Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC)

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by derfy

...
Might I suggest you enhance this by suggesting what I am missing ...

We all know, that the world is run by some global elite [Lizard People, the Chinese, the Jews, the World Economic Forum, the Davos crowd, Intellectuals, etc], that is secretly using climate change, as an excuse, to take over the world, in the Great Reset..

In addition to “Big Climate, Big Food, Big Pharma, and Big War”: you might have missed:
Big Government, Big Money/Capitalism, Big Tech, Big Science, Big Environmental NGOs, Big Media, and even Big Oil*, as co-conspirators, in the culture war [global plot] driving the infodemic of climate disinformation, and hoaxes, all perpetuated by [we] extremist climate alarmists.

* Yes, even Big Oil is in on the hoax.
In February 2020, BP [for instance] announced plans to become a net zero emissions company, by 2050, or sooner, and to “help the world get to net zero”.
➥ https://www.theguardian.com/environm...-what-it-means

And the major fossil-fuel firms [ExxonMobil Corporation, Chevron
Corporation, Shell USA Inc., BP America Inc., & the American Petroleum Institute] have all pledged support for international climate efforts.
➥ https://www.budget.senate.gov/imo/me...el_report1.pdf

Originally Posted by

“... Documents demonstrate for the first time that fossil fuel companies internally do not dispute that they have understood since at least the 1960s that burning fossil fuels causes climate change ...”

[Baronkrak]

Originally Posted by Lewis Harry

...
This latest climate change fuss is political, not scientific.
anyway, little to do about boats.

Really?
https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais...oogle_vignette

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by derfy

...
Exactly when is that CO2-induced climatic cataclysm coming? I missed the predicted date...conveniently out there over the horizon of our lifetimes?

Climate tipping points are events that, if triggered, could set in motion a, self-perpetuating cycle, of environmental collapse. Tipping points occur when lots of small changes in climate, build up to create a sudden, large change.

A study [1], published in Science Advances, reveals that uncertainties are currently too large to accurately predict exact tipping times for critical Earth system components like the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), polar ice sheets, or tropical rainforests.

First, predictions rely on assumptions, regarding the underlying physical mechanisms, as well as regarding future human actions, to extrapolate past data, into the future. These assumptions can be overly simplistic, and lead to significant errors.
Second, long-term, direct observations of the climate system are rare, and the Earth system components in question may not be suitably represented, by the data.
Third, historical climate data is incomplete.

To illustrate their findings, the authors examined the AMOC.
Previous predictions, from historical data, suggested a collapse could occur between 2025 and 2095. However, the new study revealed that the uncertainties are so large that these predictions are not reliable.
Using different fingerprints, and data sets, predicted tipping times, for the AMOC, ranged from 2050, to 8065, even if the underlying mechanistic assumptions were true.
Knowing that the AMOC might tip, somewhere within a 6,000-year window, isn't practically useful, and this large range highlights the complexity, and uncertainty, involved in such predictions.

The researchers conclude that while the idea of predicting climate tipping points is appealing, the reality is fraught with uncertainties. The current methods and data are not up to the task.

More about:
“Not the day after tomorrow: Why we can't predict the timing of climate tipping points” ~ by Technical University Munich
➥ https://phys.org/news/2024-08-day-tomorrow-climate.html

[1] “Uncertainties too large to predict tipping times of major Earth system components from historical data” ~ by Maya Ben-Yami et al
➥ https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adl4841

That’s why scientists, estimating various tipping points, alway give a range of plausible hypothetical outcomes [and sometime dates], depending upon differing scenarios, based on a set of key driving forces.
For example, scenario-driven climate policy analysis relies on comparing a projection, without policy intervention [typically called baseline scenario] with a pathway towards a desired goal [e.g., the 1.5°C or 2°C goal). Scenarios are hence fundamentally context dependent. Understanding a single scenario requires understanding the set of scenarios, it is embedded in.
“The NGFS climate scenarios provide a window into different plausible futures”
➥ https://www.ngfs.net/ngfs-scenarios-portal/


***


Our world is 1.2°C [2.2°F] hotter, than it was at the dawn of the second Industrial Revolution. And, without a rapid decrease in greenhouse gas emissions, the odds of exceeding the critical 1.5°C [2.7°F] threshold, within the next five years, are roughly 50/50.

A 2022 study [2] suggests that the consequences of crossing those limits could be more severe than previously thought — including the irreversible breakdown of foundational Earth systems.

A newer, 2024 study [3] focused on four potential tipping points:
- the rapid and irreversible melting of ice sheets in Greenland,
- and Antarctica,
- the transformation of the Amazon rainforest, into a dry savanna,
- and the collapse of a critical system of Atlantic Ocean currents.
Each of these ecosystems plays a profound role in stabilizing Earth’s climate — and its destruction would trigger catastrophic changes for the well-being of people and nature.
The study authors write that, under current scenarios, there is a roughly even chance that these tipping points could occur in the next 300 years.
“Following current policies, this century would commit to a 45 percent tipping risk by 2300, even if temperatures are brought back to below 1.5 [degrees Celsius],” the authors wrote in the study.
But, despite pledges to slash fossil fuel emissions, and slow global warming, humanity is not on track to meet global climate goals.

