Damage to boats, marina in downtown Gulfport Florida after Hurricane

[Lee Jerry]

Originally Posted by Shanachie

There is no effective way to run from a hurricane once it turns north and starts heading up along the Florida coast.

Of course there is. In this case of Helene, you could head West or South, depending on where you're starting from.

A change of course of a couple of degrees could mean 100 miles difference in landfall. Before Ian, someone in my marina went to a Fort Myers Beach boatyard to avoid the storm ...

Without more details, all I can surmise is they made a bad choice.

With climate change, storms are also becoming more sprawling. Helene's eye was more than 100 miles from Tampa Bay, yet it wreaked major havoc.

Not sure that's actually that new, but anyway, part of the reason I suggested moving 240nm.

The dock behind my townhouse looks like a roller coaster after being lifted by the storm surge. Two sailboats are on the bottom. A random powerboat from who knows where is sitting on the dock.

Not sure your point; seems to support my case.

I'm glad I decided to open my checkbook and move my boat from a free dock to a protected one.

Happy your boat is OK.

[Lee Jerry]

Originally Posted by thomm225

The 100' thing was so everyone here considering sailing out before a hurricane arrives on their small sailboat based on some weather forecast would understand it's a bad idea.

That depends on the situation - the location, the boat, the storm, the owner experience. There are certainly times where it is a bad idea. Other times it is the best idea.

If the storm is 500 plus miles wide, when do you leave? 4 to 5 days ahead of the storm which could turn. The storm bands reach way out. Which way do you go?

Again, that would depend entirely on the situation. But my hypothetical 240nm in 2 days gets you from the center of the path (eye) to within 10nm of the edge of the storm. "Out" would be better, but that should be plenty safe. If you start skewed to one side (of the path), then you are out.

As I said, I experienced maybe 8 hurricanes while in Pensacola, FL from 1995 - 2009.

You learn a lot going through those.

They are nothing to play around with especially a big Cat 3/4.

My profile currently shows Caribbean, but before that it said Gulf Coast. I lived there (technically still do) for a decade and a half. My mom has lived in FL for four or more decades. And we kept the boat in Pensacola for the year before we left cruising. I'm plenty familiar with tropical storms (of all strengths).

It's easy to make all sorts of great escape plans while sitting at your keyboard with a cold beer or warm cup of coffee after a good night's sleep.

Are you implying that's what I'm doing? As I said, I'm currently in the Caribbean. I was in St. Maarten when Ernesto was approaching. The locals weren't too concerned as it was only a TS at the time. We weren't taking any chances - we left, sailed south until the weather "moderated," then turned around and went right back (a little too soon, actually, but a story for a different time). I actually practice what I preach.

Also, those of us that have been through a few of these recognize how the low pressure can make you tired even before it arrives.

Also, after the storm passes, where to you plan to go with your boat? If your area did get hit, there may be no place for your boat left. That is when you are allowed to return.

If you can't return to a place after, why would you want to be there during? By leaving, you are undamaged and can go wherever.

With Cat 3/4 Ivan in 2004, all the docks were heavily damaged or destroyed totally. Also, no boats were allowed in the waters due to all the debris in the water.

There were lots of tornadoes within Hurricane Ivan as well.

Not sure your point; seems to support my case.

[Lee Jerry]

Originally Posted by Shanachie

This is just not true. You must not be familiar with the Gulf Coast of Florida. Take a look at a map of Florida and the size of Helene.


Significant damage stretched hundreds of miles from Sarasota to the Big Bend area. There was not "ample time" to do anything significant in terms of fleeing. And there was nowhere safe to go, anyway.

Of course there was time. How about Pensacola or Key West? Or just out to sea for a few days?

Winds did not cause most of the damage. The large storm surge did. We had a storm surge measuring as much as 8 feet in Tampa Bay that came in quickly and literally swept boats off their anchors in bays.



There is no place containing water that is protected from a major storm surge. All you can do is get into a protected marina or dock, use a lot of lines and hope for the best.

Sorry, but "hope" is not good enough for me. There is more you can do.

