Why is it So Cold Right Now? (Polar Vortex)

[jpstevens]

Thanks Deepfrz, for the video from the CBC.

[senormechanico]

Originally Posted by newhaul

6 inches of global warming and still coming down
Scientists: 'No evidence' climate change causing cold from polar vortex dips - Washington Times

I can still see the ground (kinda) on the high spots here on Whidbey, but it's so windy that we have 1 foot snowdrifts here and there.
The cat was looking out the door, so I thought he might want to go out.
When I opened it to grab some more firewood off the deck, he ran the other way !

[Bentwings]

Here in the Twin Cities of Minnesota I was -30 f and -51 f windchill two days. I don’t remember it being this cold here. North in Duluth yes a couple winters it was colder.
The wind is what reall made it dangerous here. My dog and I went out three times each day and walked about 1/2 mile each time. I got cold even really layered up with a warm? hoodie. I should have bought the black “ terrorist” face mask back in Nov but I jokingly though I might get stopped and questioned.LOL. I sure was missing it.

Three days after this it was + 49 deg f, near record high for the month. Strange weather. Now we have freezing rain. It’s nearly unwalkable even with ice cleats.
I was down at the marina to see how the live aboards were doing. It was too cold to get out of the car so my pictures weren’t very good. There were several bubblers that were really doing the job. The boats had their own lake around them even though the pack ice was a good 6” thick.

I’m rethinking the heater and bubbler. Bigger is better here. I’ll be using two bubblers. I don’t think they can be throttled so just turn the second one on for really cold weather. I’ll add a second standby heater for the extreme cold.

Water? I don’t know. Culligan is easily accessible and they deliver. I hate buying water in the land of ten thousand lakes. They don’t tell you that most freeze solid in the winter.

[williampagano]

Get over it. It’s weather! Changes constantly but Climate changes cyclically. Both short term, long term, millinially, and the long slow march toward final extinction. From that overall structure spins off the variations of our daily comfort. So just enjoy what you get ‘til the lights turn off.

[GordMay]

Greetings and belated welcome aboard the CF, WilliamP.

[Bentwings]

Getting over it? No I don’t think so. Respecting it is better. Know that it’s extremely dangerous to be outside when it’s this cold. Not many are out and about and far fewer are available if something happens too you.

What if you slip and fall and break something! Have you got the drive left to creep, crawl, slither or slide to saftey? Hypothermia works just as well with cold air as it does with cold water. Just be extra careful when it’s this cold. Deal with your situation at present and let the theories be until you are safely and comfortable beside your heat source.

[bouncycastle]

Next 35 years we go into a mini ice age. Why ????Simple the earth is now going to be the furthermost from the sun than it normally is as per its non circular orbit .Every 100,000 years the earth gets this same extended distance orbit and means the earth get s 33% less energy and heat from the sun . In all history this has been the trigger event that kick started a ice age . Maybe the scientists think all thee SUV cars and global warming CO2 they make will keep the ice age away and save us .Some recent productions are this year 2019 will in February be so cold that entire USA cities Will be wiped out massive death events. I am not expert enough to know if that is the case but the Obama shut down of coal power means the USA grid could crack open in February due to lack of enough extra power to handle extra demands that cold creates to power demand .Wrap up well and park your boat in the equator

[Jdege]

Originally Posted by Bentwings

Here in the Twin Cities of Minnesota I was -30 f and -51 f windchill two days. I don’t remember it being this cold here..

I do.

But, then, I've lived here 40+ years.

[newhaul]

Originally Posted by bouncycastle

Next 35 years we go into a mini ice age. Why ????Simple the earth is now going to be the furthermost from the sun than it normally is as per its non circular orbit .Every 100,000 years the earth gets this same extended distance orbit and means the earth get s 33% less energy and heat from the sun . In all history this has been the trigger event that kick started a ice age . Maybe the scientists think all thee SUV cars and global warming CO2 they make will keep the ice age away and save us .Some recent productions are this year 2019 will in February be so cold that entire USA cities Will be wiped out massive death events. I am not expert enough to know if that is the case but the Obama shut down of coal power means the USA grid could crack open in February due to lack of enough extra power to handle extra demands that cold creates to power demand .Wrap up well and park your boat in the equator

this view is a bit over the edge . Almost as bad as the agw zelots
And I hate to say it but we are not at the furthest from the sun as we can be wrt the milankovitch cycles but we are leaving the perihelion on the many thousands year trip to the apehlion . Then there is the more pressing and more immediate concern of the current extended solar minimum and impending 400 year cycle grand minimum And all of the various things that come with it. These together are cooling the planet.

