Hurricane models in rare agreement on likely Gaston

[Messing About]

Looks like all of the hurricane models agree the latest Tropical Depression (#9) is going to become a hurricane with a likely track across Western Cuba, continuing toward South or SW Florida. Here’s the five day track with multiple models in rare agreement. Anyone cruising the region right now? I will be headed down next year at this time and am using this as an opportunity to drill/plan for the future. I spend 9 years living on Charlotte Harbor but I was in a house and it was the same 9 years no hurricane made landfall in the US.

[CaptTom]

Looks like the name Gaston is now taken. So, it'll be Hermine which needs watching.

It's not looking good for the Gulf coast

[contrail]

Originally Posted by Messing About

Looks like all of the hurricane models agree the latest Tropical Depression (#9) is going to become a hurricane with a likely track across Western Cuba, continuing toward South or SW Florida. Here’s the five day track with multiple models in rare agreement. Anyone cruising the region right now? I will be headed down next year at this time and am using this as an opportunity to drill/plan for the future. I spend 9 years living on Charlotte Harbor but I was in a house and it was the same 9 years no hurricane made landfall in the US.

Attachment 264839

Actually, the Euro models, which have a great track record, are a bit east of the GFS ones you are showing. They come over Key West/Marathon, hit the mainland further southeast, and exit Florida's east coast in the vicinity of Stuart, rather than Caneveral. Of course, it's splitting hairs, this far in advance, but it is signifiacant that the GFS models have been moving closer to the Euro models, rather than the other way around.

[John_Trusty]

I remember that the US NOAA / National Hurricane Center just made some improvements last year in their models, so they should track closer together. In the last decade, it was correct that the European models predicted more accurately than the NOAA models. https://hfip.org/about

The Floridian's get a kick out of these spaghetti charts showing a single line. The peninsula is only 90-miles across, so if a hurricane hits one side, it means that a tropical storm is hitting the other side. Spend the weekend taking off your canvas and doubling your dock lines.

[tkeithlu]

Stand by. Our county emergency management gets a NWS briefing in nine minutes.

[Messing About]

Originally Posted by CaptTom

Looks like the name Gaston is now taken. So, it'll be Hermine which needs watching.

It's not looking good for the Gulf coast

Thanks for that correction; sorry it looks to be too late to make an edit to the title of the post.

[CarlF]

Until this morning the US weather models were in agreement - and WRONG.

Yesterday the US GFS model and spaghetti charts were showing it going ashore between New Orleans and Houston. Been that way for days. The European model showed it crossing Florida all this time. Embarrassing the US can't do better.

[Shanachie]

Many years ago, I kept a sailboat in the Crandon Park Marina mooring field at Key Biscayne. There was a cynical joke that always made the rounds when a hurricane approached.


The sailors who cared for their boats would be out adding lines to the helix mooring balls so that they would snap in succession, giving the vessels five or six chances to survive big waves.


The people who neglected their boats, but kept up the insurance payments? They would be out loosening their lines ...

[tkeithlu]

Given that this storm is still an unamed (will be Hermine) tropical depression, the predictions have lots of fudge factors. Best bet is a category 2 hurricane coming up the eastern side of the gulf starting Monday and reaching the level of the panhandle Wednesday. Most likely it will shift east part way, coming ashore around Tampa Bay. In short, the eastern gulf will be a pretty bad place to cruise from Sunday until Thursday.

[MicHughV]

Probably won't get a clear picture till this weekend.

It has to pass over Cuba, which will hopefully weaken it some.

[Chotu]

Not pleased. It’ll be my 3rd direct hit.

working as hard as possible here with a team and everything to try to get this boat out of Florida. And I still get hit again with one of these.

Hoping for a miracle.

[Sailor Sailor]

Originally Posted by MicHughV

Probably won't get a clear picture till this weekend.

It has to pass over Cuba, which will hopefully weaken it some.

NOAA predicts strengthening after it passes over Cuba, with windspeeds above 110 m.p.h. when it hits Florida near Ft. Myers and below Tampa Bay.https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/gra...?cone#contents

With a counterclockwise rotation, southwestern Florida will be in the most dangerous quadrant. This could be the big one!

[Sailor Sailor]

How many times have we seen this movie?

There will be shots of the hardware stores with plywood and generators selling out. People will be furiously hammering plywood over the windows and filling up bags with sand. The grocery store shelves will be emptied of water and toilet paper. Jim Cantore will appear on the beach. I-95 will become a parking lot. Some local will explain how he or she never leaves and will ride this one out...

[Chotu]

This is BS


I've had it.

And here is what's going on right now at my boat. Composite chainplates coming out beaufully. 2 man team working the epoxy. One built Tartans, the other is my long termm helper of almost a year now. Doing quality work. All to be destroyed next week. Wtf

Been killing myself to try to get the boat out of here and a 3rd direct hit is looking to be in the cards.

It’s not enough that I have so much other damage from the other 2 eyes of category 3 and 4 hurricanes passing over. One more on the way out?

Gaston... Or whoever you'll be called? Go F yourself.

Ready to tilt at hurricanes since there are no wind generators nearby.

[Shanachie]

Right now, I'm very glad I spent some money to move my sailboat to a well-protected marina on Tampa Bay from the semi-exposed dock behind my townhouse.


Exposure to waves is generally what kills sailboats in tropical storms and hurricanes, although all sorts of strange things can happen.


After 8-10 hours of battering by waves in Tropical Storm Eta, my sailboat snapped two hefty pilings at the townhouse dock and almost got wrecked. (The pilings ended up acting as anchors.)


Now, I can rest assured as long as I strip off the canvas and solar panels and tie plenty of long lines to handle a big storm surge. No eight-footers will be surging in on the boat.