Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC)

[RossD]

Climate change, yes. Every day it changes, every year, every century and on and on....

[Lewis Harry]

It has All happened before ... several times! There was a global warming period in the Middle Ages. The records showing it was warmer than now. All of a sudden between 1340 to 1350, global temps plunged the world into an almost ice age lasting some 500 years.
London's Thames river froze solid with over a foot thick ice and the whole city had Fairs out on the ice! Only beginning in the 1880s did global temps begin warming again.
Remembering in the 1970s, ALL the "experts" were howling about an imminent Ice Age. They were wrong too! Lewis

[GordMay]

Why does one have to "put one's two cents in"; but, it's only a "penny for one's thoughts"?
Where's that extra penny going to?

[newhaul]

Originally Posted by GordMay

Why does one have to "put one's two cents in"; but, it's only a "penny for one's thoughts"?
Where's that extra penny going to?

Government thought tax

[GordMay]

The planet's average surface temperature has risen about 2 degrees Fahrenheit (1 degrees Celsius), since the late 19th century, a change driven largely by increased carbon dioxide emissions, into the atmosphere, and other human activities. Most of the warming occurred in the past 40 years.

The ocean has absorbed much of this increased heat, with the top 100 meters (328 feet) of ocean showing warming of 0.67 degrees Fahrenheit (0.33 degrees Celsius), since 1969. Earth stores 90% of the extra energy in the ocean.

Global sea level rose about 8 inches (20 centimeters), in the last century. The rate, in the last two decades, however, is nearly double that of the last century, and accelerating slightly every year.

While Earth’s climate has changed, throughout its history, the current warming is happening, at a rate not seen, in the past 10,000 years.
The current warming trend is different, because it’s clearly the result of human activities, since the mid-1800s, and is proceeding at a rate, not seen over many recent millennia.
The rapid warming, we’re seeing now, can't be explained by natural cycles, of warming and cooling. The kind of changes that would normally happen, over hundreds of thousands of years, are now happening in decades.
Current warming is occurring roughly 10 times faster, than the average rate of warming, after an ice age.

Carbon dioxide, from human activities, is increasing about 250 times faster, than it did from natural sources, after the last Ice Age.
The recent increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration is unprecedented in the past 800,000 years. Atmospheric CO2 concentration surpassed 400 ppm in 2016, and the September 2024 concentration was 422.03 ppm.
In fact, studies of past CO2 levels, have accumulated evidence of CO2 levels being lower than 400 ppm, for the past 23 million years, a period that's a hundred times, the 200,000 years, that homo sapiens have inhabited the earth.

Another common argument, used to dismiss the significance of human-caused climate change, is to falsely allege that, in the 1970s, scientists showed concerns about global cooling, which did not materialise; and there is, therefore, no need to heed current scientific concerns, about global warming.

Some press reports, in the 1970s, speculated about continued cooling [& some were faked hoaxes*]; but, these did not accurately reflect the scientific literature of the time, which was generally more concerned with warming, from an enhanced greenhouse effect.
In the scientific papers, which considered climate trends of the 21st century, fewer than 10% were inclined towards future cooling, while most papers predicted future warming.

* “Sorry, a TIME Magazine Cover Did Not Predict a Coming Ice Age” ~ by Bryan Walsh, in TIME Magazine, June 06, 2013
➥ https://science.time.com/2013/06/06/...oming-ice-age/

“The Myth of the 1970s Global Cooling Scientific Consensus" ~ by thomas C. Peterson, in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Sept. 2008
➥ https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/11...2370%252E1.pdf

“There was no scientific consensus in the 1970s that the Earth was headed into an imminent ice age. Indeed, the possibility of anthropogenic warming dominated the peer-reviewed literature even then...
... the following pervasive myth arose: there was a consensus among climate scientists of the 1970s that either global cooling or a full-fledged ice age was imminent (see the “Perpetuating the myth” sidebar). A review of the climate science literature from 1965 to 1979 shows this myth to be false. The myth’s basis lies in a selective misreading of the texts both by some members of the media at the time and by some observers today. In fact, emphasis on greenhouse warming dominated the scientific literature even then ... ”

Q: How do we solve climate change?
A: Convince conservatives, that rising temperatures, are turning people gay.

