Damage to boats, marina in downtown Gulfport Florida after Hurricane

[Chotu]

Originally Posted by scherzoja

Good morning y'all.

Current hypothetical position is:
29° 32.68' N
86° 15.16' W

NHC cone has changed little since yesterday.

Nearest weather buoys are:

NOAA buoy 42040 (100 miles west)
Wind: 21 kts NE,
Seas: 7.5' @ 5.5 sec interval
https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_pa...?station=42040

Oil platform Chevron Vicosa Knoll (80 west)
Winds: 27 kts NE,
Seas: no data
https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=kvoa

NOAA buoy 42012 (80 miles NW)
Winds: 18 kts NE
Seas: 5' @ 8 seconds out of SE
https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_pa...?station=42012

The forecast for wind radii on 10/9, just before landfall is the following:
26.4N 83.9W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 110SW 130NW.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refres.../071147.shtml?

For comparison, Helene's wind radii just prior to landfall were larger with the 34 kt radii almost double those of Milton.
28.8N 84.3W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 50SE 30SW 20NW.
50 KT... 80NE 90SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...270NE 270SE 120SW 120NW.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/202...adv.013.shtml?

another great post! I almost wish I chose to run so I would be able to do the same thing you are doing. Instead, all I can do is update that I am still in the river off tampa bay, The boat is secure at anchor, 10:1 scope.

I have also rented a car and drove up near Georgia out of the path of the hurricane. Brought some camping supplies. I will stay up here and wait it out, returning once the hurricane passes by.

This is the technique I have used for the last 3 out of 4 hurricanes that hit my boat directly. I really screwed up on the first one to hit it and sustained a lot of damage (never trust marinas or a mooring field to hold)

[thomm225]

One of the NFO Instructors up here just came by and said aren't you glad you don't live in Florida anymore!

He lived near Navarre in 1995 and worked at Eglin Air Force Base when Cat 2 Hurricane Erin and Cat 4 Hurricane Opal came through in August and September of that year.

I had visited the area in early September of that year in anticipation of being transferred there in February 1996.

The 20' dunes that separated the Gulf Shores Road from the Gulf between Pensacola Beach and Navarre were still there.

It was quite beautiful to see the Gulf after climbing over the Dunes.

I had driven down from Tennessee and stopped by the sailboat shop on Pensacola Beach to get a part for my boat. Also bought some beers.

I stopped along the road to Navarre then crossed the dunes and sat on the beach with a couple beers for a while enjoying the view of that blue green water and white sand beaches.

There were few to no high-rise beach condos along that stretch back then, but they were about to start building them.

Photo below shows folks on the beach but in the middle between the Pensacola Beach and Navarre Beach many spots are isolated without proper parking, so you had the beach to yourself back then anyway.

[Lee Jerry]

Originally Posted by GordMay

Indeed, they are extraordinarily accurate, given how complex, and chaotic weather systems are.
However, as the NHC reminds us:
Their average intensity error is 15 knots wind speed, for each day out.
Their average track error is 100 nautical miles, at 3 days out; 125nm, on day 4; and 175nm, on day 5.
"And users should not focus on the exact track."
["as there remains significant uncertainty in the eventual track and intensity"]

I believe this is describing the size of "the cone" at each of those number of days. They are the same for all storms for the year (using those values; it was slightly different values last year).

It is a comparison of the distance between the predicted location and actual location after the given time. It is therefore a combination of both path error (or offset) and speed of advance. So for example, if the speed averages one knot lower than the 3-day forecast but right on the predicted path, then the "track error" is still 72nm.

I think if you were to look at the error in location of predicted landfall at the various days out it would be much less. I could not find that data on the NHC website, though.

[rslifkin]

Originally Posted by Chotu

another great post! I almost wish I chose to run so I would be able to do the same thing you are doing. Instead, all I can do is update that I am still in the river off tampa bay, The boat is secure at anchor, 10:1 scope.

I have also rented a car and drove up near Georgia out of the path of the hurricane. Brought some camping supplies. I will stay up here and wait it out, returning once the hurricane passes by.

