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Old 26-08-2024, 11:13   #316
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Re: C&N managed yacht sinks off Sicily, 7 missing

The cost of raising her and the year-long investigation will probably cost more than the ship is insured for. How does that all work in terms of insurance? Would insurer have to foot bill for the lost yacht as well as the salvage & investigation? If crew are blamed : does insurer (and others) go after C&N?
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Old 26-08-2024, 11:32   #317
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Re: C&N managed yacht sinks off Sicily, 7 missing

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Knockdown should not automatically sink a boat...

With three watertight compartments it should not have sunk even if one of the three (and possibly two of the three) were completely full and yet it did.

There is enough unknown that it is interesting. I am sure the investigation will take months. The boat is likely insured and as such the insurance company will leave no stone unturned especially if they can target the deeper pocked designer. Suing the captain for $40M isn't going to be worth anything even if you win.

You could be right your entire sequence of events may be correct but the boat shouldn't have sunk. It is a design issue, crew mistakes, or a combination of both.
Thanks!

Given that it did sink, it would appear those watertight compartments weren't very watertight, and the knockdown event wasn't the same as a knockdown for a typical sailboat that rights itself more proximately.

The hull and mast are reported as physically intact. If that's correct, then to me that means the only explanation left is that the big mast and raised keel kept her heeled over long enough for water to ingress to the point of sinking her. Assuming the "water tight" compartments are only water tight if they are properly closed off, then they weren't closed off for whatever reason...

When all other explanations are ruled out, the remaining explanation is the one most likely to be the case, however unlikely.

I don't think design v crew will ever get resolved. The designers are gonna say Bayesian would not have sunk if the crew had properly closed up the hull; the crew is going to say the boat should not be designed such that it has to be perfectly buttoned up every time the weather radar shows a bit of red.

I picture her bow low b/c of the anchor point; heeled over from a downblast (or whatever wind hits her sideways); staying there b/c that mast is so huge; water flooding in so fast the center of gravity just keeps getting lower and lower toward the front of the boat. The more the stern is elevated, the less the boat can right itself b/c that mast is pretty for forward, and instead of rolling back over on a long axis back to level, the weight of the mast keeps the bow submerged while the boat fills up with water. The more the bow is pointing down, the less able the boat is to pick the mast up out of the water; any rotational righting force at that point just turns the boat along an axis increasingly perpendicular to the surface of the water instead of parallel to it...

I am absolutely fascinated by this story, and cannot express my appreciation strongly enough for those of you who post here. I won't perseverate in furthering my theories, but I do look forward to the real explanation coming out.

FWIW, I think blaming the whole thing on a failure to anticipate bad weather is a bit of a stretch (not that anyone is at this point except the Perini). Sure; a storm is coming. Let's make sure the toys and cushions don't get blown away. Nobody's thinking a downdraft is about to heel us over long enough to sink us, b/c that just doesn't happen. Then when she does heel over and stays there unexpectedly, chaos instead of an orderly sequence--and in any case the crew is now in the water.
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Old 26-08-2024, 11:33   #318
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Re: C&N managed yacht sinks off Sicily, 7 missing

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Originally Posted by Johan Leopard51 View Post
The cost of raising her and the year-long investigation will probably cost more than the ship is insured for. How does that all work in terms of insurance? Would insurer have to foot bill for the lost yacht as well as the salvage & investigation? If crew are blamed : does insurer (and others) go after C&N?
It depends on the policy but if the insurance policy covers the the cost to raise/salvage a vessel then the insurance company is on the hook. If not then given the financial means of the deceased owner I have to imagine the state is going to go after the estate to recover the vessel especially given its location.

Insurance company investigation would just be a cost of doing business. Any third party investigation would be the cost of that party.
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Old 26-08-2024, 11:41   #319
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Re: C&N managed yacht sinks off Sicily, 7 missing

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Originally Posted by jimthompsonmd View Post
I don't think design v crew will ever get resolved. The designers are gonna say Bayesian would not have sunk if the crew had properly closed up the hull; the crew is going to say the boat should not be designed such that it has to be perfectly buttoned up every time the weather radar shows a bit of red.
Resolved to everyone's satisfaction probably not but one wrinkle is the insurance company is on the hook for a huge bill and they would like to recover at least some of that from third parties. The crew and captain likely have no substantial means. Getting a $40M judgement against the captain isn't worth the paper it is written on. However the designer/builder does have substantial means. So the insurance company will likely try to show the design was flawed. The whole thing from recovery to investigation to the multiple trials/lawsuits will take years to play out.