[Lewis Harry]

Thing is, the "Hockey Stick" chant/ narrative of today is contrived.
Our climate & temperatures has varied wildly over recorded history.
This latest climate change fuss is political, not scientific.
anyway, little to do about boats.

[derfy]

Human history is full of apocalyptic doomsday forecasts, promoted by those who profit from the fear they propagate.

We are still waiting for that first doomsday forecast to come true. They just can't get it right. We're all still here and still kicking.

There's nothing credible about the data offered by today's climate change alarmists. There's nothing believable about their BS temperature models and climate records, nothing credible about ocean temperatures, sea levels, ice, any of it. And any scientist who questions it just loses his job. What's credible about that?

Anyone who can think and is skeptical of all this crap is just called names. But nobody really convincingly defends the BS data-corrected temperature records and other crap that have been stitched together to make people swallow this nonsense.

Today's science is as corrupt as our elections.

[newhaul]

Originally Posted by GordMay

The planet's average surface temperature has risen about 2 degrees Fahrenheit (1 degrees Celsius), since the late 19th century, a change driven largely by increased carbon dioxide emissions, into the atmosphere, and other human activities. Most of the warming occurred in the past 40 years.

The ocean has absorbed much of this increased heat, with the top 100 meters (328 feet) of ocean showing warming of 0.67 degrees Fahrenheit (0.33 degrees Celsius), since 1969. Earth stores 90% of the extra energy in the ocean.

Global sea level rose about 8 inches (20 centimeters), in the last century. The rate, in the last two decades, however, is nearly double that of the last century, and accelerating slightly every year.

While Earth’s climate has changed, throughout its history, the current warming is happening, at a rate not seen, in the past 10,000 years.
The current warming trend is different, because it’s clearly the result of human activities, since the mid-1800s, and is proceeding at a rate, not seen over many recent millennia.
The rapid warming, we’re seeing now, can't be explained by natural cycles, of warming and cooling. The kind of changes that would normally happen, over hundreds of thousands of years, are now happening in decades.
Current warming is occurring roughly 10 times faster, than the average rate of warming, after an ice age.

Carbon dioxide, from human activities, is increasing about 250 times faster, than it did from natural sources, after the last Ice Age.
The recent increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration is unprecedented in the past 800,000 years. Atmospheric CO2 concentration surpassed 400 ppm in 2016, and the September 2024 concentration was 422.03 ppm.
In fact, studies of past CO2 levels, have accumulated evidence of CO2 levels being lower than 400 ppm, for the past 23 million years, a period that's a hundred times, the 200,000 years, that homo sapiens have inhabited the earth.

Another common argument, used to dismiss the significance of human-caused climate change, is to falsely allege that, in the 1970s, scientists showed concerns about global cooling, which did not materialise; and there is, therefore, no need to heed current scientific concerns, about global warming.

Some press reports, in the 1970s, speculated about continued cooling [& some were faked hoaxes*]; but, these did not accurately reflect the scientific literature of the time, which was generally more concerned with warming, from an enhanced greenhouse effect.
In the scientific papers, which considered climate trends of the 21st century, fewer than 10% were inclined towards future cooling, while most papers predicted future warming.

* “Sorry, a TIME Magazine Cover Did Not Predict a Coming Ice Age” ~ by Bryan Walsh, in TIME Magazine, June 06, 2013
➥ https://science.time.com/2013/06/06/...oming-ice-age/

“The Myth of the 1970s Global Cooling Scientific Consensus" ~ by thomas C. Peterson, in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Sept. 2008
➥ https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/11...2370%252E1.pdf



Q: How do we solve climate change?
A: Convince conservatives, that rising temperatures, are turning people gay.

Please show me one tidal guage where the amount of sea level rise has accelerated.
Also no the level has only risen about 4 inches overall in the last century.
The majority of what is precieved as rise is actually just simple isotastic adjustment.

As to the co2 levels the ice core data is squed and they know it they even know by how much . Has to do with percolation during the 5000 year furn stage . The adjustment that needs to be done is add 17% plus 30ppm to bring ice measurements into line with fossilized plant stoma proxy datum

In the 1970s we were polluting a lot which was causing cooling . We have cleaned up the pollution which has made it better for humans .