[Lee Jerry]

Originally Posted by sandy stone

The only problem is that if your boat happens to be one that's lost at sea, you're on the boat! The only sensible thing is to prepare the boat as best you can and get the heck out. Anybody who thinks otherwise must have never been through a hurricane - you can't imagine how violent they really are.

As I said: You're not going out INTO the storm (I agree that would be stupid); you're going out BEFORE the storm in order to avoid it (or at least the worst of it).

Also, as I said (subsequent to your post), live(d) on the Gulf Coast for >15 yr. I'm plenty familiar with hurricanes.

[Lee Jerry]

Originally Posted by cofc

This is the dumbest question that just happens to follow the dumbest advice. The number of boats lost at sea from Helene was near zero because there were near zero boats out to sea in the hurricane.

Do you know how many left "home" in the path of Helene for "distant shores?" What is "near zero?"

Whether or not a boat is safest at sea during a hurricane is of no consequence because a person would need to be on it. And it is absolutely the worst place a person could be during the hurricane.

"During" a hurricane is not the same as "in" the hurricane.

As I said: You're not going out INTO the storm (I agree that would be stupid); you're going out BEFORE the storm in order to avoid it (or at least the worst of it).

It really shouldn't be that difficult of a concept.

[Lee Jerry]

Originally Posted by Shanachie

There are a couple of problems with your logic.


One is that tropical storms and hurricanes are not rare. We might get two or three a year that pose a potential threat. So you would do a 600-mile trip each time?

Yes, if that's what it requires.

Also, 50 miles a day might be a better figure than 100, especially if you are singlehanding. That's very likely, considering other people have jobs and also have to prepare their homes.

If your boat can only make 50 nm per day, then I agree you are not a good candidate for re-locating prior to a hurricane.

In addition, just because one forecast is accurate does not mean that all will be. You would need a wonderful crystal ball to be able to separate the good from the bad predictions.

They're still weather, and weather is chaotic, but trop storm predictions generally get better every day (year).

Further up in the thread, I talked about someone in my marina who traveled 140 miles to Fort Myers Beach to avoid Ian, which was predicted to hit Tampa Bay at one point, then saw his boat sustain serious damage in a boatyard.

Isn't that more like 90 nm?

Life's decisions seem much simpler when you're not actually confronting the situations.

I'm currently living it. I check the NHC at least twice a day.

[Lee Jerry]

The dock behind my townhouse looks like a roller coaster after being lifted by the storm surge. Two sailboats are on the bottom. A random powerboat from who knows where is sitting on the dock.

With Cat 3/4 Ivan in 2004, all the docks were heavily damaged or destroyed totally. Also, no boats were allowed in the waters due to all the debris in the water.

There were lots of tornadoes within Hurricane Ivan as well.

What?

The Navy Base in Pensacola had a Floating Dock.

It was lifted over it's anchoring pilings during Hurricane Ivan's surge in 2004 leaving most of the boats behind.

That floating dock and the boats still attached then proceeded to be blown through all the anchored boats in one of the local hurricane holes destroying all those but one.

Winds did not cause most of the damage. The large storm surge did. We had a storm surge measuring as much as 8 feet in Tampa Bay that came in quickly and literally swept boats off their anchors in bays.

There is no place containing water that is protected from a major storm surge.

The surge was so high in other places that some floating docks came off their pilings. Some of them in Gulfport, Fl., ended up on the main street in downtown.

Do you all (or y'all, but I'm not a native Southerner) not see the irony of touting tying your boat up to something (dock, tree, the bottom...) during a storm and then showing all the things that go wrong when you do?


Let me close with just two questions:
1. Is it better for the boat (that was the OP's question) to be in the path of a storm or out of the path of the storm?

Assuming you favor the latter:
2. Is it easier to move the storm or to move the boat?

[Shanachie]

So, Lee Jerry of the many posts, how do you propose running from soon-to-be-hurricane Milton?


Four days out, the cone stretches from Cape Sable to Big Bend, almost the entire Gulf Coast of Florida.



