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Old 21-08-2024, 13:51   #151
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Re: C&N managed yacht sinks off Sicily, 7 missing

If the boat was anchored...one would assume that the boat would lie bow to wind, unless of course, the anchor broke loose and the bow veered off.

Many questions...few answers...
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Old 21-08-2024, 15:26   #152
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Re: C&N managed yacht sinks off Sicily, 7 missing

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Originally Posted by MicHughV View Post
If the boat was anchored...one would assume that the boat would lie bow to wind, unless of course, the anchor broke loose and the bow veered off.

Many questions...few answers...
1. The boat was anchored as shownin the AIS track swinging around but then "broke away" speeding up to 2.5 kn at about 4.00 am when the AIS stopped. Presumable when electronics were flooded.
2. No Mayday!!!
3. Crew managed to launch a 12 man life raft and get 15 people into it. These were rescued by the crew of the Sir Robert Baden Powell who had seen a red flare. Probably launched from the life raft.
4. Captain and most of the crew escaped leaving 6 souls on board.
Very sad to say the least. Big investigation and numerous law suits to follow.
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Old 21-08-2024, 15:28   #153
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Re: C&N managed yacht sinks off Sicily, 7 missing

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Originally Posted by MicHughV View Post
If the boat was anchored...one would assume that the boat would lie bow to wind, unless of course, the anchor broke loose and the bow veered off.

Many questions...few answers...
She dragged, Nigel1 at post 69 posted the attached Mtraffic pic.
You can see her arrive from the east, drop anchor, drop back and describe a small arc as she sits at at anchor to a wind out of the west. Then she drags to the south about two cable before signal lost.
I mentioned in a previous post how her bow could pay off when dragging due to all the windage of mast and three furling headsails frd of midships thus putting her beam on to the wind.

If you want to know her approximate downflooding angle just take her half beam ( about 5.7 metres) and her freeboard ( approx 2 metres ) and look up the tangent of freeboard divided by half beam. Sorry I'm to lazy to get up off the couch to do it myself.

The way the aft entertainment area extends almost right up to the deck edge can be seen in posts #18 & #43.
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Old 21-08-2024, 15:59   #154
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Re: C&N managed yacht sinks off Sicily, 7 missing

20 degrees, which sounds quite low for a sailboat?!
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Old 21-08-2024, 16:24   #155
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Re: C&N managed yacht sinks off Sicily, 7 missing

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Originally Posted by Mrkva View Post
20 degrees, which sounds quite low for a sailboat?!
Indeed. Getting knocked down 20 degrees and then the vessel is doomed and seven people die doesn't seem acceptable to me.

As I said in the start of the thread the super (now mega) yacht industry is ying and yang. Right after a disaster the designs become conservative and safe and overtime they get more and more aggressive until eventually another disaster happens and the cycle repeats.

Of course this assumes the owner didn't modify the design in such a way that compromised it further. The investigating will be interesting.
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Old 21-08-2024, 17:18   #156
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Re: C&N managed yacht sinks off Sicily, 7 missing

I'm thinking some of us are under-valuing the factors of scale in this event. El Ping mentioned it early on. Here are some of the numbers involved:

Length overall = 55.99m (~183 ft);

Mast height = 75m (~240 ft.); length of mast base = 5 ft., spreaders with chords like airplane wings;

Displacement = ~470 tons, with a draft of 3.8 m, keel up.

Force = mass x acceleration Wind strength goes up as the square of the speed.

The Bayesian was heavy, we don't know the weight of her lifting keel, but in the up position, it would not offer much grip on the water compared to the huge lever arm of the mast and the forces offered by wind resistance.

My guess as to what happened is that the heavy squall hit suddenly, possibly the crew had warned the skipper (saw it coming or saw it on radar), skipper fired up engine(s), ordering crew to get people on deck if possible, and he tried to keep the vessel head to wind--her only real chance of survival. The force of the wind caused the bow to blow down, despite those efforts, and the boat heeled over, and the spreader shape may have accelerated the roll, the guest area filled up as El Ping said, down flooded, and she'd have sunk pretty fast.

Rest in peace, fellow sailors. Condolences to families and loved ones.

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Old 21-08-2024, 17:38   #157
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Re: C&N managed yacht sinks off Sicily, 7 missing

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Originally Posted by JPA Cate View Post
..

