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22-08-2024, 09:48
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#181
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2020
Location: SoCal
Boat: 35' Alden Design Cutter
Posts: 682
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Re: C&N managed yacht sinks off Sicily, 7 missing
https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/22/europ...ntl/index.html
The British-flagged vessel, with 22 passengers and crew members on board, rapidly sank after its mast, one of the world’s tallest, broke in half during a violent storm. Fifteen people were rescued on Monday and one body was recovered – thought to be that of the onboard chef Recaldo Thomas. Six others were initially reported missing.
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22-08-2024, 10:07
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#182
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2011
Location: Panschwitz, Germany
Boat: Woods Mira 35 Catamaran
Posts: 4,701
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Re: C&N managed yacht sinks off Sicily, 7 missing
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tupaia
E&OE disclaimer.
"Estimating" the displacement of 450 tonnes and a partially open stern garage approximately 2 m². Using Torricelli’s law to establish the flow rate at 1 meter depth.
t=V vol displaced/Q flow rate= 450m³/8.86m³/s≈51seconds
Assuming there was some bulkhead doors but ignoring any other outside door openings a sinking time of 2 mins is more than possible.
Example; an intrinsically negatively buoyant 40ft yacht with displacement of 8 tonne with a 6 in diameter hole 1 meter below the waterline would take about 100 seconds to sink.
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I'd almost bet your right on the money. Garagedoor not fully closed combined with open bulkhead door forward of it is my guess too.
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22-08-2024, 10:17
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#183
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Senior Cruiser

Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Thunder Bay, Ontario - 48-29N x 89-20W
Boat: (Cruiser Living On Dirt)
Posts: 51,843
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Re: C&N managed yacht sinks off Sicily, 7 missing
Quote:
Originally Posted by PippaB
There has been speculation at least that Bayesian was hit by or very close to a tornadic waterspout. It is not a difficult scenario to imagine literally tons of water landing on her from above at the same time as the knockdown, potentially contributing to a slower than calculated righting.
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In a tornadic watertspout, the visible funnel is NOT water, pulled up from the sea, but IS cumulus clouds, pulled down, from the sky.
__________________
Gord May
"If you didn't have the time or money to do it right in the first place, when will you get the time/$ to fix it?"
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22-08-2024, 10:31
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#184
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2020
Location: SoCal
Boat: 35' Alden Design Cutter
Posts: 682
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Re: C&N managed yacht sinks off Sicily, 7 missing
I know less than nothing about yachts this size, but if I were hazarding a guess, then maybe a perfect combination of factors, including the wind, keel height, "World's tallest mast," and extreme torsional forces to perhaps cause massive deck/hull structure failure.
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22-08-2024, 11:24
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#185
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2021
Posts: 706
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Re: C&N managed yacht sinks off Sicily, 7 missing
Quote:
Originally Posted by GordMay
In a tornadic watertspout, the visible funnel is NOT water, pulled up from the sea, but IS cumulus clouds, pulled down, from the sky.
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agreed, but at the sea surface, with low pressure and high wind speeds there is an awful lot of water in the air within a few meters of the sea surface. Have not had one go over me myself, but have seen things filled with water afterward.
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22-08-2024, 13:02
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#186
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Moderator
Join Date: May 2014
Boat: Shuttleworth Advantage
Posts: 2,812
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Re: C&N managed yacht sinks off Sicily, 7 missing
Quote:
Originally Posted by Invictus69
This assumes the stern garage is already 1m underwater. I cannot see a situation for that on a boat at anchor that has no other subsurface water intake. We saw Bayesian lying still on CCTV which suggests that the blow came fast and the sea state was relatively calm as other boats were anchored as well.
I am not disputing the calculation, just saying that we need more insights as to what happened. In practical terms, given the weather situation, I assume the stern garage was closed for overnight safety precaution (including from intruders).
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Just to demonstrate that rapid sinking is not against the laws of physics.
If the garage was in fact not sealed and the boat was rolled to 90° then the opening may well have been 1 m below the surface. While crew were preparing to abandon ship, readying the life raft or even deploying the lifting keel the chances of doors being left open is high, they wouldn't necessarily expected a knock down.
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22-08-2024, 14:02
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#187
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2014
Posts: 2,048
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Re: C&N managed yacht sinks off Sicily, 7 missing
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tupaia
Just to demonstrate that rapid sinking is not against the laws of physics.
If the garage was in fact not sealed and the boat was rolled to 90° then the opening may well have been 1 m below the surface. While crew were preparing to abandon ship, readying the life raft or even deploying the lifting keel the chances of doors being left open is high, they wouldn't necessarily expected a knock down.
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Ran across an article where the builder is pointing fingers at the Captain...
What was interesting is that the article had a deck plan of the ship and some things stood out.