No matter where you run, the storm may get you. The people who forecast for a living are not sure where it is going. Perhaps they should consult you for the final word because, of course, you know.



Also, the seas are already getting rough. Anyone venturing out in them runs the risk of getting plucked up by a rescue helicopter, in which case other geniuses will talk about the stupidity of sailing into a storm.


So you would be limited to the ICW, where hidey holes are scarce and 40 miles a day is good time when you have to negotiate bridges.



It's easy to dispense wisdom when you don't have knowledge. As Will Rogers once said, the most dangerous people are the ones who know things that just ain't so.

[EmeraldCoastSailor]

Originally Posted by thomm225

What?

The Navy Base in Pensacola had a Floating Dock.

It was lifted over it's anchoring pilings during Hurricane Ivan's surge in 2004 leaving most of the boats behind.

That floating dock and the boats still attached then proceeded to be blown through all the anchored boats in one of the local hurricane holes destroying all those but one.

My intent was to say if the storm surge is moderate or worse you need to leave a fixed dock arrangement. If you are in a floating dock situation then of course you have to base your leave or stay decision on expected surge. If it isn't expected to be more than the docks can handle then I'd stay unless I had a terrific hurricane hole. Some floating docks can deal with a lot of surge. Ivan was a terrible storm with huge surge; it destroyed my beach wallkover and I live 100 miles away. I can't recall if Ivan's actual surge exceeded forecast surge; I don't think so.

[Lee Jerry]

Originally Posted by Shanachie

So, Lee Jerry of the many posts, how do you propose running from soon-to-be-hurricane Milton?

Four days out, the cone stretches from Cape Sable to Big Bend, almost the entire Gulf Coast of Florida.

No matter where you run, the storm may get you. The people who forecast for a living are not sure where it is going. Perhaps they should consult you for the final word because, of course, you know.

Also, the seas are already getting rough. Anyone venturing out in them runs the risk of getting plucked up by a rescue helicopter, in which case other geniuses will talk about the stupidity of sailing into a storm.

So you would be limited to the ICW, where hidey holes are scarce and 40 miles a day is good time when you have to negotiate bridges.

It's easy to dispense wisdom when you don't have knowledge. As Will Rogers once said, the most dangerous people are the ones who know things that just ain't so.

That's a pretty easy call. (Assuming a boat similar size/capability to mine.)

I'd wait 1 to 2 days re-checking the forecasted track (frequently). I'd be fueled and stocked up, ready to go. I may even stage the boat closer to the mouth, depending on where "home" is in the bay (Tampa). Assuming it (forecast) doesn't change much, I'd depart ~Monday afternoon / evening* headed toward Pensacola. It's ~300 nm mouth of bay to mouth of bay. Again at 5 kt (not too demanding), that's two and a half days. Less than 2 days at 6 kt. Might you see TS force winds towards the end of this trip? Probably (although currently only shows ~30% chance), but that doesn't bother me. If it does you, then leave earlier. (Do you have storm or heavy weather sails?) You could also consider Panama City or Destin or others if you'd like to make landfall sooner (I wouldn't, but I'm not too familiar with them).

* Since the route is not at 90 deg to the expected path due to the geograhy, it could/would probably make sense to leave ~12 hr earlier. You could also leave ASAP-ish, to be more conservative (or if you have a slower boat).

I'd also have a way to get weather / hurricane updates while at sea. (I have Starlink.)

I'd choose Pensacola over Key West for two reasons. First, it puts you on the "better" side of the storm. Second, more sea room to the west; KW has Cuba in the way to the south. I'd avoid the ICW; it's the opposite of "sea room" (but maybe that's just me). (Helene was a little further north, so KW might have been a more viable option.)

If it matters, I've done this (round) trip twice. As I said above, I used to keep my boat in Pensacola.

Of course, if the forecast changes (in those 1-2 days), the plan may have to as well.

So, that's what I'd do. It seems like a better option than throwing out a couple anchors and hoping nothing bad happens. But then again, I don't know anything...


Edit: I'd probably leave Monday morning...


2nd edit: Whatever you choose, good luck and be safe.