Maybe the design house has their ducks in a row but if not the insurance company would gain access to internal communication related to the design and disaster as part of discovery. Keep in mind liability doesn't have to be all or none. The insurance company hypothetically could win in a court case where the design company is found to be say 35% liable and the crew 65% liable.

Quote:
FWIW, I think blaming the whole thing on a failure to anticipate bad weather is a bit of a stretch (not that anyone is at this point except the Perini). Sure; a storm is coming. Let's make sure the toys and cushions don't get blown away. Nobody's thinking a downdraft is about to heel us over long enough to sink us, b/c that just doesn't happen. Then when she does heel over and stays there unexpectedly, chaos instead of an orderly sequence--and in any case the crew is now in the water.
To a degree but lowering the keel, closing the garage doors, ensuring the interior watertight doors remain closed, ensuring that use of the saloon doors is limited and closed between uses would be prudent in bad weather even if not done during good weather. Maybe they did all that but maybe not. Most disasters aren't one root cause but a confluence of vessel design choices, ambient conditions, and actions take or not taken. It may be most or all of what has been speculated played a role to some degree or another.

One interesting thing to me in regards to crew negligence is that the passengers who survived came up to the deck prior to the final sinking on their own. There doesn't appear to be any muster of the passengers/crew to lifeboats, no attempt by the crew to wake up passengers directly, there wasn't any general alarm, the vessel deployed no EPIRB, no DSC call, no voice mayday was sent,. Nothing not even an emergency flare. It just sunk with the only survivors being those already on deck and then the first emergency communication was a flare from the life raft fired about 5-10 minutes after the vessel was entirely under water. That is ... unusual. If I was an investigator I would want to know the exact sequence of events and actions of the crew in a 12-15 minute sinking in which no emergency communication happened until after the vessel had sunk.
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Old 26-08-2024, 11:42   #320
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Re: C&N managed yacht sinks off Sicily, 7 missing

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Originally Posted by MicHughV View Post
...

The issue as I see it, it was a sudden massive influx of water, which doomed this yacht.
For this yacht to sink in the 16 odd minutes or so we are told, meant the the influx of water must have been severe....

/
Some report 60 seconds once the sea enter the engine room by the air intakes the sinking is very fast, as witnessed.
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Old 26-08-2024, 11:48   #321
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Re: C&N managed yacht sinks off Sicily, 7 missing

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Some report 60 seconds once the sea enter the engine room by the air intakes the sinking is very fast, as witnessed.
Later reports including those by the captain and crew put the time from flooding to is sinking at 12-15 minutes.

A vessel this size designed with 3 water tight compartments below deck sinking in <60 seconds is very hard to imagine in anything short of not just striking something below the waterline but tear the hull open on a long enough stretch that all three compartments were compromised and simultaneously flooding.
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Old 26-08-2024, 11:52   #322
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Re: C&N managed yacht sinks off Sicily, 7 missing

My experience with these cases is that the insurance company will follow the money.
Anybody and anything, even remotely tied to this vessel will come under the gun, this will include the builders of the yacht as well, their suppliers, etc, etc.
Likely, we'll see some (if not a lot) " out-of-court" settlements.

This why this case is likely to last for months, if not years.
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Old 26-08-2024, 13:09   #323
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Re: C&N managed yacht sinks off Sicily, 7 missing

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Originally Posted by jimthompsonmd View Post

I picture her bow low b/c of the anchor point; heeled over from a downblast (or whatever wind hits her sideways); staying there b/c that mast is so huge; water flooding in so fast the center of gravity just keeps getting lower and lower toward the front of the boat. The more the stern is elevated, the less the boat can right itself b/c that mast is pretty for forward, and instead of rolling back over on a long axis back to level, the weight of the mast keeps the bow submerged while the boat fills up with water. The more the bow is pointing down, the less able the boat is to pick the mast up out of the water; any rotational righting force at that point just turns the boat along an axis increasingly perpendicular to the surface of the water instead of parallel to it...
On a screen grab I saw of her AIS, her bow was on same heading as COG at the end, so possibly anchor and chain hanging down. If that suddenly gripped at even a modest speed, your scenario of bow going submarine, with THAT mast well forward…. So arse over? But some accounts mention crew flying off with a 25 degree sudden heel.

