Forced to change plans - where to go now?

[DeepCut]

If you have not seen
Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation |

look at it for expectations. This is a Bill Gates Foundation organization and many health care organizations are using it's data for planning as is the government(Not exclusively). You will note the peak and the "recovery" period going ALMOST too zero. Many expect a second, smaller wave later.

I would plan to go up east coast and explore Maine and Chesapeake. You will see a lots more face coverings all this year, so the Sun Protector hoodies/face masks will be in vogue.

Cruising is social distancing with exception of boarding others boats and sundowners with others. Dingy visits (floating off the beam of another) will be important. (I would avoid being close off stern when visiting others at this time as the 6ft rule is changed with wind carrying the droplets).

I believe you will start seeing improvement in New York in 10-14 days and other areas will trail New York.

[DeepCut]

Originally Posted by ArmyDaveNY

Another piece of good news is that the mortality rate is relatively low. If you compare the known cases with deaths, it is around 2 or 2.2% which is not bad at all. HOWEVER, the experts are saying that for every known case, there are ten or more that are not diagnosed. They also say that the actual mortality rate will likely be as low as half a percent.

I am a surgeon so not directly taking care of Covid patients. In our hospital and several others I am very familiar with, we are testing ONLY the very sick, those who definitely are being admitted to hospital or being placed on life support. We have had about 30 confirmed by testing as only about 100 tests have been performed. Hundreds of others are diagnosed by qualified doctors based on symptoms but because of scarcity of tests inner area, are treated without testing. (Treatment is really unchanged by the test at this point. Rest, Nutrition, Tylenol, quarantine at home for these people).

We will see significant improvement in US by early May.

[mcon12000]

So I’m generally an optimistic guy and I’m located on the coast of New Jersey.

We are in lockdown but I go to my boat and work keeping my distance from anyone. I also have to keep a low profile so I’m not labeled a person who’s being irresponsible. The east coast from the Chesapeake to CT is shut down for recreational craft.

I’m beyond ready to stop climbing the ladder to do work but no one is launching boats anytime soon.

If you head up the east coast don’t do it anytime soon not only will you be stopped repeatedly you won’t have anywhere to get service or parts if you have a breakdown. Some states have labeled marinas essential and others have shut them down. At mine you can get something from the store if you call and then they can walk the part out to you. I doubt they’ll offer this to a transiting boat. The only reason there are staff in my location is because they have government contracts and fuel.

My industry (concert audio) is decimated and the soonest we are planning anything is July. This is based on what insurance and rooms full of experts think is the best case scenario. I’m using that as my overlay for marinas and boating because it’s an industry driven by the opposite of social distancing and much like a crowded marina considered non essential.

Shopping right now on the coast is a problem and you are limited in most of the coastal groceries to two items of any type to protect the year round population from the seasonal population. Yesterday I told the GF to grab some Sapporo’s from the grocery and they would only let her buy two cans total bummer as three is my sweet spot lol.

I would stay put or return to Texas (I’m from Kemaha/Clear Lake) the options for sitting on the boat there are far better than the upper east coast right now. The other option would be to call ahead each time you move and head this way hoping that it clears up. I personally would not do that based on what I know but it’s just my opinion and everyone has one.

If you have a grocery nearby and no one stopping you from coming ashore Just stay put someone with an axe to grind might make an example of you as you attempt to pass through.

[Mare Nostrum]

I agree with the suggestion that sailing up the US EC is probably the best bet. New England is a super great place for summer & early fall---hit Bermuda on the way South in the fall...Bermuda is great. ALSO: It is important to remember that prolonged time at sea can decrease our immunity system, so care always needs to be atken after 10+ days at sea.

[Spring-Fever]

This will all be mostly over in a few weeks. Infection curves in DR are already beginning to flatten out nicely.

http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/


If it were me, I’d cruise north up there East Coast of USA - see if you can get to Vineyard Sound and Buzzards Bay!

And keep an eye on the infection curves for DR etc. As of now, things should open up mid- to late-May.

[Old fella]

Originally Posted by ArmyDaveNY

Don't be negative. Yes, we need to take precautions, but don't let this get you down. There is positive information, but alas, the media gets rewarded for drama, and good news doesn't sell newspapers as they say.

There have been a few reports of WWII veterans who had it and recovered just fine. One guy said something to the effect that if he survived Guam, he knew he would survive this since this was nothing compared to his island fighting in WWII. This person was 95.

Another piece of good news is that the mortality rate is relatively low. If you compare the known cases with deaths, it is around 2 or 2.2% which is not bad at all. HOWEVER, the experts are saying that for every known case, there are ten or more that are not diagnosed. They also say that the actual mortality rate will likely be as low as half a percent.