[Chotu]

can’t wait to see how this challenge plays out. me? if i were in tampa?

i’d go here: (27.5009172, -82.5121807)

https://maps.app.goo.gl/YAKPWQdaXwksB3996?g_st=ic


Or…. here if navigable:

https://maps.app.goo.gl/VhHz529saUaepT5i6?g_st=ic

(27.8662118, -82.3127910)

[GordMay]

[thomm225]

Originally Posted by Lee Jerry

Let me close with just two questions:
1. Is it better for the boat (that was the OP's question) to be in the path of a storm or out of the path of the storm?

Assuming you favor the latter:
2. Is it easier to move the storm or to move the boat?

You just don't get it.

It's simply not a smart gamble with other options available.

The big storms are simply too big to run from on a sailboat especially if leaving only 1 to 2 days early.

Do you not see how big Ivan was ?

If you lived in Pensacola as I did then, you'd have to leave a week early at least, and the path isn't as definite that early.

The Gif below shows Hurricane Ivan 3 days before it hit Pensacola. (on September 13th) It's still below Cuba! At that time, the storm was still heading NW. The turn is always hard to forecast so you would still not know exactly where it will hit.

It's NW Course was pretty much the same early on Tuesday the 14th. It hit on September 16th.

It was also a Cat 5 at that point with 160 knot winds.

All you would do would be to put your life in danger just to save your boat then the other lives that you would put in danger when you called for rescue ..... all over saving a boat from damage.

When Katrina was on it's approach to New Orleans etc, the water leave in Pensacola was already at Cat 1 levels, and we didn't even get hit.

[Chotu]

@thomm: not to mention the sea state anywhere in the gulf of mexico during that


here is the current gulf forecast.

for the challenge/game, when are we leaving tampa and what is the destination?


My game piece (imaginary boat) is going to be set right here for the hurricane :

https://maps.app.goo.gl/Tm8r7Lhb3J37UugZ8?g_st=ic

(27.8848616, -82.3067912)


A single day of motoring up the river/creek which i’ll do today

What’s everyone’s strategy?


GMZ046-062130-
Central Gulf from 22N to 26N between 87W and 91W-
520 AM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024

...HURRICANE WARNING...

.TODAY...S to SW winds 10 kt, shifting to SW to W in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft or less.
Scattered showers and isolated tstms.
.TONIGHT...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. NW to N winds
10 to 15 kt, becoming E to SE 15 to 20 kt late. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Scattered showers and isolated tstms.
.MON...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED. S of 24N, SE to S
winds 25 to 30 kt, increasing to 45 to 50 kt in the afternoon.
N of 24N, NE to E winds 25 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft in SW to W
swell, building to 9 to 13 ft in SW to W swell in the afternoon.
Numerous showers and scattered tstms.
.MON NIGHT...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED. S of 24N, S winds
70 to 85 kt. N of 24N, NE to E winds 30 to 35 kt, increasing to
40 to 45 kt late. Seas 13 to 20 ft in SW swell.
Numerous showers and scattered tstms.
.TUE...HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. S of 24N, W winds 70 to
90 kt, becoming W to NW 50 to 60 kt in the afternoon. N of 24N,
NE winds 75 to 95 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft in E swell.
.TUE NIGHT...HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
.WED...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
.WED NIGHT...N winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft in NE swell.
.THU...N winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft in NE swell.

$$

[Shanachie]

Lee Jerry, your posts make me doubt that you are even a sailor, let alone one who has sailed the Florida coast. I picture you as a lurker or day sailor who likes to write strong opinions.



Once you pass Tarpon Springs going north, there are no safe places to hide and the water is shallow, which means you get those short, choppy conditions that beat the hell out of a boat and sailor.


Don't think so? Ask the boaters in Steinhatchee and Cedar Key or Crystal River, which is seven miles up the river.



In other words, it is risky and dumb to do what you say you would do. A hurricane can swerve without notice, and a sailor would die in that area if the storm did so.


I really wish you would stop offering advice that endangers other people. Someone might be naive enough to believe you.