Damage to boats, marina in downtown Gulfport Florida after Hurricane

[BlueH2Obound]

Originally Posted by Chotu

can’t wait to see how this challenge plays out. me? if i were in tampa?

i’d go here: (27.5009172, -82.5121807)

https://maps.app.goo.gl/YAKPWQdaXwksB3996?g_st=ic


Or…. here if navigable:

https://maps.app.goo.gl/VhHz529saUaepT5i6?g_st=ic

(27.8662118, -82.3127910)

Or here:

https://maps.app.goo.gl/vUs6gL56fJwxPZYWA

Oh, wait, that's our boat . . . . .at Ardoch . . . .

[BlueH2Obound]

Originally Posted by Shanachie

So, Lee Jerry of the many posts, how do you propose running from soon-to-be-hurricane Milton?

Four days out, the cone stretches from Cape Sable to Big Bend, almost the entire Gulf Coast of Florida.

Shanachie, Silly you, "he of the many posts" only tells you where you should have gone AFTER the storm passes . . . .

[Lee Jerry]

Originally Posted by thomm225

You just don't get it.

It's simply not a smart gamble with other options available.

Yeah, I do get it.

The "gamble" (of moving) is largely in your own control. With the proper preparation (as previously mentioned: capable boat, experienced crew, and good forecasting), the only remaining variable is departure timing. And you can make that as early as you want to minimize risk. The real gamble is leaving a boat in the path of a hurricane.

The big storms are simply too big to run from on a sailboat especially if leaving only 1 to 2 days early.

One day is likely too short except for maybe the smallest TS (I don't recall suggesting that time frame). Two days is the minimum I'd recommend (depending on the circumstances), three is likely better. No one is stopping you from going sooner. The forecasts are there and are accurate enough.

Do you not see how big Ivan was ?

If you lived in Pensacola as I did then, you'd have to leave a week early at least, and the path isn't as definite that early.

The Gif below shows Hurricane Ivan 3 days before it hit Pensacola. (on September 13th) It's still below Cuba! At that time, the storm was still heading NW. The turn is always hard to forecast so you would still not know exactly where it will hit.

You mean the GIF that shows landfall within what, ~20nm of actual landfall. And you knew it was coming before that 3-day notice. If you left then, three days at 5 kt is 360 nm away. That should be plenty safe even for Ivan.

It's NW Course was pretty much the same early on Tuesday the 14th. It hit on September 16th.

It was also a Cat 5 at that point with 160 knot winds.

That's max at/near the eye wall.

You guys talk like I'm advocating sailing directly into the eye. Let me say again that I'm NOT. The whole point is to AVOID the storm. It's (almost always) doable (in the proper boat); you just need to leave soon enough (for you).

All you would do would be to put your life in danger just to save your boat then the other lives that you would put in danger when you called for rescue ..... all over saving a boat from damage.

I'm not surprised that all you see is 'save your boat from damage.' It is potentially, and likely, a lot more than that.

How many boats break free and then cascade into many other boats? Maybe yours becomes the one to take out another dozen.

How about the carnage your boat is now a part of? Did it sink and become a hazard to navigation, or is it a couple miles inland, blocking emergency vehicles access?

How about the avoidable pollution you could be causing, both direct (fuel spillage) and indirect (the heavy machinery needed to clean up your wreckage)?

And then there is the effect on insurance? Just leave it the path of the storm and take the insurance payout if something happens. We're all looking forward to double rates, IF the carriers even stay in the market.

There are probably others I've missed. But I'm just trying to save my boat from a few scratches. Yeah...

When Katrina was on it's approach to New Orleans etc, the water leave in Pensacola was already at Cat 1 levels, and we didn't even get hit.

And...so what? NO-PNS is what, 120nm? That's half the distance I recommended.

And it would still be a better, safer place to be than in New Orleans, if for example, that was as far as you could go.

[Chotu]

Originally Posted by BlueH2Obound

Or here:

https://maps.app.goo.gl/vUs6gL56fJwxPZYWA

Oh, wait, that's our boat . . . . .at Ardoch . . . .

perfect! you will definitely win the run from the hurricane game there!

[Lee Jerry]

Originally Posted by Shanachie

Lee Jerry, your posts make me doubt that you are even a sailor, let alone one who has sailed the Florida coast. I picture you as a lurker or day sailor who likes to write strong opinions.

Ad hominin, always a strong position.

So you don't believe me when I said I had to run from Ernesto?

Your hurtful words make me sad.

Do have any thoughts that actually to address the topic? You asked how to proceed with Milton, I suggested going to Pensacola. Is Pensacola a safe harbor for Milton?

Once you pass Tarpon Springs going north, there are no safe places to hide and the water is shallow, which means you get those short, choppy conditions that beat the hell out of a boat and sailor.


Don't think so? Ask the boaters in Steinhatchee and Cedar Key or Crystal River, which is seven miles up the river.

I wouldn't be going north, I'd be going WNW on the rhumbline. This both shortens the travel time and provides sea room, which I like to have especially if foul weather is coming. YMMV.

