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Old 13-03-2020, 14:23   #76
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Re: How a Shipwrecked Crew Survived 10 Days Lost at Sea

Originally Posted by becrux View Post
It boils down to statistics and math. When someone says “average” without specifying “statistical mean” or “arithmetic mean” [pronounced arithMETic mean] it can lead to confusion.

It is entirely possible that half the rescues with Epirb activation take less than 4.5 hours, and half take more - possibly much, much more. This would make 4.5 the statistical mean - also called the “median”. The arithmetic mean (what most of us call “average”) could easily be much higher. Say you had 4 rescues that happened in 4 hours and 1 that took 5 hours and three that took 4.5 days. The statistical mean (or median) is between 4 and 5 hours (half before and half after), but the arithmetic mean is 1.8 days (total time divided by number of rescues.)
So while the CG stats may be correct, they may also be a bit misleading. The quote above was not clear. And let’s also remember that they are tabulating Epirb distress calls. The particular episode discussed in this thread does not enter into the equation.

I keep watch and carry an Epirb... and a sextant.
I was not demeaning the US Coast Guard and hope it did not come across that way.. The 4.5 hrs. should have been qualified.

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Old 13-03-2020, 15:24   #77
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Re: How a Shipwrecked Crew Survived 10 Days Lost at Sea

The USCG (in recent years) responds to ~16000 SAR requests/year. Of those, ~100 are initiated as response to EPIRBs on recreational vessels. Of those, fully one-half are classified as "on land" or "inland waterways". Only 1 in 6 are > 20 miles from land, and 1 in 10 > 50 miles from land.

So, seems that it would be pretty easy to get a 4.5 hour mean/median/mode while leaving those of us who venture far offshore to expect much (much) longer response times.

(Curiously, need to dig into this more, in the '70s/'80s the USCG responded to ~70,000 SAR cases/year, there has been a steady decline since then - is this the commercial tow industry responding to the bulk of what used to be SAR cases?)

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Old 23-03-2020, 13:39   #78
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Re: How a Shipwrecked Crew Survived 10 Days Lost at Sea

i'm just happy for the rest of the crew that it was pete's banjo that survived the storm. could have been worse. could have been pete's bagpipes.....
Take two at low eight
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Old 31-03-2020, 19:31   #79
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Re: How a Shipwrecked Crew Survived 10 Days Lost at Sea

You all have pretty much taken this story apart, the only accurate parts of which appear to be losing the mast and getting rescued. No way they were rolled by a massive wave, their dodger is in way too good shape, plus he fails to mention they made a jury rig with, presumably, a spinnaker pole and small sail. Another weird aspect is that the CG was apparently searching for them, but they were hardly overdue. And even I as a solo sailor have two EPIRBS and a PLB.

Someone asked about conditions in the area. The best I can find is from Midway about 1.3k miles Westnorthwest. This is the archive of the wind conditions from the week from December 19 2019 from WindAlert. Max conditions were gusts to 30 knots. Unfortunately there is of course no wave height recording, and of it appears they were in fact west or even slightly westsouthwest of Hawaii, so conditions might have been much worse.
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crew, lost, shipwreck

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