[Jdege]

It might be a but over the edge, but it made for a fair SF novel:

Fallen Angels
- Niven, Pournelle, & Flynn

Not the greatest, but fun if you're an SF fan.

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by bouncycastle

Next 35 years we go into a mini ice age. Why ????Simple the earth is now going to be the furthermost from the sun than it normally is as per its non circular orbit .Every 100,000 years the earth gets this same extended distance orbit and means the earth get s 33% less energy and heat from the sun ...

The distance between Earth and sun varies slightly throughout the year. At aphelion, the farthest distance from the sun, Earth is 152 million km away. But at perihelion, the closest distance from the sun, the Earth is 147 million km away. As a result, throughout the year, the amount (per inverse square law) of light reaching Earth's surface changes by a few percent (± 6.5%).

[newhaul]

Originally Posted by GordMay

The distance between Earth and sun varies slightly throughout the year. At aphelion, the farthest distance from the sun, Earth is 152 million km away. But at perihelion, the closest distance from the sun, the Earth is 147 million km away. As a result, throughout the year, the amount (per inverse square law) of light reaching Earth's surface changes by a few percent (± 6.5%).

gord that is in the basically circular orbit we are currently in. He was trying to put us about 25k years ahead of our current position in the milankovitch cycle

[jimbunyard]

Amusing, but not surprising, that conspiracy theorists can't agree on their respective invalid conspiracies...

Look! Still cooling!!







For those who have problems visualizing graphs, the ones above are a direct representation of the same information shown in these maps.






And, just in case any of you are interested in where your conspiracies actually originate, here's a video (actually just a podcast, so no pretty pictures)...though I suspect the more---indoctrinated---of you will twist this into some kind of conspiracy as well.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kAPxu9LK_2M&t=3585s

[GordMay]

Changes in orbital eccentricity affect the Earth-sun distance. Currently, a difference of only about 3 percent (5 million kilometers) exists between closest approach (perihelion), which occurs on or about January 3, and furthest departure (aphelion), which occurs on or about July 4. This difference in distance amounts to about a 6 percent increase in incoming solar radiation (insolation) from July to January.
Variations in the Earth's eccentricity, axial tilt, and precession comprise the three dominant cycles, collectively known as the Milankovitch Cycles (after Milutin Milankovitch).
The shape of the Earth’s orbit changes (±0% to 5% ellipticity) from being elliptical (high eccentricity) to being nearly circular (low eccentricity) in a cycle that takes about 400,000 years, with a superimposed 100,000 year cycle. There is also an unimportant 2.1 million year cycle. When the orbit is at its most elliptical, the amount of solar radiation at perihelion is ±23% more than at aphelion. This is a very small effect though, amounting to less than 0.2% change in solar insolation, equivalent to a radiative forcing of ~0.45 W/m2 (assuming present-day albedo). At present the orbital eccentricity is nearly at the minimum (0.005, or ½%) of its cycle (±0.017, or 1.7%).
As the axial tilt increases (every 41,000 years or so), the seasonal contrast increases so that winters are colder and summers are warmer in both hemispheres.
Changes in axial precession (every 23,000 years or so) alter the dates of perihelion and aphelion, and therefore increase the seasonal contrast in one hemisphere and decrease the seasonal contrast in the other hemisphere.
Using these three orbital variations, Milankovitch was able to formulate a comprehensive mathematical model that calculated latitudinal differences in insolation and the corresponding surface temperature for 600,000 years prior to the year 1800. He then attempted to correlate these changes with the growth and retreat of the Ice Ages. To do this, Milankovitch assumed that radiation changes in some latitudes and seasons are more important to ice sheet growth and decay than those in others.
Taken in unison, variations in these three cycles creates alterations in the seasonality of solar radiation reaching the Earth's surface. These times of increased or decreased solar radiation directly influence the Earth's climate system, thus impacting the advance and retreat of Earth's glaciers.
It is significant that climate change, and subsequent periods of glaciation, resulting from those three variables is not due to the total amount of solar energy reaching Earth. The three Milankovitch Cycles impact the seasonality and location of solar energy around the Earth, thus impacting contrasts between the seasons.

It might be argued that if you look hard enough, you can find a correlation between solar cycles and anything, such as cycles in the stockmarket.

[CatNewBee]

Originally Posted by GordMay

It might be argued that if you look hard enough, you can find a correlation between solar cycles and anything, such as cycles in the stockmarket.

Yes, recently they found a correlation between mean temperature and CO2 concentration that way, isn't it crazy?



Still a hen/egg discussion, is there more CO2 because of warming or is there warming because of CO2 or are they not related at all, is it man made or not and what was the CO2 concentration before plants eat it all.

And how come, Earth has still a liquid core, while other planets in the solar system don't, and how does this effect the climate on the surface?