In other words, it is risky and dumb to do what you say you would do. A hurricane can swerve without notice, and a sailor would die in that area if the storm did so.

As said in previous post, it's only as risky as you make it. Do you have a well-found boat? Is the crew competent? Did you leave in time? If the answer to all of these is "Yes" then IMHO the risk is minimal. Hardly more so than any other overnight sail. Probably still way safer than driving a car. (But no, that shouldn't be the metric.)


If one had left today, here are a couple current conditions off of Tampa Bay from the National Data Buoy Center. IMHO, it looks like it would have been a nice reach (to start, anyway).

weather 1.jpg Views: 16 Size: 250.4 KB ID: 294995" style="margin: 2px" />

I really wish you would stop offering advice that endangers other people. Someone might be naive enough to believe you.

It's up to each person to determine the best course of action for themselves based on the totality of the circumstances. If done "properly" it is not dangerous.

Perhaps in needs to be said that it is not appropriate for all boats. I wouldn't do it in a Sunfish (to be ridiculous). But if you have a 40 ft cruiser or racer/cruiser, it SHOULD be perfectly doable (depending on many things). If you're smaller, maybe with an undersized outboard strapped on the transom that comes out of the water with any wave action, then maybe think twice about it. I'm referring to "Cruising" boats. This is Cruisers Forum.

[Lee Jerry]

Originally Posted by BlueH2Obound

Shanachie, Silly you, "he of the many posts" only tells you where you should have gone AFTER the storm passes . . . .

Ummm...he asked about the COMING storm Milton and I responded. How is that "AFTER?"

[Lee Jerry]

Originally Posted by Chotu

for the challenge/game, when are we leaving tampa and what is the destination?


My game piece (imaginary boat) is going to be set right here for the hurricane :

https://maps.app.goo.gl/Tm8r7Lhb3J37UugZ8?g_st=ic

(27.8848616, -82.3067912)


A single day of motoring up the river/creek which i’ll do today

Does this imaginery boat have a mast?

[Chotu]

Originally Posted by Lee Jerry

Does this imaginery boat have a mast?

i got it on deck for the really deep upriver spot.

can get into the other spot no problem with it up

[scherzoja]

I don't understand the consternation some posters have regarding moving from Tampa to Pensacola to get out of the way of Milton. If one is capable, has a reliable boat (good sails, good engine), has the time, and way to get daily forecast while underway, why not leave?

I concur with Lee Jerry. If I had my boat in Tampa or Ft Meyers, I would have left yesterday. It's only 300 miles and the forecast for the NE quadrant of the Gulf is for NE winds up to 35 knots through Tuesday night. Sounds like a really great sail!

https://www.weather.gov/tae/marine

I'm near Pensacola and there are several places to anchor, tucked away up a creek. It seems like a no-brainer if you are skilled, have good boat, and the time. There are also some protected anchorages around Choctawhatchee Bay, but if you have 50' bridge clearance issues, you'd have to go in through Panama City and up the ICW, which would slow you down a bit.

Instead of the castigation, why can we embrace the thought experiment and analyze the possible outcomes, including just circling around the navigable semicircle as Milton travels eastward. That is similar to what a boat did near Grenada earlier this season and most of the comments from y'all were positive. The problem with these storms in the Gulf is the, often, the entire northern shoreline is a lee shore; however, Milton's projected path puts the north gulf coast in the lee of the shoreline.

It seems somewhat counter-productive to ridicule someone's hurricane strategy and possibly shut them out of the conversation when it might beneficial to all of us to discuss it from a non-emotional perspective, backing up with weather data from buoys, accuracy of the forecast as it progresses, and the actual wind radii as Milton moves through the affected areas.

[Chotu]

Originally Posted by scherzoja

I don't understand the consternation some posters have regarding moving from Tampa to Pensacola to get out of the way of Milton. If one is capable, has a reliable boat (good sails, good engine), has the time, and way to get daily forecast while underway, why not leave?

I concur with Lee Jerry. If I had my boat in Tampa or Ft Meyers, I would have left yesterday. It's only 300 miles and the forecast for the NE quadrant of the Gulf is for NE winds up to 35 knots through Tuesday night. Sounds like a really great sail!

https://www.weather.gov/tae/marine

I'm near Pensacola and there are several places to anchor, tucked away up a creek. It seems like a no-brainer if you are skilled, have good boat, and the time. There are also some protected anchorages around Choctawhatchee Bay, but if you have 50' bridge clearance issues, you'd have to go in through Panama City and up the ICW, which would slow you down a bit.

Instead of the castigation, why can we embrace the thought experiment and analyze the possible outcomes, including just circling around the navigable semicircle as Milton travels eastward. That is similar to what a boat did near Grenada earlier this season and most of the comments from y'all were positive. The problem with these storms in the Gulf is the, often, the entire northern shoreline is a lee shore; however, Milton's projected path puts the north gulf coast in the lee of the shoreline.

