2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season Predictions

[GordMay]

The 2025 Hurricane Season is just two months away, and early indications suggest it may not be as hyperactive as last year’s. Still, several factors hint it won’t be quiet either.

The key predictors, currently, suggest that a slightly above average Atlantic hurricane season, in 2025, is possible; but the hyperactive characteristics, present in 2024, are fading.
Still, no matter how many [or how few] storms form, it only takes one landfall, to make a hurricane season devastating.

The precursors to tropical storms, and hurricanes, move from Africa into a vast region of warm seas in the Main Development Region [MDR]. The warmer the MDR is, the more energy, and moisture, are available to fuel storms, allowing them to strengthen, as they move through the area.
Seas, in the MDR are currently cooler, especially near the coast of Africa, than they were at this time in 2024.
But, these seas are, nonetheless, about 0.7 degrees higher than the long-term average, the eighth-warmest on record, since at least 1940.

Ocean water, across the Caribbean Sea, and western Gulf of Mexico is well above average for the time of year [a Marine Heat Wave] — enough to qualify as a marine heat wave. Should the marine heat wave linger, it may tip the scales toward stronger storms, close to land, because it provides more moisture, and fuel, for tropical weather systems.

During June to September, heavy rains, and thunderstorms bubble up, over the West African Sahel [the West African Monsoon]. The strongest disturbances survive the journey across Africa, and emerge in the Atlantic; where they meet increasingly warm seas, and strengthen further, into tropical storms, and hurricanes.
The early indication is there will likely be a more active monsoon, than normal.
Other factors, such as dust from the Sahara, can reduce hurricane risk, as the dry air suppresses rainfall, and thunderstorm activity, across the Atlantic, and can cool the ocean. But, it’s not typically possible to predict dust outbreaks, more than a week, or so, in advance.

La Niña, which tends to boost hurricane activity, is fading. The tropical Pacific Ocean is now a mix of warmer, and cooler-than-average waters; moving toward a neutral phase.
Odds are, that neutral conditions will be in place for the start of hurricane season, but this time of year presents challenges for forecasting, because of a phenomenon known as the spring predictability barrier.


On March 29, "AccuWeather” forecast near to above the historical average number of named storms [13 - 18], hurricanes [7 - 10], major hurricanes [3 - 5], accumulated cyclone energy [125 - 175 ACE] and direct impacts to the United States [3 - 6].
➥ https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurri...t-2025/1757562

Colorado State University will issue its first 2025 Atlantic seasonal hurricane forecast, at 10am EDT, on Thursday, April 3.
Release will be livestreamed from ➥ https://hurricanecenterlive.com/live-event.html

See also:

“2024 & 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecasts”
➥ https://www.cruisersforum.com/forums...ts-283269.html
Including post #75: “2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecasts”
➥ https://www.cruisersforum.com/forums...ml#post3965683

“2025 Weather Prediction” [closed]
➥https://www.cruisersforum.com/forums...on-291217.html

[ohgary]

What NOAA says about hurricanes matter less than what your insurance says about hurricanes.

[pcmm]

If you want to model weather data, I'd suggest you download all the available data you can. We had a presentation recently from a Govt weather analyst and he's saying that the U.S. is removing most of their online free weather data (even the data that is shared between countries)

according to the weather analyst for Govt Canada that was speaking, he was expecting 2025 to be a quieter year for hurricanes, based on the available data

[vickjeff]

Even if we dodge a hyperactive year, the fading La Niña and a potentially active West African Monsoon mean it only takes one nasty storm to turn things upside down

[GordMay]

CSU released its first seasonal forecast for 2025 on Thursday, April 3th, with updated forecasts on June 11, July 9th, and Aug 6.

