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Old 25-09-2020, 05:57   #46
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Re: keeping an eye on storms, climate and weather

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We have locked ourselves up into echo chambers in climate change, hardly any point talking about it.
..........
Then again the chance of “intelligent leadership” seems a tad scarse these days. Im not seeing any here in the USA.

Using a term like 'climate denier' is far worse than an 'echo chamber'. By denying debate, 'Climate' has become a religion; think Catholicism's 'heretics' and mindless souls repeating what they've been told in church.

When a politician says 'the science is settled', it most certainly is not. Climate Change is a set of hypotheses, NOT fact. It is supported by limited data, not proven.



Intelligent leadership is part of a global problem--actually the problem stems from (among other things):
democratic systems led by mass media driving public opinion,

education systems that are unable to deal with creativity and critical thinking, and

not-so-good lawyers who become politicians and think they run the world.
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Old 25-09-2020, 06:31   #47
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Re: keeping an eye on storms, climate and weather

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Then again the chance of “intelligent leadership” seems a tad scarse these days. I'm not seeing any here in the USA.


I think there is plenty of "intelligent leadership" around. I would advise those concerned about "climate change" to quit pointing fingers at others. do whatever it is they believe will help with the problem that they perceive to be true. get an education. learn about the scientific method. set an example. don't believe everything you see and hear. don't confuse politics with ways to help the planet you live on
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Old 25-09-2020, 08:12   #48
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Re: keeping an eye on storms, climate and weather

As a start to fixing any of our problems we need to recognize our (Western Culture) Problems with our governance system.

Wd have allowed it to devolve into an inbreed cabal of elites, not unlike the 18th century. Without picking sides, we need:

Campaign finance reform
Term limits
A great reduction in the influence of political parties

I have more suggestions but these will serve as a starting point.

Each one of us has their own “intelligence”, of varying power and specific skill sets. Modern Democracies have allowed those skilled in political manipulation to take over the governments, and largely, our corporations. Trying to work with this cadre of like minded divas is maddening; they are adept at manipulation but daft at the real good physical world.

We need to find some way to interject pragmatism into our leadership.
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Old 25-09-2020, 08:41   #49
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Re: keeping an eye on storms, climate and weather

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Using a term like 'climate denier' is far worse than an 'echo chamber'. By denying debate, 'Climate' has become a religion; think Catholicism's 'heretics' and mindless souls repeating what they've been told in church.

When a politician says 'the science is settled', it most certainly is not. Climate Change is a set of hypotheses, NOT fact. It is supported by limited data, not proven.
Are we really going to go here? No, the science is not "settled." No science is ever settled. That's one of the core principles of science. But this does not mean we know nothing, or that everything is continually up for challenge.

So yes, climate change is a scientific theory (not just a hypothesis), much the same as gravity or evolution is a theory. The theory of rapid climate change is settled in the climate science community. And there is a strong consensus that human civilization is a major drive of this change. It's only not settled in the political minds of a few nations*.

What isn't settled is what we do about this. This is the realm of public policy, and science can only inform the decision. It's up to us, through our political systems, to make that choice.

*NOTE: I think we tend to lose sight of the fact that American views and perspectives dominate this forum, but these are not universal. Quite often the USA is the outlier. This is certainly true for climate change where most politicians of all stripes around the world are in general agreement. What they disagree about are the policy choices.
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Old 25-09-2020, 12:40   #50
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Re: keeping an eye on storms, climate and weather

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Are we really going to go here? No, the science is not "settled." No science is ever settled. That's one of the core principles of science. But this does not mean we know nothing, or that everything is continually up for challenge.

So yes, climate change is a scientific theory (not just a hypothesis), much the same as gravity or evolution is a theory. The theory of rapid climate change is settled in the climate science community. And there is a strong consensus that human civilization is a major drive of this change. It's only not settled in the political minds of a few nations*.

Please excuse the following long quote from NASA's Climate Change Website.
"According to the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the current scientific consensus is that long and short-term variations in solar activity play only a very small role in Earth’s climate. Warming from increased levels of human-produced greenhouse gases is actually many times stronger than any effects due to recent variations in solar activity.
For more than 40 years, satellites have observed the Sun's energy output, which has gone up or down by less than 0.1 percent during that period. Since 1750, the warming driven by greenhouse gases coming from the human burning of fossil fuels is over 50 times greater than the slight extra warming coming from the Sun itself over that same time interval.



I'll skip parsing the IPCC 'statement', such things as the use of 'recent'. Instead, please look at this chart, also from NASA, comparing solar irradiance and global temperature from 1880 to 2020.

https://climate.nasa.gov/internal_resources/1897/


Comparing smoothed data, or the means of two different data sets (as the two lines in the chart) may be as problematic as assuming causal relationships. That said,


We can observe a strong 11-year solar cycle, which common sense would expect to be reflected in temperature data. Spot the anomaly? One conclusion might be that the temperature variation has other causes, quite pronounced in some cases. Remember, the temperatures are global! Not one city, the 'planet.' While the change is a matter of 10ths of a degree Celsius, is it simply random?



