Damage to boats, marina in downtown Gulfport Florida after Hurricane

[thomm225]

Originally Posted by Chotu

you should join. What if you were in Tampa bay yesterday? What would you do? what is your course of action?

this will be very interesting because we’ll see what plans worked and what didn’t with a real storm

No thanks.

Chess is my game.

Plus too tired at this point.

Over did it on a weight workout on Friday and rode my bike 20 miles this am. Plus scrubbed the boat yesterday.

Plus fished for dinner at the boat a little while ago.

I'm almost 70 so that is a lot.

Time to prep for work tomorrow.

I'll be watching the storm though.

I'm just glad it isn't another Helene.

It's going to take a long time for those folk in Eastern Tennessee and Western North Carolina to recover, and I'm sure most had zero flood insurance.

I've crossed those mountains maybe 35 times over the years headed from here to Memphis, TN. It's a beautiful area.

It's sad to see all the destruction. The Asheville to Knoxville section on I-40 was always great to drive across.

[scherzoja]

Oh my,

I didn't realize that 30 knots on a broad reach was considered "tough seas and heavy winds".

This is a hypothetical learning exercise using a real-time event. Is there any positive input can provide? Aside from being ashore and watching docks being destroyed during hurricane Ivan, do you have any constructive advice based on experience or analysis of the current set of data? The predictive models are much more accurate since 2004, making it easier to evaluate the risks. If you look at the NHC Graphics Archives, you will see how well the cone placements have evolved.

[Rohan]

Such a contentious discussion.

In 2022 and 2023, cyclones hit Northern Europe, and I remember reading about a marina in Denmark that was totally destroyed, the only boat that survived was the one boat that went out to sea.

If I had enough advance warning, I would prefer to move. But it doesn't have to be to sea, right? How far inland into the ICW would you need to go in order to be safe from storm surge?

[Leadfree]

safer at sea? Na. Go find a good hurricane hole which if you live in Hurricane Alley you always should know where the holes nearest you are.

https://www.cnn.com/2014/06/12/us/hm...ion/index.html

https://www.garmin.com/en-GB/blog/in...urricane-irma/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1B1dnSf6rPk

[Lee Jerry]

Originally Posted by scherzoja

I don't understand the consternation some posters have regarding moving from Tampa to Pensacola to get out of the way of Milton. If one is capable, has a reliable boat (good sails, good engine), has the time, and way to get daily forecast while underway, why not leave?

I concur with Lee Jerry. If I had my boat in Tampa or Ft Meyers, I would have left yesterday. It's only 300 miles and the forecast for the NE quadrant of the Gulf is for NE winds up to 35 knots through Tuesday night. Sounds like a really great sail!

https://www.weather.gov/tae/marine

I'm near Pensacola and there are several places to anchor, tucked away up a creek. It seems like a no-brainer if you are skilled, have good boat, and the time. There are also some protected anchorages around Choctawhatchee Bay, but if you have 50' bridge clearance issues, you'd have to go in through Panama City and up the ICW, which would slow you down a bit.

Instead of the castigation, why can we embrace the thought experiment and analyze the possible outcomes, including just circling around the navigable semicircle as Milton travels eastward. That is similar to what a boat did near Grenada earlier this season and most of the comments from y'all were positive. The problem with these storms in the Gulf is the, often, the entire northern shoreline is a lee shore; however, Milton's projected path puts the north gulf coast in the lee of the shoreline.

It seems somewhat counter-productive to ridicule someone's hurricane strategy and possibly shut them out of the conversation when it might beneficial to all of us to discuss it from a non-emotional perspective, backing up with weather data from buoys, accuracy of the forecast as it progresses, and the actual wind radii as Milton moves through the affected areas.

Thank you.

[Lee Jerry]

Originally Posted by thomm225

It's because someone might actually get convinced from these posts that it's a good idea to try and outguess the direction of a hurricane and outrun it on a slow sailboat and get killed.

You don't have to "outguess" it. They're called forecasts and they're pretty accurate.

You don't have to "outrun" it. Leave as early as required. It's completely in your control. Use the above forecasts.

Welcome to the 21st century, Thomm.

It's so easy to think you can when seeing a dot on a map that represents a hurricane.

On top of all that, the guy trying to convince everyone it's a good idea to try and outrun a hurricane has probably never done such a thing and may have never seen a hurricane up close and personal.