Originally Posted by CSU

“...
We anticipate that the 2025 Atlantic basin hurricane season will have above-normal activity. Current La Niña conditions are likely to transition to ENSO neutral conditions in the next couple of months; however, there remains considerable uncertainty as to what the phase of ENSO will be this summer and fall. Sea surface temperatures across the eastern and central Atlantic are generally warmer than normal, but not as warm as they were last year at this time. A warmer-than-normal tropical Atlantic combined with likely ENSO neutral (or potential La Niña) conditions typically provides a more conducive dynamic and thermodynamic environment for hurricane formation and intensification. We anticipate an above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean. As with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season. Thorough preparations should be made every season, regardless of predicted activity.
...”

“Forecast for 2025 Hurricane Activity” ~ Colorado State University [CSU], Department of Atmospheric Science
➥ https://tropical.colostate.edu/forecasting.html

➥ https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories...99ab09279b98db

➥ https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2025-04.pdf

Originally Posted by CSU

“...
Forecast Parameters CSU Forecast for 2025 ~ Average for 1991-2020
Named Storms 17 ~ 14.4
Named Storm Days 85 ~ 69.4
Hurricanes 9 ~ 7.2
Hurricane Days 35 ~ 27.0
Major Hurricanes 4 ~ 3.2
Major Hurricane Days 9 ~ 7.4
Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE)+ 155 ~ 123
ACE West of 60 degrees longitude 93 ~ 73
...”

Originally Posted by CSU

“...
PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-4-5)
HURRICANE LANDFALL ON EACH OF THE FOLLOWING COASTAL
AREAS:
Entire continental U.S. coastline - 51% (average from 1880–2020 is
43%)
U.S. East Coast Including Florida Peninsula (south and east of Cedar Key, Florida) - 26% (average from 1880–2020 is 21%)
Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle (west and north of Cedar Key, Florida) westward to Brownsville - 33% (average from 1880–2020 is 27%)

PROBABILITY FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-4-5)
HURRICANE TRACKING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN (10-20°N, 88-60°W):
56% (average from 1880–2020 is 47%)
...”

When including other hurricane season forecasts*, I’ve seen so far, the average now calls for 16 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes, which is slightly below the recent 10-year historical average, for the Atlantic basin, but a little above the 30-year norm.

* CSU, TSR, Accuweather, Weatherbell, and ECMWF.

[GordMay]

Tropical Storm Risk [TSR] has released its April forecast update, for the upcoming 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, and lowered the number of named storms it calls for, by one, but also provides its guidance for landfalling storms, saying that it forecasts there could be 2 hurricane landfalls in the United States this year.
TSR predicts there could be 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes, with an ‘ACE’ of 120, this season.
➥ https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/do...tApril2025.pdf

[MicHughV]

Seriously ? We go thru' this every year.

Predictions, imo, are no better off then throwing darts with a blindfold on.

The fact remains that nobody knows if, when and where any potential hurricane will strike.

About the only good thing these days, is that due to satellite data, hurricanes can be tracked days in advance giving people time to prepare.

If one were to look at past hurricane paths, the one thing they all have in common, is that they are quite erratic to say the least, often veering off at the last moment due to some or other weather feature coming off mainland USA.

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by MicHughV

...
If one were to look at past hurricane paths, the one thing they all have in common, is that they are quite erratic to say the least, often veering off at the last moment due to some or other weather feature coming off mainland USA.

Steering currents, due to weather features [from N.A. & elsewhere] do affect a hurricane's path, BUT:
Atlantic hurricanes eventually turn right, or counterclockwise, primarily due to the Coriolis effect [angular momentun & ‘beta drift’], and the Bermuda [Azores] high helps determine when they curve.

Beta Drift is drift of a tropical cyclone, through the large-scale background wind, in which it is embedded. The drift is caused by the advection of the background potential vorticity field by the storm circulation. Beta drift generally causes tropical cyclones to move poleward, and westward, relative to the motion they would have if the background potential vorticity field were unperturbed by the storms.

A stronger Bermuda High pushes hurricanes farther west, before turning them northward, toward Florida and Gulf of Mexico.
A weaker Bermuda High does not push hurricanes as far west, and turns them northward sooner, toward the U.S. East Coast or out to sea.


