C&N managed yacht sinks off Sicily, 7 missing

[Mickeyrouse]

Please, please, let’s not let facts intrude on a good conspiracy. How’s this:
“HP wins big fraud case; perpetrator beats related criminal rap. Revenge killers wipe out conspirators two days apart. Banker who financed the scam offed as warning.”
Personally I think any vessel that’s sailed the world safely for 15 years isn’t likely to have design flaws. When Bayesian is raised all sorts of things will have been found to be left open: ports, hatches, vents, doors- you name it. I have no problem imagining that with a knockdown and enough ports open, she’d sink like a stone, rig intact. No time for may-day, steering into the wind, launching rafts or anything else.

[HairTwiddler]

May I just offer one thought re "doors were left open". I've never been on a mega yacht but given we think that the saloon deck doors were huge (and made from 3cm thick glass) could it possible that yes the doors were shut but that someone opened a door to enter or exit and for whatever reason the door wasn't secured behind them? A relatable scenario much different to "the doors were open".

[El Pinguino]

Originally Posted by HairTwiddler

May I just offer one thought re "doors were left open". I've never been on a mega yacht but given we think that the saloon deck doors were huge (and made from 3cm thick glass) could it possible that yes the doors were shut but that someone opened a door to enter or exit and for whatever reason the door wasn't secured behind them? A relatable scenario much different to "the doors were open".

Maybe opened by the 15 people who were about to abandon ship and left open for them as was following them?
I doubt they thought leaving the doors to the aft or frd entertainment areas open was going to sink her.

[boatman61]

Yet like Harland and Wolf once claimed, the CEO defiantly insists yachts like Bayesien are 'Unsinkable'..
The ultimate in denying reality..

[GordMay]

Five Bodies Recovered:
On Wednesday four bodies were recovered, from the wreck of the “Bayesian”.
A fifth [discovered] body remained in the sailboat, but was recovered Thursday morning.
The whereabouts of the sixth missing person* remain unknown.
The body of the yacht’s cook, Recaldo Thomas, who held Canadian and Antiguan citizenship, was recovered earlier, from the water.

See Edit: The identities, of the recovered bodies, have not been confirmed, by authorities, despite local and international media reporting, that some had been identified, including Mike Lynch, and his 18-year-old daughter Hannah, who were believed to be among the six people. whose bodies have been recovered.

* Mike Lynch and his daughter Hannah, Morgan Stanley International chair Jonathan Bloomer; his wife, Judy Bloomer; Chris Morvillo, a lawyer with Clifford Chance; and his wife, Neda Morvillo.

The ship's captain, 51-year-old New Zealand national, James Cutfileld, was questioned for two hours, by prosecutors, on Thursday, according to Italian media.

EDIT:

Italian coastguard identifies five victims

Originally Posted by Sky News

“... British tech entrepreneur Mike Lynch has been confirmed as among the dead after a superyacht sank off Sicily this week.

The Italian coastguard also said the bodies of Morgan Stanley chairman Jonathan Bloomer and US lawyer Chris Morvillo had been recovered, along with their wives, Judy Bloomer and Neda Morvillo.

Mr Lynch's 18-year-old daughter Hannah remains missing ...”

➥ https://news.sky.com/story/bodies-re...ities-13199804

➥ https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/captain-of-boat-that-rescued-bayesian-survivors-details-mega-yacht-sinking-within-two-minutes/ar-AA1peJwq?ocid=BingHp01&pc=YA01&cvid=2cd88d1d475f4b b7f4cc8270c1e70901&ei=14

[Invictus69]

Sinking in 2 minutes (msn link from The Independent above) defies all laws of physics for a yacht of this size unless, the bottom is blown up in a sabotage during a storm. That's the 'conspiracy' part.

There is a consensus among numerous commentators that such quick sinking at anchor for a yacht of such size is very unusual and difficult to explain absent all circumstantial evidence.