Nice. More Ad Hominem. So now you're accusing me of lying, too?

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by Lee Jerry

You don't have to "outguess" it. They're called forecasts and they're pretty accurate...

Indeed, they are extraordinarily accurate, given how complex, and chaotic weather systems are.
However, as the NHC reminds us:
Their average intensity error is 15 knots wind speed, for each day out.
Their average track error is 100 nautical miles, at 3 days out; 125nm, on day 4; and 175nm, on day 5.
"And users should not focus on the exact track."
["as there remains significant uncertainty in the eventual track and intensity"]

[thomm225]

Originally Posted by Lee Jerry

You don't have to "outguess" it. They're called forecasts and they're pretty accurate.

You don't have to "outrun" it. Leave as early as required. It's completely in your control. Use the above forecasts.

Welcome to the 21st century, Thomm.



Nice. More Ad Hominem. So now you're accusing me of lying, too?

Remember, you are still not putting yourself out there only "gaming' what you would do.

You can talk great escape plans all you like, but for most people going about their daily lives in an area where a hurricane could hit, it's a totally different scenario.

For many, it's not just about the boat.

There are the kids, the wives, their homes, grandparents, jobs, etc.

So you are pulled in many different directions.

Most aren't sitting around just worried about their boat.

As I said before, we had so many hurricanes while I was in Pensacola, most people didn't change what they had done before for a Cat 1 or Cat 2 storm.

The people living in my old apartment didn't even leave for that storm. That apartment ended up with 8' of water in the lower floors.

We sailors though did not have our usual hurricane party under the breezeway listening to the old cruiser guys predict which boats in the anchored in the hurricane hole in front of the complex would drag and be dismasted by the bridge.

We didn't watch as anchored boats that had moved a bit swung in the wind missing each other by a foot or so.

My point is most folks have more to worry about than trying to escape on their boat especially with the crazy idea of outrunning the storm offshore while leaving every one and everything else behind.

Most are prepping for a long no power and no fuel event. Buying water, batteries, food, gas, etc.

I think it was 2 weeks after Ivan before we got power.

On the 2nd morning after the storm, I warmed up water for coffee at the grill in our apartment complex. You had to use bottle water since the tap water was bad.

I had never seen so many stars while in the city since there was not a light on anywhere at 4 am

The Sewer Treatment Plant overflowed into the bay.

[catalystcat]

To respond to the original question, all choices have risk and your decision depends on a lot of factors. Each decision is somewhat of a separate judgment call. Things like storm spread, your risk tolerance, speed of your boat, speed of the storm (e.g., Milton has been sauntering, not racing), local protected holes, quality of the moorings/marinas/anchor grounds/pilings/breakwaters/protective shoals/etc. all should be factors.

As one example, don't just consider the path of the eye. Milton and Helene are/were very wide storms covering essentially the entire West Coast of Florida. With 100-200 mi of uncertainty, you should remember that for less compact storms, the winds can remain hurricane force for well over 100 mi from the center. Even though they didn't race toward the coast, it would be difficult to get out of the scary windfields without a fast boat or a very early start. On the other hand when a relatively compact Beryl blew through the southern Caribbean, Carriacou got smashed, while 40mi away in Southern Grenada, things were WAY less severe. BTW - it defied the models and went further south than predicted a day or two earlie. It also made an abrupt, unpredicted jog South the night before it hit. Many people who sailed South from places like St Lucia ended up in worse conditions than they would have had staying put.


As a second point, remember that Florida has a LOT of coast line with a large variety of features that affect their hurricane risk. A boat up the St John's in NE Florida has a very different risk profile than one near the Big Bend on the West coast. Up near Jacksonville, the offshore water is deeper, generally cooler, influenced by the Gulfstream, and hurricanes rarely strike directly in that area (they do get hit by both storms that cross the state and ones that are heading North along the E Coast, but rarely get full force direct hits). As you move a little further North the likelihood of impact is even lower.
The Gulf side has a different profile- generally the shallows extend much further offshore, storms push the water into the crook and it has fewer paths to dissipation. Routes out of the way of rapidly forming, spread out Gulf storms are about as rare as hen's teeth. Also, surges tend to push further inland.

The real advice is, don't wait until you are living in Florida to figure out what to do when a hurricane comes. Include that kind of thing in your decision about where to live and where to keep your boat.