[2] “Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points” ~ by David I. Armstrong McKay et al
➥ https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abn7950

[3] “Achieving net zero greenhouse gas emissions critical to limit climate tipping risks” by Tessa Möller etal
➥ https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-49863-0

“... This means that a small increase in global mean temperature (GMT) can trigger a large qualitative change in these subsystems. Decreasing the forcing back to its pre-industrial value will often not reverse this change, as the transitions are driven by self-amplifying feedback mechanisms that lead to hysteresis behaviour ...”

[Baronkrak]

10 years ago, with the disappearance of permafrost in the Europeans Alps the tipping point for the survival of the glaciers was reached. It is estimated that by 2100 all glaciers in Europeans Alps will have disappeared. The European limiting their excessive us of energy could have prevented this. Now only an ice age can reverse that situation.

[newhaul]

Originally Posted by Baronkrak

10 years ago, with the disappearance of permafrost in the Europeans Alps the tipping point for the survival of the glaciers was reached. It is estimated that by 2100 all glaciers in Europeans Alps will have disappeared. The European limiting their excessive us of energy could have prevented this. Now only an ice age can reverse that situation.

Sorry but I disagree the permafrost is not gon .
This peer reviewed study seems to back my position as well .
https://doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/PANGAEA.917719

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by newhaul

Sorry but I disagree the permafrost is not gon .
This peer reviewed study seems to back my position as well .
https://doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/PANGAEA.917719

Not exactly.

According to the authors [Schrott, Lothar; Otto, Jan-Christoph; Keller, Felix
“Modelling alpine permafrost distribution in the Hohe Tauern region, Austria” (2012):

Originally Posted by Schrott et al 2012

“... The simulation was not validated for other parts of the country and may be erronous. Furthermore, the field evidence was collected between 2009 and 2011 and may not be valid anymore ...

... For the entire study area of the Hohe Tauern region (4378 km2 ) we
estimate with our model an area of 550 km2 which is currently underlain by permafrost to a lesser or greater extent. This corresponds to approximately 13% of the total area ...

... In the European Alps climate change with warming trends can be observed since the second half of the 19TH century and the mean annual air temperature increased in Austria since 1850 about 2°C (Böhm, 2009). The most visible indicator of change in the cryosphere is the strong retreat and loss of volume of alpine glaciers which relatively short reaction times. Mountain permafrost reacts also sensitively to warming but somewhat delayed and almost invisible ...

... According to our assumption an increase of only 1 or 2 K of mean annual ground temperature will lead to a potential reduction of permafrost areas of 70 and 90%, respectively ... ”

[newhaul]

Originally Posted by GordMay

Not exactly.

According to the authors [Schrott, Lothar; Otto, Jan-Christoph; Keller, Felix
“Modelling alpine permafrost distribution in the Hohe Tauern region, Austria” (2012):

Really like the ambiguity of the last paragraph. Why don't they say it in simple terms
" we don't know what will happen. "

[GordMay]

I agree that "it would be nice; but, simple answers, to complex questions, are seldom right [or even possible].

Could you please quote the “last paragraph” that you find ambiguous?
IDK if you are reffing to my last, the peer reviewed paper’s last [which is Acknowledgements], or the paper’s ‘Conclusion and perspectives’.
If 6, Conclusion and perspectives, which paragraph?
➥ https://www.ajes.at/images/AJES/arch...ajes_105_2.pdf

[newhaul]

Originally Posted by GordMay

Could you please quote the “last paragraph” that you find ambiguous?
IDK if you are reffing to my last, the peer reviewed paper’s last [which is Acknowledgements], or the paper’s ‘Conclusion and perspectives’.
If 6, Conclusion and perspectives, which paragraph?
➥ https://www.ajes.at/images/AJES/arch...ajes_105_2.pdf

Sorry this one

According to our assumption an increase of only 1 or 2 K of mean annual ground temperature will lead to a potential reduction of permafrost areas of 70 and 90%, respectively


That above paragraph . I converted to laymen terms

[jeanathon]

I'm confused. How does this help me get another boat?

[derfy]

Originally Posted by jeanathon

I'm confused. How does this help me get another boat?

There is no longer a reason to get another boat, since we are at the "tipping point" of a global cataclysm. None of us get out of this alive! See how much trouble and money we have saved you?

Just get a ticket on a Carnival Cruise Ship, and for a week play the slots, try out all the feed troughs, and go out on the snorkel boat.

[GordMay]

A couple of other conspirators, derfy & I missed:
“Big Karma”
They don’t know what the government is trying to do to us, but are convinced, we must have it coming.
“Critical Race Theory”
Claims that NASCAR sucks.

[newhaul]

Originally Posted by GordMay

A couple of other conspirators, derfy & I missed:
“Big Karma”
They don’t know what the government is trying to do to us, but are convinced, we must have it coming.
“Critical Race Theory”
Claims that NASCAR sucks.

Now that's a step to fsr .
My marriage is on hold every year during the NASCAR season.

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by newhaul

Now that's a step to fsr .
My marriage is on hold every year during the NASCAR season.

Doesn't NASCAR season run from February through March?
Must make Dec/Jan "interesting".

[newhaul]

Originally Posted by GordMay

Doesn't NASCAR season run from February through March?
Must make Dec/Jan "interesting".

February thru November.
And yes at times the Thanksgiving and Christmas dinner conversation is interesting .
We discuss the failed strategy of last year and possible winners of the upcoming season.

We discuss the America's cup sailing races as well.