This is the technique I have used for the last 3 out of 4 hurricanes that hit my boat directly. I really screwed up on the first one to hit it and sustained a lot of damage (never trust marinas or a mooring field to hold)

I wouldn't say never on a marina, but realistically, very few marinas are in a good location and built in a way where they'd reliably be a safe place during a hurricane.

[Lee Jerry]

Originally Posted by thomm225

Remember, you are still not putting yourself out there only "gaming' what you would do.

I'm actually living it. I don't know how it could be more real for me. As I said, I'm in the Caribbean, currently Puerto Rico but BVI in two days. It's what is known as "hurricane season" down here. I have no intention of riding out any storms. I check the NHC website frequently.

You can talk great escape plans all you like, but for most people going about their daily lives in an area where a hurricane could hit, it's a totally different scenario.

For many, it's not just about the boat.

There are the kids, the wives, their homes, grandparents, jobs, etc.

So you are pulled in many different directions.

Most aren't sitting around just worried about their boat.

As I said before, we had so many hurricanes while I was in Pensacola, most people didn't change what they had done before for a Cat 1 or Cat 2 storm.

The people living in my old apartment didn't even leave for that storm. That apartment ended up with 8' of water in the lower floors.

We sailors though did not have our usual hurricane party under the breezeway listening to the old cruiser guys predict which boats in the anchored in the hurricane hole in front of the complex would drag and be dismasted by the bridge.

We didn't watch as anchored boats that had moved a bit swung in the wind missing each other by a foot or so.

My point is most folks have more to worry about than trying to escape on their boat especially with the crazy idea of outrunning the storm offshore while leaving every one and everything else behind.

Most are prepping for a long no power and no fuel event. Buying water, batteries, food, gas, etc.

I think it was 2 weeks after Ivan before we got power.

On the 2nd morning after the storm, I warmed up water for coffee at the grill in our apartment complex. You had to use bottle water since the tap water was bad.

I had never seen so many stars while in the city since there was not a light on anywhere at 4 am

The Sewer Treatment Plant overflowed into the bay.

This is generally all true and I don't disagree. Except that it wasn't the question. The OP didn't ask "How do I best protect my boat within the demands of the rest of my life?" It was "Where is the boat safest?" Those most likely have different answers, and the answer to the latter is "not in the path of the storm." There really shouldn't be any debate about that.

[Shrew]

Technically, the best place to be is on land, (mast down), strapped down to solid anchor points.

IMHO the best place to be in the water.... is on an oversized mooring (properly installed, with suitable (inspected) chain and shackles) with several very long, oversized mooring pennants tied to different cleats. Moorings fields rarely have enough room to allow for this, but it would be the best option.

[SoggyPaws]

After 25 years owning a boat in Florida, plus cruising the Caribbean, we put together a presentation on "Surviving Big Storms in Port", free to download as a PDF file from our website, plus there are some other storm prep advice resources.
https://svsoggypaws.com/files/#anchoring-hurricanes
Bottom line, is get out of the marina, but fer god's sake, don't go to sea!!
BEFORE hurricane season, find a nearby spot in a river or mangroves where you can anchor and tie your boat hugged up to the mangroves, and away from other unprepared cruisers. Go visit that spot, check out the possibilities, understand how long it will take to get there and to prep. Have the stuff aboard your boat to make snugging up into the mangroves possible (things like short pieces of chain and extra shackles to put around a tree or mangrove bush, several extra anchors, lots of extra chain, etc etc.
Take down ALL your canvas, your solar panels, the wind generator, the dinghy, anything on deck you can remove--you want your boat as sleek as possible. And ESPECIALLY take down your roller furling sails. They will inevitable deploy during hurricane force winds.
Good luck!

[Leadfree]

Originally Posted by SoggyPaws

After 25 years owning a boat in Florida, plus cruising the Caribbean, we put together a presentation on "Surviving Big Storms in Port", free to download as a PDF file from our website, plus there are some other storm prep advice resources.
https://svsoggypaws.com/files/#anchoring-hurricanes
Bottom line, is get out of the marina, but fer god's sake, don't go to sea!!
BEFORE hurricane season, find a nearby spot in a river or mangroves where you can anchor and tie your boat hugged up to the mangroves, and away from other unprepared cruisers. Go visit that spot, check out the possibilities, understand how long it will take to get there and to prep. Have the stuff aboard your boat to make snugging up into the mangroves possible (things like short pieces of chain and extra shackles to put around a tree or mangrove bush, several extra anchors, lots of extra chain, etc etc.
Take down ALL your canvas, your solar panels, the wind generator, the dinghy, anything on deck you can remove--you want your boat as sleek as possible. And ESPECIALLY take down your roller furling sails. They will inevitable deploy during hurricane force winds.
Good luck!

