitably biased, anecdotal evidence. And as all researchers know, this is pretty much the worst kind of data.

What we can say is that the extreme weather events we are currently seeing are entirely consistent with a rapidly changing climate due to global warming.

In my neck of the woods (Canada) we've seen extended heat waves, with many all-time records being broken yet again. We've also experienced rapid temperature changes, going from extreme heat to extreme cold, in short periods. Again, entirely consistent with a rapidly changing climate.
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Old 23-09-2020, 10:43   #9
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Re: keeping an eye on storms, climate and weather

This chart illustrates a change in deviation for temperature and rain in California. Notably, many people will say that there have always been very hot and dry years, and that having a hot dry year doesn't point to climate change. This chart shows the change of deviation, yet still showing the outlier years.

I have not seen anything like this for hurricanes, but a similar chart I'm sure could be made. As I am from California, this chart is more relevant to me.

http://img.pressdemocrat.com/gif/fireseasons.gif
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Old 23-09-2020, 11:02   #10
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Re: keeping an eye on storms, climate and weather

So California escaped the 1920's "dustbowl" era ? First I have heard of that....
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Old 23-09-2020, 11:29   #11
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Re: keeping an eye on storms, climate and weather

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Originally Posted by wolfgal View Post
...just this morning, the New York Times came out with another one of those articles that so many of us have been dreading...
I'd encourage some reading on doomscrolling, how doomscrolling effects one's natural intuition (i.e. internal Baysian analytical framework), particularly how doomscrolling sort of loads observation biasing that one depends on to guide the natural intuition, as well as the locus of control concept.

To paraphrase John Lennon, life is what happens while we're focusing on doom and gloom. And it must be recognized that doom/gloom sells newspapers, books, religion, art of all forms, even science/medicine/psychology...such that doom/gloom is the (addictive and unhealthy) currency of a lot of peoples' business.
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Old 23-09-2020, 12:44   #12
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Re: keeping an eye on storms, climate and weather

Letís get back on topic please. This is political BS

Factually speaking I see the climate disaster spinning out of control. In the 12 steps many are still in the denial phase unfortunately

I live in Miami Beach. It is king tide here right now. Collins Ave the main drag is underwater in two lanes.

See the image I attached right now

I have been living here for 20 years and can tell you this only started happening 5 years ago and itís getting worse each year

Our marina is also flooded and the power lines under the docks are submerged.

The city just spent $5mil or more replenishing then beach here and now itís all washing away

There is only one solution - carbon negative emissions like switching to ammonia powered electricity generation on vessels and better battery tech. Tesla just came out with 1 million mile battery life

The future is clear - carbon capture; new generation fuels; renewables like wind and more efficient solar otherwise BP would now move away from drilling and to investing in offshore wind

Keep the faith in science to get us out of this mess and stop with the BS politics that just cause divisions and solve nothing

After all we did evolve from whale oil lamps didnít we?
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Old 23-09-2020, 13:02   #13
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Re: keeping an eye on storms, climate and weather

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So California escaped the 1920's "dustbowl" era ? First I have heard of that....
Yes. The dust bowl (in the 30's actually) was in the prairie states. It contributed to the impact of the great depression. There was a large migration to California at that time as displaced people moved further west.

If you were from California, you might know that. We learned it in elementary school as part of our history, along with the gold rush, Spanish Missions etc.

https://migration.ucdavis.edu/rmn/mo...lains%20states.
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Old 23-09-2020, 13:05   #14
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Re: keeping an eye on storms, climate and weather

I have not seen any dramatic weather changes over the short span of my life. One human life is just too short. Geologically, we are insignificant.



They say there is desertification of land in Southern Spain - but it sure did not start last year. Canary Islands have not seen a wet winter in 10 years now, again - nothing out of ordinary (ordinary is one wet winter every 7 years or so).



Winters in Central Europe have been mild for a time - but not milder than in other mild periods in the past.


In Northern Europe it seems a bit warmer now in winters - but, again, not warmer than in other warm periods in the past.


But I have seen images from Arctic, Antarctic, Patagonia - huge loss of ice in the glaciers, etc. Glaciers melt faster when there is not enough snowfall in the winter. Again, suggesting we are dryer there.



Given such a big and rapid loss of ice, there are sure more dramatic weather events headed our way. Just that we do not know what exactly they will be. Probably just typical climate shifts - more rain here, less rain there, warmer dryer here, but more humid elsewhere.


Maybe we can start growing cucumbers in the Sahara one day again. Like around AD 2250 or 2500.



I am a mid latitudes dweller, where mid weather has been, is and will be. I have no doubt there is far more action in the Arctic now though.


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Old 23-09-2020, 14:39   #15
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Re: keeping an eye on storms, climate and weather

Hey there Barnakiel - that exactly the problem - if personally it doesn’t impact you (or whomever may deny the change) then you may think it’s not real

I just uploaded an image of Miami Beach main drag flooded today on a beautiful calm day. I have been living here for 20 years. That never used to happen and only started about 5 years ago

So sea level rise is real and that is because the glaciers are melting

Also the reefs we dive here are dying through bleaching. I see that with my own eyes

This is real and it’s every living things problem. We don’t have another planet to move to. And a problem is an opportunity in disguise.

So back to the sailing forum - imagine how our community would benefit from cheap solar wind and battery technology

I am in the middle of ha omg to either fix or replace my generator on board or install 2kw of new solar and lifepo4. Batteries.

The math is not so clear - invest upfront and save on diesel or pay later. It would be a no brainer if lithium batteries were on par with agms and I think homeowners would install solar in a heart beat and get rid of the archaic grid that burns down the forests in California

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