That AIS track is very puzzling (if we are seeing right info). Seems she dragged around 35 MILES toward ESE, then there is a very straight track WNW (about 20 miles under power?) direction where she started, then it goes pear-shaped (lost power?)

This all did not play out in immediate surrounds of where she initially anchored IF reports that the evening started just outside Porticello are correct. That process of drag to Cefalu then partial back NNW then aimless back to Cefalu and then the end would have taken hours. Where was Sir Robert Baden Powell when that video showed her and they saw the flare?

Whatever happened, it will be a very interesting investigation! Also for lessons to avoid such tragedies.
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Old 26-08-2024, 13:41   #324
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Re: C&N managed yacht sinks off Sicily, 7 missing

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Originally Posted by Johan Leopard51 View Post

That AIS track is very puzzling (if we are seeing right info). Seems she dragged around 35 MILES toward ESE, then there is a very straight track WNW (about 20 miles under power?) direction where she started, then it goes pear-shaped (lost power?)

LOL, are you serious or trolling . . . . no . . . . that is the track of her day's outing. OFC she did NOT drag anchor 35 miles.

She only dragged at anchor a few hundred meters.

There is a way zoomed in AIS picture that shows her swinging arc at anchor and then shows the drag.
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Old 26-08-2024, 14:03   #325
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Re: C&N managed yacht sinks off Sicily, 7 missing

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Originally Posted by Johan Leopard51 View Post
On a screen grab I saw of her AIS, her bow was on same heading as COG at the end, so possibly anchor and chain hanging down.
Does AIS really show orientation of the vessel? I thought it shows COG (from GPS positions) and the avatar assumes orientation based on direction of travel. How does AIS get orientation?

Anyway. I have watched the replay and there is no backwards movement after 2.06 UTC when AIS stopped (when power was lost).

Anchor undoubtedly broke loose from the ground at the beginning and could have acted as a drogue when the yacht was blown downwind. Might have snagged something at the end. Have not seen any report of the state of the anchor and/or chain.

Another question is the state of the boat locker. Reports say that is on the starboard side and could have been open if the tender was in the water. Possible source of water ingress. So much to learn...So sad. I am curious because I do care....
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Old 26-08-2024, 14:27   #326
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Re: C&N managed yacht sinks off Sicily, 7 missing

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Does AIS really show orientation of the vessel? I thought it shows COG (from GPS positions) and the avatar assumes orientation based on direction of travel. How does AIS get orientation?
Class A AIS reports vessel heading (and rate of turn) in addition to COG.
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Old 26-08-2024, 14:28   #327
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Re: C&N managed yacht sinks off Sicily, 7 missing

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Does AIS actually report draft and if so is it changed or static?

The marine traffic page showed a draft of 3.8m but it is that from the raw AIS data or is the website cross referencing the MMSI from the AIS to static data about the vessel.

On edit:
Half answered my question. Draft is reported for class A vessels as part of message 5. It is unclear if this vessel ever reports anything other than 3.8. Maybe they do have it programmed to change based on keel but would anyone care enough to do that.

https://www.navcen.uscg.gov/ais-class-a-reports

Yep, short answer is we really don't KNOW until the ship is raised. The evidence points to the keel being up but we won't KNOW until the ship is raised and examined. The divers might know the keel position but given they were trying retrieve the victims, I doubt they cared about the keel issue.

The divers did a great job.
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Old 26-08-2024, 14:34   #328
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Re: C&N managed yacht sinks off Sicily, 7 missing

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...
Will the yacht be raised ?? Who can say, but I'd say the odds are that it will be, considering it's location....
The Italian investigating authorities says the ship will be raised.
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Old 26-08-2024, 15:06   #329
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Re: C&N managed yacht sinks off Sicily, 7 missing

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The Italian investigating authorities says the ship will be raised.
it will have several 10's of thousands of liters of diesel on board. Plus an assortment of other nasty things. So, I would guess there is an obligation to remove the wreck.
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Old 26-08-2024, 15:16   #330
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Re: C&N managed yacht sinks off Sicily, 7 missing

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it will have several 10's of thousands of liters of diesel on board. Plus an assortment of other nasty things. So, I would guess there is an obligation to remove the wreck.

Yes, and they said they first needed to removed the diesel. With the loss of life, and outstanding questions regarding the sinking, they really do need to raise the ship and they are supposed to do it later this year. The owner is responsible for the cost from what I read.
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