There appear to be a stern garage as well as a smaller one on the port side aft. If either one of them opened, just a little, during the knock down, much less a capsize, that is a huge amount of water.
One the main deck, the ship has two big cockpits, one huge one forward of the superstructure and a smaller one, still large, aft. Then there is what looks like a large cockpit on what looks to be a fly bridge. These three areas could have allowed for massive down flooding if the ship was knocked down, much less capsized.
The ship has a large engine room and obviously needs air intakes and exhaust. From some pictures, it really is hard to tell, there are structures that could be air vents/exhaust port and starboard and would be over the ER. The structures look to be 5-6 feet tall and 3-4 feet square. I quickly looked at multiple images and can't make out what they are or if they are there all of the time. Even if these structures are not air ventilation, the air intakes and exhaust have to be somewhere on the aft part of the ship. Depending on their design they could/would have down flooded.
I read another article where a naval architect said the ship could float with two compartments flooded. It was not clear how well the architect knew about the ship's design but what he says seems reasonable. Flip side, if the ship was knocked down long enough, there seems to be multiple possible down flooding points, and if she capsized even more so. One fact that is for sure, is she did sink, and sink fast, so multiple compartments did flood.
Crew quarters where in the forward part of the vessel with the owners and guest cabins amidships. Given that most of the victims were not crew, that says the crew either was out and about working on the vessel as the storm hit or they were able to get out of the forward part of the ship. From the design, I could see down flooding making it very hard to get out of the owner and guest cabins and up to the deck.
The divers are not getting enough credit for what they have done retrieving the bodies. Amazing work.
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22-08-2024, 14:19
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#188
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2017
Location: NE Ohio
Boat: Hunter 33.5'
Posts: 30
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Re: C&N managed yacht sinks off Sicily, 7 missing
i suspect that the crew was not anticipating such severe weather, let alone a knock-down. That would lead to the following conclusions for me:
1. the crew had NOT sounded any alarms to notify the sleeping guests of imminent need for evacuation. that explains why some guests were trapped still in their cabins.
2. the crew's focus was to secure anything on deck from blowing over/off with no intention of readying life boats.
3. while doing the above, the presumably large "companionway" doors were left open to facilitate the process of moving in/out of the protected cabin
4. when the knockdown happened, the flooding gushed through these openings as suggested by several posts
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22-08-2024, 14:56
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#189
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Senior Cruiser

Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Thunder Bay, Ontario - 48-29N x 89-20W
Boat: (Cruiser Living On Dirt)
Posts: 51,843
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Re: C&N managed yacht sinks off Sicily, 7 missing
Despite its name, a waterspout is not filled with water, from the ocean or lake.
And, contrary to popular opinion, a waterspout does not “suck up” water to great heights, though it may lift the water level, up to a metre, or so, at its point of contact with the surface.
A tornadic waterspout descends from a cumulus supercell thunderstorm cloud, with rotating updraughts.
Water spouts certainly constitute a threat to small craft; however, there are few [if any] authentic cases, of large ships being destroyed, by a spout.
Boaters are much more likely to encounter fair weather waterspouts. Fair weather waterspouts form from the surface of the water upward, in association with the updraft of a rapidly growing cumuliform cloud. Although far less powerful than their tornadic cousins, winds associated with fair weather waterspouts are capable of reaching sixty knots or more, and have a long history of capsizing small boats, shredding sails, and damaging equipment.
Both tornadic, and fair-weather waterspouts, require high levels of humidity, and a relatively warm water temperature, compared to the overlying air.
A swirling ring of sea spray, called a cascade, forms, around the light and dark bands, spiraling out from the vortex [dark spot]. When the waterspout is at its most intense stage, it appears to have a hollow funnel, and may be surrounded by a vapour spray vortex.
__________________
Gord May
"If you didn't have the time or money to do it right in the first place, when will you get the time/$ to fix it?"
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22-08-2024, 19:41
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#190
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2012
Location: New York City
Boat: none yet :(
Posts: 147
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Re: C&N managed yacht sinks off Sicily, 7 missing
Summary of the interview with the CEO Italian Sea Group (owner of Perini Navi) and some new details about the vessel.
Confirmation that closing stern garage and other major openings overnight is a standard procedure (which may have not been followed).
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22-08-2024, 20:03
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#191
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2014
Location: Chesapeake
Boat: Catalina 22 Sport
Posts: 1,288
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Re: C&N managed yacht sinks off Sicily, 7 missing
Quote:
Originally Posted by Iron E
I know less than nothing about yachts this size, but if I were hazarding a guess, then maybe a perfect combination of factors, including the wind, keel height, "World's tallest mast," and extreme torsional forces to perhaps cause massive deck/hull structure failure.
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Several earlier posts have cited information from the divers that the hull was intact and the mast attached.