My guess as to what happened is that the heavy squall hit suddenly, ...

Rest in peace, fellow sailors. Condolences to families and loved ones.

Ann
I read an interview today from the Dutch/German sailor that rescued the survivors.
Quote:
“We had been prepared a bit and it started blowing around 4 in the morning. They were hurricane-force winds of 12 Beaufort,”

Some time during the storm a waterspout, or tornado, formed, Börner said. “It was very strong and intense. We had trouble keeping the ship on an even keel, with the anchor in place and the motor running. The yacht was just behind us and we kept an eye on it. At one point it disappeared,” he said.
That sounds like they were hit with hurricane winds and then the waterspout.

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Old 21-08-2024, 18:41   #158
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Re: C&N managed yacht sinks off Sicily, 7 missing

Two things* I don't understand.
1. The Italian authorities referred several times to the difficulty of the rescue because of the obstruction of displaced furniture (I get that) and wiring (I don't get that). So what forces are at play here that would cause substantial amounts of wiring to be all over the place, given that the hull is said to be intact? Is it in fact the furniture flying around that busts into wall panels and then disgorges the underlying wiring?
2. Several commenters have talked about the Captain needing to keep the bow of the boat into the wind. Given the LOA of Bayesian and the diameter of a waterspout (this source https://oceantoday.noaa.gov/waterspouts/ says "The size of all waterspouts can range from just a few feet, to several hundred feet wide.") I cannot understand how you could possibly keep the bow into the wind of a vortex, even at the upper limit of that size. With a direct hit, you would likely have the wind directions 180 degrees different at the bow and the stern of a boat like that. Or if it passed very close by, the wind directional shift would be pretty huge, right? And then there is the minor issue that a 'yacht' of that LOA is more akin to a ship than it is to most sailboats. I would not think a ship like that turns quickly, .



*Actually, there are a lot more than two things I don't understand, but they don't relate to the sinking of Bayesian.
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Old 21-08-2024, 20:06   #159
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Re: C&N managed yacht sinks off Sicily, 7 missing

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Originally Posted by SailingHarmonie View Post
This kind of thing really brings out the worst in the rumor-mongers on here who can’t stop commenting on stuff they don’t know crap about.

Porthole open? Really? On a superyacht on a hot night? In the rain?

Now I know most sailors don’t come from places where they have a lot of experiences with tornados, so it a bit more forgivable. But a powerful tornado will have winds of 200+ knots. Enough to blow a 50 ton rail car off its tracks. For someone to even suggest that a boat being laid on its side in 200 knots hints at a design flaw…well…

How about those catamarans that literally go flying through the air in a hurricane? Is that a design flaw indicative of poor stability?

Sometimes nature presents us with an irresistible force.

Storms like this in the Med can arise very quickly, and as in this case be far more violent than expected. The idea that every boat at anchor should be rigged to survive a knockdown from a tornado all the time is just not practical. I know yours is not.

The idea that a yacht of this size could transition from routine bad weather prep to fully rigged for a tornado in the time available isn’t realistic.
Right on. I couldn't agree more, especially with the opening line.

My reaction to this entire thread is

The idea that Ron Holland doesn't know how to design a (super)yacht and Perini Navi build them is just asinine.


(Which isn't to say any of them - RH, PN or the yachts - are perfect or couldn't have been made with other choices, but they're basically as good as it gets.)
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Old 21-08-2024, 20:28   #160
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Re: C&N managed yacht sinks off Sicily, 7 missing

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Originally Posted by Bowdrie View Post
Not so strange.
With keel lifted now it almost all about form stability.
I've said before, there's no such thing as "form stability." The hull form provides half of what we call stability. But you need both halves.

Quote:
Interestingly, when the CG does an inclining experiment, ...
The USCG doesn't do inclining experiments, industry does (i.e. shipyards). They probably don't even observe too many anymore, as they've largely pawned that off onto ABS.

Quote:
...they are measuring form stability/GM at smaller angles of heel.
Yes, an incline measures GM, but only has a necessary step to get to the goal of determining the VCG (to go along with the displacement and LCG previously determined by the deadweight survey).

(IIRC, there are a small percentage of tests that do stop with just the GM, maybe the Alaskan fishing vessels...)

