C&N managed yacht sinks off Sicily, 7 missing

[PippaB]

Tornadoes/tornadic water spouts are not unknown in the area, with the 1551 waterspout/tornado in Valleta, Malta and the 1851 Marsala, Sicily (about 60 miles from today's incident) tornadoes both being on the top-10 list of deadliest tornadoes. The Malta event ravaged Grand Harbour, and capsized and sank at least four ships. Malta, Marsala

I attribute some of the way the news is phrased as poor translation from witnesses talking about the event in Italian or Sicilian (and several other languages). It seems clear from a number of sources that the vessel was anchored and hiding from weather (apparently not well enough).

A tornadic water spout could have winds well over 100 knots, and it is flinging a lot of water around at that speed, so loads are not just density of air, but also water.

RIP to those that did not make it out.

[team karst]

We had two waterspouts near us just last month. Both times at anchor. The first showed no movement for the 10 minutes it stayed intact. The second was days later at a different anchorage. Dead ahead, also around a mile away. That one was 'overtaken' by a storm cloud that did hit us with rain. That gave me real pause, since it was cloaked in rain...

[Invictus69]

According to this video, the skipper of the neighboring yacht which rescued the 15 people from the life-raft, says that they noticed the life raft after Bayesian was gone and the storm subdued.Then they alerted the coast guard. It is very strange that there wasn't a Mayday call from Bayesian nor any attempt to communicate with the neighboring ships at anchor.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bY7TGND4H-g

[Tillsbury]

Distinctly possible there wasn’t time for any mayday. I was on board a 65’ racing boat in the Solent when a 60+kt squall hit and we went straight over to 90 degrees in seconds. As mentioned above, if there was a sizeable transom or topsides opening and all the hatches open it could have taken on lots of water instantly. In hot weather at anchor you’re not going to have every watertight bulkhead shut— if anything you’d have them all open to get air through the boat.

Surprising though that the skipper of the neighbouring boat has enough warning to be running engines and trying to stay in position. If there was warning, they perhaps should have been closing hatches.

I can certainly imagine that being at anchor in a boat of that size in the med you’re not going to be thinking about imminent sinking as a possibility though

[boatman61]

Knockdowns happen very fast not leaving much time to do anything other than hang on.. if you come back up you can start getting your act together..
Experienced this N of the Bahama Bank when drifting with full sail in a light SW and getting hit by a 45kt Norther.. all the two of us could do was grab and hang on so we didn't go over the side.
Thankfully she came back up, this was a 54ft steel Bruce Roberts.

[Bowdrie]

Just some musings.
Don't vessels of that size generally have massive amounts of generating and air-conditioning capacity expressly for the purpose of being able to keep all their weather ports/hatches/sliding doors closed during hot weather?
And over the years I've noticed that designers have become more enamored with having huge amounts of superstructure/weight/windage that's well above the water and relatively small amounts of boat under the water.
I believe it's a trend that bodes ill.
How much weight of water needs to come aboard in a very short time to overcome the reserve buoyancy, (even allowing for free surface,) in something of that size?
10 tons, 20 tons?

[skipperpete]

Originally Posted by Bowdrie

Just some musings.
Don't vessels of that size generally have massive amounts of generating and air-conditioning capacity expressly for the purpose of being able to keep all their weather ports/hatches/sliding doors closed during hot weather?
And over the years I've noticed that designers have become more enamored with having huge amounts of superstructure/weight/windage that's well above the water and relatively small amounts of boat under the water.
I believe it's a trend that bodes ill.
How much weight of water needs to come aboard in a very short time to overcome the reserve buoyancy, (even allowing for free surface,) in something of that size?
10 tons, 20 tons?

Bowdrie , you’re 100% correct about the climate control, she would have been buttoned up pretty tight in hot weather. A previous Ron holland design not unlike Bayesian ( but GRP construction) had a similar maximum draught of 33’ and a 50 tonne lifting keel. A 50 tonne keel in the raised position (12’6” draught) would be a dangerous proposition in a knockdown if it came adrift in whatever platecase it had to constrain it. It would certainly explain the dramatic loss of stability and then bouyancy leading to the very rapid sinking.

[Greg K]

All speculation at this point. My understanding is that there were two boats at anchor. The one in front which rescued the survivors ran its engines to prevent dragging on the Bayesian. Probably Bayesian, too, had dragged, and, if so, it is possible that she was holed on impact with Formiche, a reef and an outcrop of two rocks in the general area they anchored.

That's about the only explanation that makes sense to me at this point.

Once divers have a look at the hull, it should be much easier to figure out what happened.

https://visitsantaflavia.it/scoglio-della-formica/

[Invictus69]

Another angle - I was searching on X for some more insights including the name of the owner. I would just leave it here as is - not sure how credible these accounts are:



https://x.com/BGatesIsaPyscho/status...48541840142358


https://x.com/MattWallace888/status/1825648127585693869


https://www.superyachtfan.com/pt/yacht/bayesian/


https://www.superyachtfan.com/wp-con...Mike-Lynch.jpg


Just look at the size of this, what kind of wind can capsize a 470 tons displacement?

[Invictus69]

some more:


https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...ily-storm.html


"The 'missing superyacht six': Morgan Stanley International chairman Jonathan Bloomer and his wife amongst those to have disappeared' off the coast of Sicily after freak waterspout sank British tech tycoon Mike Lynch's luxury vessel"

[dannc]

The witness that helped rescue the survivors was at anchor near the ship and said the vessel was there and then it was not. He saw it capsize quickly.

To capsize quickly suggests there was a stability issue which made me wonder if the ship had a lifting keel. If there was a lifting keel and it was up when the water spout hit...

Just saw an interview with the witness and a couple of the comments on the video said the ship had a lifting keel and that AIS was showing the vessels draft at 3.8 meters...

[Kit_L]

From https://www.superyachttimes.com/yachts/bayesian

OVERALL LENGTH
55.9 m
BEAM
11.51 m
DRAUGHT MAX.
9.73 m
GROSS TONNAGE
473

Mast is described as 75m high.

[El Pinguino]

I'm not sure what the angle of vanishing stability and downflooding angle requirements are on yachts of that size but - going on my big ship stability experience - probably a lot less than on the yachts owned by us mere mortals.
Rather a lot of windage on that rig even with no sail set and a huge lever.
Would not have needed to capsize - just down flood.
Doesn't appear to have been 'instant' in that 15 got away in the raft but a lot going on in a very short space of time which would be why no mayday.

[Colin Stone]

The UK MAIB report will be interesting - which will look at the design aspects as well as the actual event. It will take a year or so though.

As for conspiracy - a Mike Lynch co-defendent died after being hit by a car while out for a run. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/ce38n4egqwzt

[GordMay]

Who is British tech tycoon Mike Lynch?
➥ https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cdxl5kpvrg9o

Mike Lynch, and his daughter [1 of 2], Hannah, are reported as being among six people missing, while his wife, Angela Bacares, was among the fifteen persons rescued.