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22-08-2024, 21:15
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#192
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2014
Posts: 3,229
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Re: C&N managed yacht sinks off Sicily, 7 missing
Read the statement by Perini's CEO. Even assuming self-serving nature of it, it makes a lot of sense. Basically putting the blame on the crew for a number of mistakes made. The biggest was not giving the weather forecasts its due respect. He asks the question - how come none of the fishing boats were out that night? Perhaps Bayesian's captain was not running as tight of a ship as was required under the circumstances. Who knows.
But the fact is, unless it was an outside bad act, this sinking was totally preventable in those circumstances. As was Titanic's in its time. By preventable I mean not after knockdown but that the ship shouldn't have been put in that situation in the first place. Should've followed the fishermen's approach to weather that night - stayed in port.
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22-08-2024, 21:29
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#193
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Moderator
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: Australia
Posts: 3,942
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Re: C&N managed yacht sinks off Sicily, 7 missing
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bowdrie
Lee Jerry, Ok perhaps I could have worded things more "properly".
However, I was on board a 65' schooner while the CG oversaw the inclining experiment, (I got to be a "gofer" moving empty barrels that were to be filled with water,) the boat had to have it to get certified to carry passengers.
"Form stability"? A log has almost none, a raft could have quite a bit.
Look at the old "cutters", (a class to fit a rule,) from 100 years ago, a 40' boat with 6' of beam and almost vertical topsides.
Virtually all stability came from massive ballast hung far down, a person stepping aboard would easily make them heel several degrees, but the further over they went the stiffer they became, (little form stability).
Breaking loose machinery?
As I said, perhaps "acceleration", not a static or slow-moving load.
Someone mentioned Ron Holland, (besides me alluding to him,) yeah, Ok, perhaps a talented designer, but he's always been known as a "pushing the edge" race boat/go fast designer.
Personally, I can't imagine going to him for a conservative world "cruising" boat, different strokes/different folks.
Edit: when I stepped aboard a 12 meter, (~65% ballast/disp. ratio,) I felt it move, when I stepped aboard the 65' schooner, (~30%,) I felt no movement, of course getting on a 95' ketch, (unknown ratio,) was like stepping on a concrete slab. lol.
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I did the same job during the stability testing on a cargo ship, lifting the complement of 2 tonne concrete blocks with the ships cranes. Very long and interesting process to be involved in. The previous day the class surveyor and his assistant did a lot of measuring on deck to give me landing points for each block and they suspended a plumb bob immersed in a deep tray of water with a 2 metre long ruler fixed to the tray. The plumb bob was suspended from the hatch cover 40 feet above and centred with all the holds empty and crane booms secured in the cradles. After each placement of the blocks , re parking of the booms and deck crew standing on their designated painted X the surveyor measured the plumb bob deflection and then we’d get to work and shift the blocks to the next marked position….over and over again till he finished the measuring.
The naval architect in the Esysman video suggested that the now sunken yacht had a 200 tonne centreboard keel, not the 50 tonne one I read about earlier, that roughly equates to a pair of the second largest bulldozers Cat makes …..sitting just under the deckhead. The same naval architect supports your statement about the relationship between ballast and angle of heel.
Those old racing yachts were called “planks on edge”.
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22-08-2024, 22:28
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#194
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Moderator
Join Date: May 2008
Location: cruising SW Pacific
Boat: Jon Sayer 1-off 46 ft fract rig sloop strip plank in W Red Cedar
Posts: 21,571
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Re: C&N managed yacht sinks off Sicily, 7 missing
^^^^
200 tonne lifting keel on a vessel with a displacement of ~450 tonne? That does not seem credible to me.
And for those expressing disbelief that the keel was not always down when out of harbor... did you not read the several posts from folks with experience in similar vessels saying that the keel, when down, made loud and annoying noises? I could easily believe that the owner requested that it be raised at anchor so as to not disturb his guests (and the lord of the land)? And without personal experience, I suspect that lowering the keel isn't a simple or rapid evolution, something to be done quickly as the wx deteriorated. Still a serious error for the skip, but understandable: it's always difficult to say no to the the boss, even when he is wrong!
The inquiry will be most interesting, a sad ending to this unfortunate event.
Jim
__________________
Jim and Ann s/v Insatiable II, lying Port Cygnet Tasmania once again.
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23-08-2024, 00:34
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#195
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Moderator
Join Date: May 2014
Boat: Shuttleworth Advantage
Posts: 2,812
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Re: C&N managed yacht sinks off Sicily, 7 missing
Quote:
Originally Posted by Island Time O25
Should've followed the fishermen's approach to weather that night - stayed in port.
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I think this is maybe a bit harsh, these type vessels are to big to fit into many ports. not say that other precautions for for bad weather should have been followed.
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