BTW: I can predict the score of any sporting contest, before it starts...
0-0

[MicHughV]

As one that has spent a fair bit of time in Florida, I've seen a number of hurricanes come and go.
There is simply not telling where they will ultimate hit, hence the rather large cone of error shown for a hurricane's path.

It's kinda like golf as even the pro's could not tell you with any certainty where their ball will land, especially so on a windy day.

But..it gives the news channels and weather channel something to talk about, all the better while hanging sideways from a lamp pole in driving rain.

I've had to endure some "mandatory" evacuations in the past, which turned out to be a false alarm, and these days. like many, opt to ride it out in situ.

Off course, were I to be in the path of a cat 4-5 hurricane, I'd have little choice in the matter.

The worst winds, off course, are in the "eye" of a hurricane, and while some 'canes are massive in overall size, removing yourself from the "eye's" path gives you better odds of surviving the carnage.

Still, it's a yearly event, and there is no getting around that, and like most Floridians am armed with generators, spare gas, etc, etc, and will keep a sharp eye out to the east

[barnakiel]

It seems as if there is less rainfall, so probably less vapour, than the models predict. There is less rainfall than the models predict.


Humidity is an important factor in cyclone formation.


There may, in fact, be fewer tropical cyclones in the Atlantic in the future, if this trend continues.


That damages are higher each year is a proof that the way we live and the wealth we have is bigger, not that there are more or more vicious cyclones.


I expect predictions to be again wrong this year. But I would not bet on which way the nature decides to go.


barnakiel

[Ryban]

Originally Posted by barnakiel

It seems as if there is less rainfall, so probably less vapour, than the models predict. There is less rainfall than the models predict.


Humidity is an important factor in cyclone formation.


There may, in fact, be fewer tropical cyclones in the Atlantic in the future, if this trend continues.


That damages are higher each year is a proof that the way we live and the wealth we have is bigger, not that there are more or more vicious cyclones.


I expect predictions to be again wrong this year. But I would not bet on which way the nature decides to go.


barnakiel

A warming atmosphere means it can hold more water vapor and amount of rain falling is not a measure of the atmosphere's ability to form storms.

Given atmospheric moisture is one of the key ingredients to cylogenesis, and dry air is one the key impedements to a strengthening storm, I expect there to be somewhat less resistance to storm formation and strengthening with a warmer, moister atmosphere.

But cylogenesis is complex and not fully understood. There are a lot of variables that go into their formation.

[MicHughV]

I'm retired now, but spent several years working for an engineering company that specialized in hurricanes. Not so much the predictions, but the likely damage that they could produce, wind damage, wave height, storm surge, etc, etc. The company had several Ph.D's do nothing but model these storms year in and year out, using some state of the art computer simulations.
About twice a year or so they would do a company presentation, a show and tell if you wish, demonstrating some or other hurricane and it's affect on land, sea, harbors and so on.
It was fascinating stuff to be sure and I learned a lot.

My wife, on the other hand hails from south Florida and has experienced a hurricane first hand, so she certainly has her opinion on the matter and every year prepares a "hurricane stash" for "just in case". Wind and wave damage is one thing, but invariable the power goes out, gas stations don't have gas, etc, etc, and there is likely to be some local damage, so the ability to be self sustained is very important. A passing hurricane is at it's worst about 12 hours of mayhem, but will provide weeks or recuperation afterwards, and that is the real problem imo.

[hpeer]

Don’t forget the inland damage these storms can do, as illustrated last year.

[MicHughV]

Yep, the flood damage is often far worse than the wind damage

[Kettlewell]

All it takes is one! I find the prediction game this far in advance only mildly interesting, because it does only take one storm to ruin your day. Having watched them closely for close to 50 years of boating I do think the current predictions are much better, once the storm is rolling along. Sure, tracks change a few days out, but there is no excuse for not being prepared. It is like carrying a raincoat--if you have it, you keep the rain away. I find if I strip the boat, rig extra lines and anchors, and make all the prep it just about guarantees the worst of the storm will miss me. OTOH, I've had the eyes of Gloria and Bob pass almost directly over my boat, so sometimes the prep pays off!