Another voice of actual experience. Thank you. The standing joke I've always heard is that the 'shredded jib is the official flag of the lazy b@st@rd.'

[thomm225]

Originally Posted by Lee Jerry

I'm actually living it. I don't know how it could be more real for me. As I said, I'm in the Caribbean, currently Puerto Rico but BVI in two days. It's what is known as "hurricane season" down here. I have no intention of riding out any storms. I check the NHC website frequently.

__________________________________________________ ___
Quote: Thomm225

You can talk great escape plans all you like, but for most people going about their daily lives in an area where a hurricane could hit, it's a totally different scenario.

For many, it's not just about the boat.

There are the kids, the wives, their homes, grandparents, jobs, etc.

So you are pulled in many different directions.

Most aren't sitting around just worried about their boat.

As I said before, we had so many hurricanes while I was in Pensacola, most people didn't change what they had done before for a Cat 1 or Cat 2 storm.

The people living in my old apartment didn't even leave for that storm. That apartment ended up with 8' of water in the lower floors.

We sailors though did not have our usual hurricane party under the breezeway listening to the old cruiser guys predict which boats in the anchored in the hurricane hole in front of the complex would drag and be dismasted by the bridge.

We didn't watch as anchored boats that had moved a bit swung in the wind missing each other by a foot or so.

My point is most folks have more to worry about than trying to escape on their boat especially with the crazy idea of outrunning the storm offshore while leaving every one and everything else behind.

Most are prepping for a long no power and no fuel event. Buying water, batteries, food, gas, etc.

I think it was 2 weeks after Ivan before we got power.

On the 2nd morning after the storm, I warmed up water for coffee at the grill in our apartment complex. You had to use bottle water since the tap water was bad.

I had never seen so many stars while in the city since there was not a light on anywhere at 4 am

The Sewer Treatment Plant overflowed into the bay.

__________________________________________________ ____________
This is generally all true and I don't disagree. Except that it wasn't the question. The OP didn't ask "How do I best protect my boat within the demands of the rest of my life?" It was "Where is the boat safest?" Those most likely have different answers, and the answer to the latter is "not in the path of the storm." There really shouldn't be any debate about that.

Btw, we are in what is known as "Hurricane Season" up here also.

Thankfully though the water is a bit cooler so if we do get one hopefully it won't be as bad as what you get down there.

The OP is up the Bay then up the Potomac it appears, so he is in a pretty good spot at present.

The question was how to protect A boat.

Your situation is very different than most who aren't retired and cruising.

Plus, it has a lot to do with where you are located.

For those living a "normal" life ashore with a boat and responsibilites, a large hurricane headed your way is a real problem

Most will not have the time to plan a great escape due to family, work, and home responsibilities as I mentioned before.

Then all that is left is move the boat more inland if you can, anchor out in the local hurricane hole, or stay at the marina.

As most here know, there are those of us that use our boats and are at the boat at least one a week if not daily. Others though never visit their boats and their dock lines are junk.

As far as anchoring out, how good is the boat anchored that is near you? Did he do a good job?

It gets really complicated really quick.

Again, most folks aren't out cruising, and many that will someday cruise South where you are will be very new at it.

I did get a chance to observe the newly retired cruisers while I was in Florida.

You have the very experienced to the total newbies!

It can be something to observe.

[Lee Jerry]

Originally Posted by scherzoja

I didn't realize that 30 knots on a broad reach was considered "tough seas and heavy winds".

Yes, this is EXACTLY the problem. Most "sailors" in this country (USA) are simply fair-weather sailors. They have never and are scared at the thought of having to put a reef in the main. That's if their boat is even equipped for it. Probably not. That's why the idea of being out there "near" a storm is so inconceivable to them.