How we solve climate change? We don't it is not a problem nor is it controllable by humans . It is a natural cycle . Read that CYCLE .

[newhaul]

Originally Posted by derfy

Human history is full of apocalyptic doomsday forecasts, promoted by those who profit from the fear they propagate.

We are still waiting for that first doomsday forecast to come true. They just can't get it right. We're all still here and still kicking.

There's nothing credible about the data offered by today's climate change alarmists. There's nothing believable about their BS temperature models and climate records, nothing credible about ocean temperatures, sea levels, ice, any of it. And any scientist who questions it just loses his job. What's credible about that?

Anyone who can think and is skeptical of all this crap is just called names. But nobody really convincingly defends the BS data-corrected temperature records and other crap that have been stitched together to make people swallow this nonsense.

Today's science is as corrupt as our elections.

Yep it's hard to get someone to understand something when his job and income are dependent on not understanding it .

[Lewis Harry]

This last summer and fall in coastal San Diego have been slightly cooler than normal.
Even our dreaded Santa Annas this October failed to materialize. We only had several days in the high 70s. We have already begun our daily winter temps of about 60 degrees.
Every year, we usually have two weeks of summer in the 80s and two weeks of winter highs in the upper fifties, and lows in the upper 30s. It's really hard living in coastal San Diego 2 miles from the beach, and 2 miles from Mexico.

[newhaul]

Originally Posted by Lewis Harry

This last summer and fall in coastal San Diego have been slightly cooler than normal.
Even our dreaded Santa Annas this October failed to materialize. We only had several days in the high 70s. We have already begun our daily winter temps of about 60 degrees.
Every year, we usually have two weeks of summer in the 80s and two weeks of winter highs in the upper fifties, and lows in the upper 30s. It's really hard living in coastal San Diego 2 miles from the beach, and 2 miles from Mexico.

Yep San dog really sucks spent a couple months there from May 20 to July 24 1986
And then back there at 32nd Street for 6 months over that winter. Was wearing shorts when ever I could . People thought I was crazy swimming in open ocean in January.

[derfy]

Anybody who thinks you can measure the temperature of the planet with a few randomly dispersed temperature gauges on the earth's land crust, concentrated in a few countries, spanning decades of evolving temperature transducer technology and urban sprawl, is really naive. From this measly sample of data they claim they can know the temperature of a mass of 6x10^24 kg. It's just plainly stupid. Their tree rings and ice cores are no more convincing for similar reasons.

The big fix to compensate for these errors is where the apocalypticists get creative. They average and fill in the blanks and run model after model til they get the answer they want. Then it's "OMG - you need us and our trillion dollar programs to save the planet!"

Same with the temperature of the ocean. As for sea level - the Maldives were supposed to be totally submerged by now. Yes the sea is rising. 12,000 years ago you could walk from Asia to Alaska. It's up 400 ft since then. Climates do change.

And, guess what, the earth's coastal surface does not stay at a fixed altitude either. Some places sink, some rise. Don't you just hate change?

We need to make it stop changing! Or else, none of us get out of this alive. [But wait, we're not getting out of this alive]

These people never predicted anything, and never will. They are in the business of selling fear.

Screw it. I think I'll go sailing in the lovely blue Gulf Stream while I still can.

[jeanathon]

America! *uck yeah!

Originally Posted by derfy

When I was growing up, we were taught and believed..

1) We live in a great country

2) The future is bright

...so we went out there, had a bunch of kids, and lived a long and beautiful life. Some of us discovered sailing.


=======

Today we insist that...

1) We live in a terrible and evil country, and

2) The future is bleak, and getting worse all the time.

... so we stop having kids (why would you?), take drugs, sit on our butts in cyberspace while eating potato chips, commit suicide, and wonder what the hell is wrong with everybody.

===========
So when are we going to wise up about the all of the phony data from these doomsday scientists whose paychecks come from Big Climate, Big Food, Big Pharma? Do you really think they can measure these currents, and after a few years know the trends over 10's of thousands of years? Really? You want me to believe this BS?