Technical analysis aside and probably unlikely, there is still a non-zero chance of some foul play though.


Not to pollute this thread with links but for 'conspiracy'-curious, X (Twitter) has lots of those under #Bayesian tag.

[nigel1]

Originally Posted by lestersails

Two things* I don't understand.
1. The Italian authorities referred several times to the difficulty of the rescue because of the obstruction of displaced furniture (I get that) and wiring (I don't get that). So what forces are at play here that would cause substantial amounts of wiring to be all over the place, given that the hull is said to be intact? Is it in fact the furniture flying around that busts into wall panels and then disgorges the underlying wiring?
2. Several commenters have talked about the Captain needing to keep the bow of the boat into the wind. Given the LOA of Bayesian and the diameter of a waterspout (this source https://oceantoday.noaa.gov/waterspouts/ says "The size of all waterspouts can range from just a few feet, to several hundred feet wide.") I cannot understand how you could possibly keep the bow into the wind of a vortex, even at the upper limit of that size. With a direct hit, you would likely have the wind directions 180 degrees different at the bow and the stern of a boat like that. Or if it passed very close by, the wind directional shift would be pretty huge, right? And then there is the minor issue that a 'yacht' of that LOA is more akin to a ship than it is to most sailboats. I would not think a ship like that turns quickly, .



*Actually, there are a lot more than two things I don't understand, but they don't relate to the sinking of Bayesian.

Reference to the wiring, that may be something lost in translation, could well be meaning the standing and running rigging.

[wyb2]

Quotes from a NYT article

“It drives me insane,” said Giovanni Costantino, the chief executive of the Italian Sea Group, which in 2022 bought the company, Perini, that made the Bayesian.
…
Mr. Costantino, the boat executive, said the yacht had been specifically designed for having a tall mast — the second-tallest aluminum mast in the world. He said the Bayesian was an extremely safe and secure boat that could list even to 75 degrees without capsizing.


May have been an off-the -cuff statement, but interesting he said 75, not 90.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/22/w...hare&sgrp=c-cb

[Statistical]

Originally Posted by wyb2

Quotes from a NYT article

“It drives me insane,” said Giovanni Costantino, the chief executive of the Italian Sea Group, which in 2022 bought the company, Perini, that made the Bayesian.
…
Mr. Costantino, the boat executive, said the yacht had been specifically designed for having a tall mast — the second-tallest aluminum mast in the world. He said the Bayesian was an extremely safe and secure boat that could list even to 75 degrees without capsizing.


May have been an off-the -cuff statement, but interesting he said 75, not 90.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/22/w...hare&sgrp=c-cb

Yeah 75 (or even 90) degrees as angle of vanishing stability is not what I would consider safe & secure.

CE rated yachts for us mere mortals require at least an AVS of 100 degrees for Class A (ocean) yachts and up to 122 degrees for lighter ones. Many respected "blue water" designs have an even higher AVS sometimes as much as 140 degrees.



Same thing with downflooding angles. Speculation in the thread is she would have downflooding even at 20 degree heel. CE requires at least 40 degrees.

A boat which downfloods at 20 degrees and will sink rapidly at 75 degrees is not what I would consider safe but I will never have the kind of money to buy something like this anyways.

[argonauta1]

I'll add my two bits worth: The event took place at around 0400 L with the vessel at anchor at a time when most people are asleep. So the crew (skipper etc) would have likely done a weather watch but decided no threat. Could the radar have been set for a proximity alarm? No idea but I know our radar painted T Storms really well. Anyway, we know the onset was sudden.
For a sailing vessel to capsize and sink is curious as they by the nature of the design have very positive vertical stability thus in the event of a knock down recovery is automatic unless buoyancy is lost. That can happen should the vessel be swamped with hatches open'; companionway open etc which had to be the case in this incident.