Still more good news is that the majority of those who get it have zero symptoms, and the overwhelming majority have either zero symptoms or mild symptoms.

Yes, this is a serious issue. Each person needs to look at themselves, figure out their risk factors, and act accordingly. At the same time, people need to carry on as best they can.

USA population 330 million, 2 per cent mortality rate = 660 thousand , but as long as your ok, unbelievable .

[Old fella]

Originally Posted by zeehag

jeff hartjoy as well all 5 great capes no assist. twice. nam eof baba40 is sailors run.

to all you wanting to flout quarantine laws.. just stay home. you endanger others with your irresponsible actions. sure you FEEL great, yet you are incubating and spreading virus which will grant you a loverly FEVER and mebbe neurological issues-- they have found meningitis following a short bout of confusion as first symptoms. wake up, oh folks wanting to move--DONT.
just stay put. is only a month for now-- revel in immobility.
there are far too many deniers meandering about becoming infected and infecting others merely by their presence in same air.
my question to the deniers--what makes you so special you feel the need to violate mandates of governments. in the violation o f mandates you are endangering the health of others. why are you so special that this is according to you, your alleged right.

Finally someone over there with a brain, good on ya mate.

[letsgetsailing3]

Originally Posted by Sidney777

Suggest go to anchor near any boat ramp/dock where you can have Groceries Delivered by Walmart or Instacart.
....Also near a navigable river to go inland to a hurricane hole.
Florida Panhandle.

Don’t go to the Florida Panhandle.

[letsgetsailing3]

Originally Posted by Spring-Fever

This will all be mostly over in a few weeks. Infection curves in DR are already beginning to flatten out nicely.

91-DIVOC : Flip the script on COVID-19


If it were me, I’d cruise north up there East Coast of USA - see if you can get to Vineyard Sound and Buzzards Bay!

And keep an eye on the infection curves for DR etc. As of now, things should open up mid- to late-May.

A flattened curve doesn’t mean no deaths.

A flattened curve means people finally got a clue and stayed home.

The peak is most deaths per day.

From the chart you posted, you recommended someone leisure sail to Massachusetts?

[hamburking]

Originally Posted by Old fella

USA population 330 million, 2 per cent mortality rate = 660 thousand , but as long as your ok, unbelievable .

Slight, but significant math error my friend.

2 per cent of 330 million is 6.6 MILLION dead!

Even if the mortality rate is actually only 0.3 percent, that would still be almost ONE MILLION DEAD in the USA.

However, they are reporting the mortality rate of only those reported infected. And they only test/report the very ill. Until we are able to test everyone, we really have no idea what the actual mortality rate is among the general population. The consensus I have seen on the news is that its 10 to 20 times more deadly than the flu.

[LittleWing77]

Originally Posted by DeepCut

We will see significant improvement in US by early May.

Love that calm voice of reason and professional advice, DeepCut. Thank you!

Now for a little teasing - ahem!

...which begs the question, when do *you* think you'll be going sailing this Summer?

[Montanan]

Originally Posted by LittleWing77

...which begs the question, when do *you* think you'll be going sailing this Summer?

Looking at the tapering off of COVID-19 projections from the CDC [which model is based on the USA stay at home protocols being imposed through the end of May], I would anticipate launching the later part of June or early July. Marina fee having been paid for the season. Resulting in about a one month delay, one third reduction from a normal season of June, July, August and Winter. And even then the usual marina and at anchor gatherings will be keeping social distancing as a precaution through the entire summer, with perhaps an expected second wave of COVID-19 late next Fall in the northern hemisphere as the endemic virus initiates a seasonal pattern. Opposite seasons in the southern hemisphere, minimal seasonality in the equatorial regions.

[ArmyDaveNY]

Originally Posted by Paul L

Interestingly the bars are open but the border isn't, so better not sail there.

But the bars are essential businesses. Remember, alcohol kills germs.

[ArmyDaveNY]

Originally Posted by Montanan

Looking at the tapering off of COVID-19 projections from the CDC [which model is based on the USA stay at home protocols being imposed through the end of May], I would anticipate launching the later part of June or early July. Marina fee having been paid for the season. Resulting in about a one month delay, one third reduction from a normal season of June, July, August and Winter. And even then the usual marina and at anchor gatherings will be keeping social distancing as a precaution through the entire summer, with perhaps an expected second wave of COVID-19 late next Fall in the northern hemisphere as the endemic virus initiates a seasonal pattern. Opposite seasons in the southern hemisphere, minimal seasonality in the equatorial regions.

What happened to September, October and occasionally November? I usually am out on the water until December and often January and February.

[Cadence]

Originally Posted by ArmyDaveNY

But the bars are essential businesses. Remember, alcohol kills germs.

Loved it! A little humor is needed these days.