[GordMay]

When researchers combine space-based altimetry data of the oceans with more than a century of observations, from surface-based sources, such as tide gauges, the information dramatically improves our understanding of how sea surface height is changing, on a global scale. When these sea level measurements are combined with other information, including ocean temperature, ice loss, and land motion, scientists can decipher why, and how, seas are rising.

Sea level is measured by two main methods: surface based coastal tide gauges [& Argo floats], and space-based altimetry [satellite altimeters].
Tide gauge stations have measured the daily high and low tides, for more than a century, using a variety of manual and automatic sensors. Using data, from scores of stations, around the world, scientists can calculate a global average, and adjust it for seasonal differences.
Since the early 1990s, sea level has also been measured from space, using radar altimeters, which determine the height of the sea surface, by measuring the return speed, and intensity, of a radar pulse, directed at the ocean. The higher the sea level, the faster, and stronger, the return is.

Sea level rise, at specific locations*, may be more, or less, than the global average, due to local factors, such as land subsidence from natural processes, and withdrawal of groundwater, and fossil fuels, changes in regional ocean currents, and whether the land is still rebounding, from the compressive weight of Ice Age glaciers.
The figures NOAA gives are for relative sea level rise — the combined effect of increased sea level rise from melting glaciers and thermal expansion of water from climate warming, offset by subsidence of the land from groundwater pumping, geological processes, oil and gas operations, and other factors.

“Relative Sea Level Trends” ➥ https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sl.../sltrends.html
For accelerating trends, see ‘Regional Scenarios'

* 8761724 Grand Isle, Louisiana:
The relative sea level trend is 9.16 mm/year with a 95% confidence interval of +/- 0.37 mm/year based on monthly mean sea level data from 1947 to 2023 which is equivalent to a change of 3.01 feet in 100 years.
➥ https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sl...tml?id=8761724
Regional Scenarios ➥ https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sl...rio&id=8761724

* “Acceleration of U.S. Southeast and Gulf coast sea-level rise amplified by internal climate variability” ~ by Sönke Dangendorf et al
➥ https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-37649-9

The authors, of the above 2023 paper*, used a modeling study, to show that the acceleration of sea level rise, along the Southeast, and Gulf Coasts, to over 10 mm/year, from 2010-2022, was a delayed response, to a slowdown from 2009-2010 of the Atlantic Ocean current system called the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation [AMOC].
The authors wrote, “If the 2009–10 AMOC slowdown event turns out to be a part of a long-term weakening trend, as projected by climate models under greenhouse gas forcing, sea levels along the East and Gulf Coasts may stay high in the next years. Nonetheless, it is likely that the rapid sea level rise along the Southeast and Gulf Coasts, at a rate of more than 10 mm [per year] during 2010–22, will taper off in the next decade.”
However, they theorized that the Northeast U.S., and east coast of Canada, would see extra sea level rise, of about 1.7 mm/year, as ocean currents adjust to a continued slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, because of continued emissions of heat-trapping greenhouse gases.

Figure 4. [below] from Dangendorf et al
Relative sea level rise, 1900-2021, from tide gauges from Texas to Newfoundland (bottom to top) following the Atlantic coastline. Rates that represent a significant acceleration from the mean rate are marked with black lines. Sea level rise along the U.S. Southeast and Gulf coasts has accelerated dramatically since 2010 and is now more than 10 mm/year (darker orange colors). Sea level rise north of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, is generally much lower, around 2-4 mm/year (pale orange colors).

[derfy]

Well, Gord, that certainly is some impressive science. But they could have just asked me and saved a lot of money.

11,000 years ago, when the last ice age maxed out, people were crossing the Bering Sea. Sea Level was down ~ 410 ft (that's 120,000 millimeters).

So, over the last 11,000 years, we have seen 125k/11k = 11 mm/year!

So the scientist are getting it about right. Get out the hip waders. But now, heck, we can measure acceleration! Now there's something to worry about - acceleration!

So, what's your forecast? When does the next cataclysmic Great Flood happen from all that acceleration?

By the way, I wish it would hurry up. My keel is bumping bottom coming into my favorite Inner Banks marina here in North Carolina when the wind blows from the South - and that's after they just finished dredging. Dang it! Four years ago I had all the water I needed in that channel. Measuring sea level is kinda tricky.