At first glance, there appears some correlation between 1880 and 1960--both are trending upwards. Note the 'bumps' during this period. What caused the temperature to increase and decrease? Note that one bump leads, and one lags the solar mean data!!!
Next, note the temperature during the 1930s and 1940s; it increases during the Depression, and levels off and decreases at a time of massive industrial output and destruction, which would surely release CO2 (see note below). So, while the IPCC says the sun has minimal impact, human activity is also up for question.

There are forces at work beyond our current knowledge, consensus be damned.

Note: To be fair, the actual temp data for the war years better reflects human activity, than mean/5-year smoothed data. At the same time, it could be due to other factors.
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Old 25-09-2020, 13:13   #51
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Re: keeping an eye on storms, climate and weather

I'm not really interested in what some Internet researcher thinks (s)he sees in the data. I'm guided by what actual climate scientists say, which is that we are into a period of rapid climate change due to global warming. A significant contributor to this warming is human activity.

This is my starting point of any serious discussion around storms, climate and weather. If you want to argue the science, go become a climate scientist.
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Old 28-09-2020, 08:14   #52
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Re: keeping an eye on storms, climate and weather

planet earth has been around for a very long time and has seen it all....and is still here...one volcano eruption spews more crap into the sky..than all the pollution from cars...

the weather is the weather....short and sweet...good one day, not so good the next...it sells commercials on the news channels....it helps to have diagrams, charts, experts, past video footage to add drama....I'm always amazed to see how weather is delivered on TV...10 minutes for the news (always bad something, murder, car accidents, etc)...5 minutes for the sports....5 minutes for the weather...10 minutes for commercials and station identification.....we have at least a half dozen news channels here all vying for some or other "exclusive" story....always ending with a news person telling you telling .....this is so-and-so bringing you live coverage from Channel so-and-so...it's important to get the name of the newscaster right....his/her moment of fame...and off course, the TV station....can't forget that..."your local weather station"...."your trusted source for weather"..."live from the weather channel with so-and-so"

I'm waiting for someone's g'ma to have an aching callus on her toe to predict the next weather phenomena...

this past 2020 hurricane season is a classic....the pundits calling for the worst of the worst...have to go to the Greek alphabet, the sky is falling...etc..etc...other than two 'canes in the Gulf....nothing hit the eastern seaboard of the USA....not even close...

not complaining...'jes explainin'......

old time sailors sailed the world without the benefit of radar, satellite weather, weather routers, etc, and did just fine....I've been to marina's where a dozen yachties will be huddled together discussing every last detail of the weather, but won't leave unless the forecast calls for 6" waves and 10 knot breeze....the old salt already having left the previous day...

The only predictable thing about the weather is that it is unpredictable. I've known no sailor that has not had his or her ears clipped by some or other stormy encounter. It's part of the sailing game. Take the good with the bad and just go....
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Old 28-09-2020, 09:17   #53
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Re: keeping an eye on storms, climate and weather

MicHughV, if the point of your post is to say "just deal with it," when it comes to weather, then I fully agree. If your point is to suggest human civilization has nothing to do with the current state of climate, and hence weather, then we are in deep disagreement.

BTW, the oft-repeated claim about volcanoes being worse than "than all the pollution from cars" is a standard denier talking point that actual climate science easily debunks. In this era of 'fake news' it behooves everyone to take a little care before spreading false information.
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Old 28-09-2020, 09:36   #54
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Re: keeping an eye on storms, climate and weather

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General Education Global Climate Change Quiz. 10 questions. Answer True/False.
(For the science-minded, I have simplified considerably, for example not including other processes such as the oceanic carbon cycle)

1. Global Climate Change is the direct result of increasing the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere.
2. The increase in CO2 in the atmosphere is primarily the result of burning fossil fuels?
3. Fossil fuels are oil, coal, and natural gas.
4. Fossil fuels are produced by natural organic processes. For example, the decay of plant life over millions of years formed coal deposits. (If in doubt, see here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coal)

5. Plants take in CO2 and water (and other things) and with the help of energy from the sun, grow larger and release oxygen into the atmosphere (aka photosynthesis).
6. Over millions of years (primarily in the Carboniferous period 360-300 million years ago and Permian period 300-250 million years ago), plants removed vast amounts of CO2 from the atmosphere and turned it into plant material, which formed coal.
7. All the coal in the earth was, at one time, CO2 in the atmosphere (carbon plus sulfur, hydrogen, nitrogen, etc).
8. Because of natural processes absorbing CO2 from the atmosphere, today's CO2 levels are necessarily much lower than when coal was being formed.
9. CO2 in the atmosphere today is about 412 ppm, compared to pre-industrial levels of 280 ppm.
10. Research indicates that higher CO2 levels result in increased plant growth. For example, 475–600 ppm produce an average gain of 17% in crop yield.
Draw your own conclusions.


