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thomm225 · 07-10-2024, 11:50

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lee Jerry

The first two paragraphs caught my eye:

Attachment 295021

Do note, though, that this was written over two decades ago. [SIZE="1"]Back when the hurricanes were soft.[/SIZE]

Back when most but not all hurricanes were soft.

Cat 5 Hurricane Camille in 1969 packed 175 mph winds for example. Pressure 900 mbar. (Gulf Coast)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Camille

Hurricane Andrew 1992. Max winds 175 mph. Pressure 922 mbar. Made landfall as a Cat 5. (Florida)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurric...%20devastating

Hurricane Hazel 1954. A Cat 4. (North Carolina)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eyFgPgLufxU

Leadfree · 07-10-2024, 11:58

Unlike the proponents of "going to sea" in this thread, it is clear that Dashew is referring to avoidance when one is ALREADY offshore, not leaving a harbor to go meet the weather. Note his standards for going inshore, which is pretty much...yeah, a hurricane hole.

Lee Jerry · 07-10-2024, 12:38

Quote:

Originally Posted by Leadfree

Unlike the proponents of "going to sea" in this thread, it is clear that Dashew is referring to avoidance when one is ALREADY offshore, not leaving a harbor to go meet the weather.

Actually, I don't recall anyone saying to "go meet the weather." Perhaps you could refresh my memory by pointing out where that was said.

I do recall the opposite being said. That is, to avoid the weather. But good job trying to twist the words to fit your agenda.

scherzoja · 07-10-2024, 12:50

What’s the difference between someone in Grenada going to Trinidad to avoid a hurricane and someone in Tampa going to Pensacola to avoid a hurricane?

A quick glance at marine traffic.com reveals several boats leaving Tampa, both north and south.

catalystcat · 07-10-2024, 14:20

Trinidad is about 90 mi from Grenada depending on what bay you leave from. Pensacola is about 300mi from Tampa. So one is an overnight sail, the other is a multiday sail. That means you can wait until a day or two before and still get to port well ahead of the storm.

There is a(nother) row of mountains between you and the hurricane when you are in Chaguaramas. No such barrier in the Gulf.

Hurricanes can extend from Tampa to Pensacola. See the photo of Helene below.

The "bad side" of storms tends to be the direction to the right of its travel. That works great for Trinidad and Grenada, not too bad for Pensacola (but bad for people who want to go from Pensacola to Tampa).

For Beryl, that meant we only saw about 50kts on the south end of Grenada while Carriacou got well over 100kts. Trinidad saw almost nothing close to that.

Chotu · 07-10-2024, 14:59

what happened? Did Milton get stuck? Or is it waiting to pounce like a cat?

thomm225 · 07-10-2024, 15:03

Quote:

Originally Posted by catalystcat

Trinidad is about 90 mi from Grenada depending on what bay you leave from. Pensacola is about 300mi from Tampa. So one is an overnight sail, the other is a multiday sail. That means you can wait until a day or two before and still get to port well ahead of the storm.

There is a(nother) row of mountains between you and the hurricane when you are in Chaguaramas. No such barrier in the Gulf.

Hurricanes can extend from Tampa to Pensacola. See the photo of Helene below.

The "bad side" of storms tends to be the direction to the right of its travel. That works great for Trinidad and Grenada, not too bad for Pensacola (but bad for people who want to go from Pensacola to Tampa).

For Beryl, that meant we only saw about 50kts on the south end of Grenada while Carriacou got well over 100kts. Trinidad saw almost nothing close to that.

Exactly. 300 miles vs 90 miles.

I'm seeing 330 miles for Tampa to Pensacola flights so that's 240 more miles than the proposed island hop above.

It all depends on where you are, and your circumstances.

Plus, the sea state is going to be quite active all along that Panhandle area.

Again, it's all about your priorities.

Are you going to leave your home and family to save your boat?

Also, that thing has a lot more warm water to cross so it could grow.

With Helene, they kept going back and forth as to the strength it would be when it did actually make landfall.

thomm225 · 07-10-2024, 15:13

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chotu

what happened? Did Milton get stuck? Or is it waiting to pounce like a cat?

Moving East at 9 mph.

scherzoja · 07-10-2024, 15:45

I think my question regarding Grenada vs Tampa was poorly developed. I realize that distance is roughly 3 times different; however, if one left soon enough, there should be no problem. Is there a psychological barrier to leaving one's home waters to get out of the path vs leaving an island you are visiting for another island to visit to get out of the path?

For this question, can we set aside the emotional conflict of "leaving family" or the logistics of attending to any shore-side preparation? Assume home and family are safe 40 miles inland in a non-flood zone. I'm asking this question in the narrow context of the logistics of moving to outside of the cone.

In my hypothetical journey, I left Tampa on Saturday afternoon and the current posistion is about 30 miles SE of Pensacola.
29° 56.92' N
86° 48.29' W

When I step outside right now, it's a really nice day on the beach with a noticeable offshore breeze. I'm near Pensacola at the current time and if I wait long enough, I might be able to see my hypothetical boat hull up on the horizon.