[thomm225]

Originally Posted by Lee Jerry

Yes, this is EXACTLY the problem. Most "sailors" in this country (USA) are simply fair-weather sailors. They have never and are scared at the thought of having to put a reef in the main. That's if their boat is even equipped for it. Probably not. That's why the idea of being out there "near" a storm is so inconceivable to them.

Even up here in the Bay, once I sail North passed Thimble Shoal Shipping Channel there are very few boats especially if there are small craft advisories out. The first shipping channel is only 5 miles offshore in the bay.

My good old full keel boat only gets somewhat lively when the wind is 18 knots plus.

I once crossed the mouth of the Bay headed home in winds to 35 knots. I got caught actually because I had been somewhat protected when I sailed away from Kiptopeke.

I had too much main up as well but couldn't go forward to lower so sailed the 20 miles with the bow continually being pushed below the waves. It was wind against tide as well with several ships to avoid. I was able to furl the jib though.

Before I was able to turn DDW, waves breaking over the boat threaded to wash me overboard, so I had to hold onto the winch to stay aboard, steer the boat, reach below and get my harness, and then put the boards in the hatchway. Plus, grab some Dramamine just in case. As a single hander, I couldn't afford to get seasick.

As it was waves broke my dodger frame and the bow lights had to be repaired after I returned.

I was surprised as I neared the Southern shore to see a boat sailing out jib only into the wind. I later found out it was the 55' two helm racing boat at the end of my dock.

All hands were seasick, and they were at that time trying to plan their turn back.

We are protected from Northerly winds at my marina, so those guys misjudged as well the wind strength.

Video is the final 30 minutes or so of that sail after things had laid down a bit and I was near shore. Waves are not too bad by then but the wind is still up as you can hear in the rigging and the boat is still being pushed hard. (and pushing a lot of water)

Also, I was only somewhat in sync to put a camera to my eye even then almost had an accidental gybe.

The boat though did fine.

It was amazing to see how it would rise up to meet the breaking waves after I was able to turn DDW.

I guess that is why many have used boats like mine to ride the trade winds DDW as they can handle wind in the 30's plus in that direction offshore.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-nXfjcCuiPk

[Lee Jerry]

Originally Posted by SoggyPaws

After 25 years owning a boat in Florida, plus cruising the Caribbean, we put together a presentation on "Surviving Big Storms in Port", free to download as a PDF file from our website, plus there are some other storm prep advice resources.
https://svsoggypaws.com/files/#anchoring-hurricanes
Bottom line, is get out of the marina, but fer god's sake, don't go to sea!!
BEFORE hurricane season, find a nearby spot in a river or mangroves where you can anchor and tie your boat hugged up to the mangroves, and away from other unprepared cruisers. Go visit that spot, check out the possibilities, understand how long it will take to get there and to prep. Have the stuff aboard your boat to make snugging up into the mangroves possible (things like short pieces of chain and extra shackles to put around a tree or mangrove bush, several extra anchors, lots of extra chain, etc etc.
Take down ALL your canvas, your solar panels, the wind generator, the dinghy, anything on deck you can remove--you want your boat as sleek as possible. And ESPECIALLY take down your roller furling sails. They will inevitable deploy during hurricane force winds.
Good luck!

I looked through your presentation. I saw nothing addressing this issue. Did I miss it? So why do you say that?

[Lee Jerry]

Current Gulf weather (~12:30 EDT), same two buoys as before:

[Lee Jerry]

Originally Posted by GordMay

"HURRICANE AVOIDANCE TACTICS” by Steve Dashew [SetSail]
➥ https://setsail.com/wp-content/uploa..._avoidance.pdf

The first two paragraphs caught my eye:

Do note, though, that this was written over two decades ago. Back when the hurricanes were soft.

[scherzoja]

Hypothetical position about 30 miles due south of Destin

29° 46.1735' N
86° 33.8510' W


Nearest NOAA buoy: 42012
Wind: ~20 knots out of NE
Seas: 5' 8 sec inteval out of SE

NOAA buoy 42040
Wind: ~25 knots out of NE
Seas: 9' with 9 or 6 sec interval