It seems somewhat counter-productive to ridicule someone's hurricane strategy and possibly shut them out of the conversation when it might beneficial to all of us to discuss it from a non-emotional perspective, backing up with weather data from buoys, accuracy of the forecast as it progresses, and the actual wind radii as Milton moves through the affected areas.

this is a good post. Place your game piece. Where are you?

We all started from Tampa Bay

[scherzoja]

Ok here's my chess piece:

Location of imaginary boat is near NOAA buoy 42036

Since I stipulated that I would have left yesterday, but the NHC did not publish the cone until 10am central time yesterday, I will set the departure date/time for 1pm eastern time on Saturday. That puts me at this waypoint at 530 eastern time (basically now).

28° 39.29' N
85° 05.48' W
Environmental data at buoy 42036:
https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_pa...?station=42036
Wind: ENE (70 degrees true) 25kts
Waves: ENE, 7.5, period 6 seconds

Heading to this waypoint to ensure well offshore of the shoals by Cape San Blas
28° 59.12' N
85° 50.42' W

After passing this waypoint around 9 or 10 tonight, I might harden up on the wind a bit (if seas are not too choppy) to get close to shore and possibly flatter seas so I can ease off when the wind shifts more to the NNE on Monday. Overnight, the winds are forecast to shift to the NNE, making this leg of the route a beam reach @ about 20 knots. If wind and sea are too far out of the north, giving me a close reach or close haul, I will ease off and head for Mobile Pass.

ETA at Pensacola is about 3pm eastern time on Monday, Oct 7th.
I entered this route in OpenCPN with a conservative speed through water of 5.5 knots (30' waterline). I'm using OpenCPN, NOAA buoy data, the NWS marine forecasts liked in previous posts, and Windy.

The return trip will be interesting, especially if I depart PNS late Tuesday.

[Chotu]

Originally Posted by scherzoja

Ok here's my chess piece:

Location of imaginary boat is near NOAA buoy 42036

Since I stipulated that I would have left yesterday, but the NHC did not publish the cone until 10am central time yesterday, I will set the departure date/time for 1pm eastern time on Saturday. That puts me at this waypoint at 530 eastern time (basically now).

28° 39.29' N
85° 05.48' W
Environmental data at buoy 42036:
https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_pa...?station=42036
Wind: ENE (70 degrees true) 25kts
Waves: ENE, 7.5, period 6 seconds

Heading to this waypoint to ensure well offshore of the shoals by Cape San Blas
28° 59.12' N
85° 50.42' W

After passing this waypoint around 9 or 10 tonight, I might harden up on the wind a bit (if seas are not too choppy) to get close to shore and possibly flatter seas so I can ease off when the wind shifts more to the NNE on Monday. Overnight, the winds are forecast to shift to the NNE, making this leg of the route a beam reach @ about 20 knots. If wind and sea are too far out of the north, giving me a close reach or close haul, I will ease off and head for Mobile Pass.

ETA at Pensacola is about 3pm eastern time on Monday, Oct 7th.
I entered this route in OpenCPN with a conservative speed through water of 5.5 knots (30' waterline). I'm using OpenCPN, NOAA buoy data, the NWS marine forecasts liked in previous posts, and Windy.

The return trip will be interesting, especially if I depart PNS late Tuesday.

this is fantastic! Thank you. This is really going to be enjoyable to see how we all do in this imaginary exercise. I’m staying in my little river.

I have to admit the seas are not nearly as bad as I thought they would be already. 25kn and 7.5 median wave height is doable (reefed probably).

A visualization:

[thomm225]

Right.

This is a game because Jerry Lee nor anyone else wouldn't really gamble taking their boat and their life offshore hoping to avoid a Hurricane just to save their boat.

It's simply not worth it which is why folks don't do it.

(But) You can have fun posting here about your plans to do such a thing all you like while sailing your keyboard through all kinds of tough seas and heavy winds!

[Chotu]

Originally Posted by thomm225

Right.

This is a game because Jerry Lee nor anyone else wouldn't really gamble taking their boat and their life offshore hoping to avoid a Hurricane just to save their boat.

It's simply not worth it which is why folks don't do it.

(But) You can have fun posting here about your plans to do such a thing all you like while sailing your keyboard through all kinds of tough seas and heavy winds!

you should join. What if you were in Tampa bay yesterday? What would you do? what is your course of action?

this will be very interesting because we’ll see what plans worked and what didn’t with a real storm.

I have to admit I’m a little nervous with my game piece. I see the M now and I see it heading straight for my piece way up the river. This boat did take Ian and 120 mile an hour sustained winds way up the Caloosahatchee river. BUT…. The river my game piece is in does not have a system of locks. it’s going to get tampa bay shoved up into it

[thomm225]

Originally Posted by scherzoja

I don't understand the consternation some posters have regarding moving from Tampa to Pensacola to get out of the way of Milton.

It's because someone might actually get convinced from these posts that it's a good idea to try and outguess the direction of a hurricane and outrun it on a slow sailboat and get killed.

It's so easy to think you can when seeing a dot on a map that represents a hurricane.

On top of all that, the guy trying to convince everyone it's a good idea to try and outrun a hurricane has probably never done such a thing and may have never seen a hurricane up close and personal.