You could, for example choose to live near one of the many little hurricane holes dispersed along the Florida coasts (e.g., along the East coast are Willoughby Creek in Stuart, places near Titusville, St Johns River, St Lucie River, Eau Gallie Harbor, Wabasso area, etc.). There are also reasonably protected marinas with "hurricane plans" that let you get your boat out of the water and strapped down on short notice. (e.g., Fort Pierce)

So, if you don't plan to head N (or S) of the hurricane zone, you give yourself a much better set of options/factors by incorporating the hurricane thinking into your decision about where to live and keep your boat.

As for marinas or docks, remember, there are wide variations there as well. Some even have jetted-in solo pilings that are not nearly as strong as pile driven, doubles or triples.
BOTTOM LINE - If you move to Florida, do your homework early and it should make the dock, anchor or run decision a lot more straightforward.

[Leadfree]

Thank you, Catalystcat, for answering in detail exactly what anyone who has spent time living in hurricane zones knows.

I cited above three articles describing what happened to folks who thought they could run. If you are considering running from a storm, do have a look at the links. And go right now and have a look at the satellite view of MILTON. I'm in South Florida and the weather is already fairly crap, squalls.

The way to run from storms is to leave before the season starts, to be honest. Otherwise, search out holes and have a plan.

[thomm225]

I still say this is mostly people "gaming" a hurricane scenario without realizing for most people there is so much more to worry about than just your boat.

As I mentioned above, you are usually pulled in so many different directions the priority of a boat is a ways down the list of things to get done before the storm hits.

Most are not going to leave their families to save their boat.

So now we are talking just single folks or older retired people where the boat is possibly their home.

I can remember folks that had their boats securely anchored in the hurricane hole near our apartment getting upset when other boat owners would come by and anchor their boat in the same area using something that looked like a lunch hook for an anchor with very little scope, and they were gone in less than 30 minutes.

Again, that's the reality. Boats are simply not that important when it comes to a life threatening Cat 3, 4, or 5 Hurricane.

The days leading up to the storm, things are crazy due to storm prep. This goes not only for home and family but for work as well.

My job at the time was on NAS Pensacola which is located on the water and is the first land you see when entering Pensacola Pass. There was lots of storm prep going on prior to.

It was nuts. Then you have half the workforce wanting to leave the area.

Things get crazy in a hurry prior to the arrival of a hurricane so for most boats are just not the most important thing.

[GordMay]

"HURRICANE AVOIDANCE TACTICS” by Steve Dashew [SetSail]
➥ https://setsail.com/wp-content/uploa..._avoidance.pdf

[5BTM]

Originally Posted by GordMay

"HURRICANE AVOIDANCE TACTICS” by Steve Dashew [SetSail]
➥ https://setsail.com/wp-content/uploa..._avoidance.pdf

Thank you for that.
The cloud info is especially useful.

Printed and filed.

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by 5BTM

Thank you for that.
The cloud info is especially useful.
Printed and filed.

“HURRICANE AVOIDANCE TACTICS” by Steve & Linda Dashew
➥ https://setsail.com/wp-content/uploa..._avoidance.pdf

was excerpted from:

Mariner's Weather Handbook: A Guide to Forecasting and Tactics ~ by Steve & Linda Dashew
598 pages ➥ https://setsail.com/mwh.pdf

[scherzoja]

Good morning y'all.

Current hypothetical position is:
29° 32.68' N
86° 15.16' W

NHC cone has changed little since yesterday.

Nearest weather buoys are:

NOAA buoy 42040 (100 miles west)
Wind: 21 kts NE,
Seas: 7.5' @ 5.5 sec interval
https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_pa...?station=42040

Oil platform Chevron Vicosa Knoll (80 west)
Winds: 27 kts NE,
Seas: no data
https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=kvoa

NOAA buoy 42012 (80 miles NW)
Winds: 18 kts NE
Seas: 5' @ 8 seconds out of SE
https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_pa...?station=42012

The forecast for wind radii on 10/9, just before landfall is the following:
26.4N 83.9W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 110SW 130NW.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refres.../071147.shtml?

For comparison, Helene's wind radii just prior to landfall were larger with the 34 kt radii almost double those of Milton.
28.8N 84.3W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 50SE 30SW 20NW.
50 KT... 80NE 90SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...270NE 270SE 120SW 120NW.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/202...adv.013.shtml?