Weather at nearby bouys:
NOAA 42012
Wind: 12 knots out of NE
Seas: 4.6' out of SE @ 8 second period

NOAA 42040
Wind: 20 knots out of NE
Seas: 8' @ 8 second period

Chevron platform
Wind: 20 knots out of NE
Seas: no data

Milton's development is interesting. It's a strong storm, but the wind radii are much smaller than Helene's.

Milton: current:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 155 KT WITH GUSTS TO 190 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 25SE 25SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 35SE 35SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.

The wind radii forecast for when it's near Tampa is not much different, relatively small. Ferocious, but small.

Milton: Near Tampa
FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 26.1N 84.0W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 65SE 65SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 110SW 150NW.

When one looks at the actual weather data (NHC and buoy/ship reports and the forecast data, one can see that it does not take distance to get out of the worst of the wind, as long as one plans ahead and does not procrastinate.

I'd like to clarify that this is not some kind of virile endeavor to prove one's masculinity or a fatally romantic delusion of "going to sea" to conquer a hurricane. That's completely illogical and antithetical to prudent seamanship. The goal of discussing this as a real-time event unfolds is to analyze the data to see just how far and where one needs to go, whether it's inland to a secure anchorage or 300 miles to be out of the cone. It's probably as close to a simulation as we can get. Given sufficient planning, I see no difference between Grenada --> Trinidad vs Tampa --> Pensacola. One just takes a little longer.

Chotu · 07-10-2024, 15:56

@ scherzoja

30 miles to go. you made it!

Where are you planning to anchor or stay while you are in Pensacola?

I am still on the Florida Georgia border with a rental car that I am car camping in. My boat is still at anchor in the river off Tampa Bay.

In conclusion, I think you did better than I did. You made it all the way there. Being out of the hurricane path completely in Pensacola, there is no more risk to your hypothetical boat right now.

,I, However, still have a pretty good risk to my hypothetical Boat. It remains to be seen what happens to the depths of the water river, how windy it gets, and what sort of resources there will be around the area afterward.

I will hypothetically return to check on the boat once the storm clears Florida and there are gas stations, open and water and food available.

This will still be a couple of days after the storm is gone. You might even be back from Pensacola by then.

I will closely monitor the weather and the storm surge to see how that hypothetical boat way up the river will do

scherzoja · 07-10-2024, 16:03

Anchor just inside the pass at Ft. McRee. Or take a transient slip and rent a room.

After a good night's sleep, I plan to ride the back side of the hurricane for the return trip to Tampa. Maybe depart PNS on Wednesday morning. All depends on the cone and wind data. We'll see.

Where you stick your game piece?

scherzoja · 07-10-2024, 16:06

Chotu,

What do you think it's like right now up the Caloosahatchee. More specifically, how crowded do you reckon it is up past the locks and are there enough places to tuck away without begin jammed in like sardines. I'd guess that a lot of folks from Tampa and Ft Meyers are and will head up that creek. AIS shows some, but there are likely more (2x or 3x what AIS shows?).

Chotu · 07-10-2024, 16:20

I went with this spot. I’m going to assume my current boat which has a 74ft air clearance. that kept me out of a lot of places.

https://maps.app.goo.gl/GqX8jgZQ2XRNfnyY7?g_st=ic

(27.5009167, -82.5121944)

it’s definitely not as ideal as one of the other spots I was looking at, but it should be pretty well protected in general. Even if the water gets deep, that’s OK. It will still stay in the circle. I don’t anticipate dragging because I haven’t in the other hurricanes

the other spot I was trying to go, but realistically could not with my mast unless I had it taken down. Is this position:. This would be my ideal if I stuck around Tampa.:

https://maps.app.goo.gl/n486a6uzqjHbsryc6?g_st=ic

(27.8843228, -82.3078966)

as far as the Caloosahatchee, that’s the place to go if you can get to it. Could’ve been halfway to Port St. Lucie by now. Completely unaffected by hurricanes in there. It just gets a little deeper and a little windier. And it doesn’t get deeper from storm surge obviously, it’s From rain filling up Lake Okeechobee. They have to release that.

Leadfree · 08-10-2024, 06:02

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chotu

I went with this spot. I’m going to assume my current boat which has a 74ft air clearance. that kept me out of a lot of places.

https://maps.app.goo.gl/GqX8jgZQ2XRNfnyY7?g_st=ic

(27.5009167, -82.5121944)

Two questions:
--How will you get under the three bridges at Palmetto (Hwy 41 Bus, CSX RR, and Hwy 41) one of which (the RR bridge) is quite low?
--And I would be quite surprised if the people in the houses surrounding your choice would allow you to randomly anchor there, so expect a visit from FWC at the very least. If you get a genuine jackass, as is likely (this is Floriduh after all) you may expect that they will pull your boat off its anchor and out into the main river (that is, had you been able to magically travel under the bridges). You'd need to be aboard to possibly forestall that, and you have stated that you would not stay.