Quote:
The amount of ballast, and how deep it's hung, contributes little righting moment at small angles of heel, it's mostly contributing to the roll period.
This is patently false. The ballast (assuming fixed during the event) determines the VCG, which in turn determines the GM. In other words, it is essential to stability at small angles of heel.

Quote:
It will be interesting to learn if rapid acceleration from upright to that 20 degrees of heel that the crew spoke of caused any heavy machinery to come adrift and fall to leeward.
I'm pretty sure the equipment on a sailboat can withstand 20deg heel (at any rate) without breaking loose. Most of it is designed to operate at that angle.


Sorry mate, but this post was not your best effort.
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Old 21-08-2024, 20:33   #161
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Re: C&N managed yacht sinks off Sicily, 7 missing

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Originally Posted by Lee Jerry View Post
My reaction to this entire thread is
There is great deal of speculation at the moment.

However, I think it reasonable to consider why this large yacht rapidly sank at anchor, unfortunately with the death of several people. The conditions were extreme, but not dissimilar to conditions that many of us have experienced.

I am sure there are lessons to be learnt. These observations may translate to practical advice that can be applied to our sized vessels.
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Old 21-08-2024, 20:51   #162
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Re: C&N managed yacht sinks off Sicily, 7 missing

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There is great deal of speculation at the moment.

However, I think it reasonable to consider why this large yacht sank at anchor, unfortunately with the death of several people. The conditions were extreme, but not dissimilar to conditions that many of us have experienced.

I am sure there are lessons to be learnt. These observations may translate to practical advice that can be applied to our sized vessels.
I agree, except maybe for the highlighted bit. Because we don't know what conditions the Bayesian saw. Was it 75 kt? 100 kt? 150 kt? More?

We may learn something eventually, but probably not from speculation on events we know little about.




And then there are those who comment without reading the thread...
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Old 21-08-2024, 21:24   #163
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Re: C&N managed yacht sinks off Sicily, 7 missing

I think the criticism about the quality of this thread or lack thereof is misplaced. It is obviously of the highest importance to respect those who lost their lives and my heart goes out to them, the survivors and next of kin. Unreservedly, regardless of fault, etc, etc. I, and I suspect all of us, have made mistakes.

But technically, as far as I am concerned, anything goes. These waters are currently my home waters and any theory and opinion I would be happy to hear. Here, on CF, which has a decent collection of experienced mariners and not on eg the Daily Mail ("the strong wind may have caused the yacht to pitch and loose its balance" or words and nonsense to that effect). This helps me form a picture of what might have happened and what I might undertake if faced with a potentially similar threat on my much smaller boat.

So yes, it's all speculation etc, but I find quite a few of the contributions here valuable for my own knowledge and yes, I really am quite capable of reading this thread critically. And finally.... learning new things from the safety of the keyboard.
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Old 21-08-2024, 22:18   #164
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Re: C&N managed yacht sinks off Sicily, 7 missing

Eyeballing the videos it looks like she could have handled 20 degrees without endangering the boat.
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Old 21-08-2024, 23:02   #165
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Re: C&N managed yacht sinks off Sicily, 7 missing

Lee Jerry, Ok perhaps I could have worded things more "properly".
However, I was on board a 65' schooner while the CG oversaw the inclining experiment, (I got to be a "gofer" moving empty barrels that were to be filled with water,) the boat had to have it to get certified to carry passengers.
"Form stability"? A log has almost none, a raft could have quite a bit.
Look at the old "cutters", (a class to fit a rule,) from 100 years ago, a 40' boat with 6' of beam and almost vertical topsides.
Virtually all stability came from massive ballast hung far down, a person stepping aboard would easily make them heel several degrees, but the further over they went the stiffer they became, (little form stability).
Breaking loose machinery?
As I said, perhaps "acceleration", not a static or slow-moving load.
Someone mentioned Ron Holland, (besides me alluding to him,) yeah, Ok, perhaps a talented designer, but he's always been known as a "pushing the edge" race boat/go fast designer.
Personally, I can't imagine going to him for a conservative world "cruising" boat, different strokes/different folks.
Edit: when I stepped aboard a 12 meter, (~65% ballast/disp. ratio,) I felt it move, when I stepped aboard the 65' schooner, (~30%,) I felt no movement, of course getting on a 95' ketch, (unknown ratio,) was like stepping on a concrete slab. lol.
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