[Tupaia]

Originally Posted by Invictus69

Sinking in 2 minutes (msn link from The Independent above) defies all laws of physics for a yacht of this size unless, the bottom is blown up in a sabotage during a storm. That's the 'conspiracy' part.

There is a consensus among numerous commentators that such quick sinking at anchor for a yacht of such size is very unusual and difficult to explain absent all circumstantial evidence.

Technical analysis aside and probably unlikely, there is still a non-zero chance of some foul play though.


Not to pollute this thread with links but for 'conspiracy'-curious, X (Twitter) has lots of those under #Bayesian tag.

E&OE disclaimer.



"Estimating" the displacement of 450 tonnes and a partially open stern garage approximately 2 m². Using Torricelli’s law to establish the flow rate at 1 meter depth.


t=V vol displaced/Q​ flow rate​= 450m³/8.86m³/s​≈51seconds


Assuming there was some bulkhead doors but ignoring any other outside door openings a sinking time of 2 mins is more than possible.


Example; an intrinsically negatively buoyant 40ft yacht with displacement of 8 tonne with a 6 in diameter hole 1 meter below the waterline would take about 100 seconds to sink.

[nigel1]

From what one crew member has reportedly said, the Bayesian sank within 12 minutes.
Prior to the sinking, the crew were on deck securing loose items. I imagine, that with the forecasted winds, she could well have been heeled over to 20 degrees, and that could well be expected for this boat in those wind speeds.
Could it be possible that the crew may have opened the doors to the lounge area in order to throw in the loose deck loungers, thats one explanation for the doors to have been opened.


What no one was expecting was a water spout with winds in excess of 100 knots, and that would have knocked her down.


One survivor said she got out of bed when the Bayesian first started to heel, but she said she had experienced this before, and was going to go up on deck to see what was happening. Somewhere between leaving her cabin and reaching the main deck, the boat was knocked down.


The video showing a super yacht in New Zealand being knocked down shows just how fast it went over to nearly 90 degrees, and that was with carbon fibre masts.


I would think that at this point, crew and passengers on deck may well have been thrown overboard, and if not, hanging on to something for dear life.

And on her beams end, water would have flooded in at a tremondous rate.


Even if the doors to the deck had been closed, a good chance of something loose on deck being picked up by the wind and hurled into them.


Its all conjecture at this point, but with most of the crew having survived, the accident investigation team should be able to reach some decent conclusions fairly soon, and I imagine a preliminary report will be published as soon as possible so as to try and prevent this happening in the future.

[PippaB]

There has been speculation at least that Bayesian was hit by or very close to a tornadic waterspout. It is not a difficult scenario to imagine literally tons of water landing on her from above at the same time as the knockdown, potentially contributing to a slower than calculated righting.

[Invictus69]

Originally Posted by Tupaia

E&OE disclaimer.

"Estimating" the displacement of 450 tonnes and a partially open stern garage approximately 2 m². Using Torricelli’s law to establish the flow rate at 1 meter depth.

This assumes the stern garage is already 1m underwater. I cannot see a situation for that on a boat at anchor that has no other subsurface water intake. We saw Bayesian lying still on CCTV which suggests that the blow came fast and the sea state was relatively calm as other boats were anchored as well.


I am not disputing the calculation, just saying that we need more insights as to what happened. In practical terms, given the weather situation, I assume the stern garage was closed for overnight safety precaution (including from intruders).

[smacksman]

Comments earlier in the thread about 'motoring into wind while at anchor'
1. I have been in 60 knot squalls at anchor and motoring into the wind is easy.
2. I have been in a hurricane and the change in wind direction is slow. So motoring into the wind is easy.

3. I have dropped sails before a waterspout, battened down, and let it wash over me. The wind shear is awesome and change in direction rapid. There is little possibility in motoring into the wind. Without sails up it didn't damage the mast but heeled us over briefly, then on the nose, then a knock down on the other beam, then up our chuff. All within minutes.