FYI to original poster. Does the number of hurricanes in any year fall within a normal distribution? If so, is 2020 an outlier? To test a global climate change hypothesis, the distribution of climate must change. That is, there must be an increase in variability, or standard deviation. If 2020 is an outlier, there is no climate change per se. I know of no research that has demonstrated an actual change in standard deviation of the distribution.
One slight problem; how much oxygen was there 400million years ago?
Climate change is not a good term. We do not/will not have a change in traditional climates e.g a north European change to Mediterranean.
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Old 28-09-2020, 10:57   #55
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Re: keeping an eye on storms, climate and weather

While I heartily agree we should do all we can to eliminate pollution of all types, I prefer 'climate cycling' over 'climate change'. We will always have climate cycling regardless of pollution effects. So, consider sun spots, and the 'mini-20 year sun cycles' as to how they affect the seasons all over the planet. Weather forecasts for sailors are valuable, but having been out there, the weather is always "happening" , at that moment. One minute clear sky, next minute a heavy squall.
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Old 28-09-2020, 11:23   #56
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Re: keeping an eye on storms, climate and weather

here's the thing....

you are driving down the road and a thunderstorm approaches.

you put the headlights on, wiper on, close the windows and be bit more wary, but you don't stop driving. you may even slow down or pull over if it's really bad...but you know that it will soon be over and if not, you will just deal with it. you certainly won't dissect the thunderstorm and by tomorrow you will have forgotten all about it. most people just keep on driving, some don't even slow down.

Why should sailing be any different ??
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Old 28-09-2020, 11:39   #57
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Re: keeping an eye on storms, climate and weather

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...Why should sailing be any different ??
Who's suggesting it should be any different? This is not really the tenor of the discussion so far, but we could go that route if like.

Yes, weather happens now. Deal with it ... what choice do we have?
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Old 28-09-2020, 12:00   #58
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Re: keeping an eye on storms, climate and weather

i have noticed there are more climate complaints during the la nina enso cycle than otherwise..
yes there are cycles our planet endures and they pass into other cycles..
keep planting trees and other green lovelies and keep on wearing your winter coats and keep on picking up the litter left by others -- hay arent ye glad ye alls banned straws and plastic bags..hahahahahha. just wait
for the blackouts due to nonenvironmentally clean all electric cars and homes, recharged by the failing electrical infrastructure..oh yes and global warming, not arsonists, causes fires.. awesome move cali...
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Old 28-09-2020, 12:50   #59
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Re: keeping an eye on storms, climate and weather

there are so many variables involved with weather....it really is beyond pinning down by anybody, any more than trying to pin down the number of hurricanes or what intensity they might be, the direction they might take, etc..nobody really knows....I think the NHC is probably as clued in as anyone....plus a variety of private weather guru's...today there is an overwhelming source of weather data....eg, check out " Mike's Weather Page", where there must dozens and dozens of charts, aerials, sat pics, etc, and that is but one site..there are many others....there is an overabundance of data to sort thru' and five differently people are likely to have five different points of view, hence you get the so-called " spaghetti" models....the spread of which is pretty darn wide. Youtube must have at least two dozen self-styled weather "experts".....

Where does that leave the sailor...farmer....etc...??? sure, advance warning gives some preparation time, I get that, and I'm thankful for that...but predicting sea levels, etc...global warming, etc....?????

I have a friend in Cape Town, South Africa. For some time, dams and other water reservoirs were at dangerously low levels in that area. No rain !! People were blaming it on everything. Local witchcraft, superstitions, global warming, etc, etc, Locals were put on water restrictions, but the rains came, a little bit later than usual, but they came and now there is water out the wazoo. It was interesting to hear my friend's comments on the situation. I present this only to give a point of view from the southern hemisphere.

Just trying to pen a counter point of view is all....
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Old 28-09-2020, 14:11   #60
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Re: keeping an eye on storms, climate and weather

Earth temperature is rising, slowly, for the last 10000 years. Historical earth temperatures are estimated by counting pollens in ice core samples from the Arctic and antarctic ice sheets. First ask yourself how accurate you think these estimates are? How much variation there is from year to year, decade to decade, and century to century? For the last million years the temperature has been VERY cold (read ice age) for about 90000 years, then warm up precipitously, then gradually for about 10000 years, then drops precipitously into an other ice age that lasts about 90000 years. Currently we are in the gradually warming phase not far from the next ice age.

I don't see how they can compare what is happening today with the ice core estimates with any degree of accuracy. It looks to me like we are right on the expected curve based on those ice core samples.

I expect that more warming and all the consequences will continue until the next ice age. I have serious doubts that humans have anything to do with that.
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