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Old 17-11-2021, 14:20   #1
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Weather and seastate for SE US passages

Hey all, our normal cruising grounds are up north and we have a fair understanding of what works well for our boat. Usually anything from a close reach abaft we head out to sea. Most recently though we've been surprised by conditions offshore of points south of cape Hatteras and chickened out to our bailout points for various reasons. Mostly because we underestimate how much of an upwind component there is in the "good enough" wind we've taken to make certain destinations.

There's a strong northerly forecast starting Friday that would blow us from frosty Georgetown right to Florida's coast, but we're waffling on whether the 25 knot blow with a 8-10' following sea is a prudent and fast passage opportunity or a death wish. We'd stick close ish to shore to avoid the gulf current, leaving friday morning to make landfall at St Augustine around Saturday evening. The biggest concerns are simply how nasty it'll be surfing for 36 hours, and that entering any inlet on Florida's coast with a following sea and good wind astern could be hazardous.

In these circumstances, I'm curious to read the room as to how many would stay put and wait out a very chilly week vs take the plunge and strap in for what could be a wild ride in an older boat as relative novices. We have a solid boat but we are generally over canvassed and with an unconventional (cat schooner) rig likely flying only a double reefed mainsail. We're not sure if we'll ever have the mythical 15-20 knot north or west wind with a calm sea that we'd normally wait for up north.
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Old 17-11-2021, 15:50   #2
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Re: Weather and seastate for SE US passages

Don’t know what conditions cruising grounds up north are. Our experience is offshore conditions always exceed what is forecast. For us, 25 knots offshore and 8 to 10 foot seas forecast is stay put or ICW territory!
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Old 17-11-2021, 21:55   #3
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Re: Weather and seastate for SE US passages

If you haven't entered St Augstine Inlet before, it is a poor choice to do in rambunctious conditions. The entrance markers are moved to deal with the sand bars and are not that eady to see when it is rough. Jacksonville is much more an all weather entrance.
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Old 18-11-2021, 17:21   #4
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Re: Weather and seastate for SE US passages

Thanks guys, I have polled here and a few other friends of mine and I think the consensus is to wait out the big friday blow and take some of the residual north wind on Saturday. Looks like there is a narrow window to depart and hug close to the coastline with landfall either in Charleston, Hilton Head, Brunswick, or Jacksonville depending on how long the wind lasts. The point about coming into St. Augustine in the dark or in a tumultuous set of conditions is well taken. There is a westerly blow setting up Monday that might be more suitable for close/beam reaching down the florida coast from Jax to St. Augustine and might be more amenable to making our way in.

I wonder if there are any other folks thinking of setting off from georgetown! Could be a fun blast.
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Old 18-11-2021, 21:02   #5
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Re: Weather and seastate for SE US passages

I've done that trip about 10 times in late November but usually from Beaufort NC. I always leave just after a front passage. On a couple of occasions I have stayed in the ICW until Georgetown when it was really bad off shore( from Beaufort to Georgetown is a further offshore leg). I've never stayed in the ICW southbound past Georgetown. There's a line of bouys marking the outside of the shoals all the way down the coast and if you stay just outside of them the waves are not as bad as further off shore. My cat loves a following sea so is quite comfortable in 4ft waves from the stern. If you are comfortable with that you probably won't experience anything worse if you don't go too far off shore. It's a little longer sticking close to shore but much more comfortable. Mondays front looks worse wind wise but if you are making any speed at all you will probably be there before the next front gets there. The wind will be east by the time you get to St. Augustine and that inlet is not the easiest to get into, especially on an east wind. If the wind has gone east I recommend that you go into the ICW at Jax or St. Mary's. Both are deep water inlets that are safe to enter even at night and on an east wind. The same cannot be said for St. Augustine. If the wind has gone south by the time you get there the ICW is a lot more comfortable than beating to windward in a 4ft chop. Have a nice trip.
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Old 19-11-2021, 10:26   #6
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Re: Weather and seastate for SE US passages

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Originally Posted by Captain Bill View Post
I've done that trip about 10 times in late November but usually from Beaufort NC. I always leave just after a front passage. On a couple of occasions I have stayed in the ICW until Georgetown when it was really bad off shore( from Beaufort to Georgetown is a further offshore leg). I've never stayed in the ICW southbound past Georgetown. There's a line of bouys marking the outside of the shoals all the way down the coast and if you stay just outside of them the waves are not as bad as further off shore. My cat loves a following sea so is quite comfortable in 4ft waves from the stern. If you are comfortable with that you probably won't experience anything worse if you don't go too far off shore. It's a little longer sticking close to shore but much more comfortable. Mondays front looks worse wind wise but if you are making any speed at all you will probably be there before the next front gets there. The wind will be east by the time you get to St. Augustine and that inlet is not the easiest to get into, especially on an east wind. If the wind has gone east I recommend that you go into the ICW at Jax or St. Mary's. Both are deep water inlets that are safe to enter even at night and on an east wind. The same cannot be said for St. Augustine. If the wind has gone south by the time you get there the ICW is a lot more comfortable than beating to windward in a 4ft chop. Have a nice trip.
This is enormously helpful, thank you very much! We're going to head out tomorrow on the falling high tide from Georgetown and hope to be on the trail before noon to make jacksonville by Sunday PM. If the wind dies out a little earlier we can tuck into St. Mary's or jekell island.

It's been a long often cold road down from Maine and I know we'll feel much better when the daytime highs are safe in the 70s
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Old 19-11-2021, 13:41   #7
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Re: Weather and seastate for SE US passages

One note of caution. Having done that trip several times, if you stay”close to shore” going sea buoy to sea buoy, you will be surprised at how a flood tide will set you towards the inlets. So much so that it’s easy to think you are on a rumb line, but in fact being set to the inlet side. I go another 5 miles out to the seaward side of the buoys during a flood tide.
Also, you may want to check with the Georgia DNR to find out where the right whales are this time of year.
At night, all things go bump. They are big enough to be a nightmare if you cross their path.
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Old 19-11-2021, 14:06   #8
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Re: Weather and seastate for SE US passages

We made a passage from Hampton, VA to Tortola in November, 2010. We saw 25-30kts on the stern quarter and 12ft following seas the first 3-4 days. Our 46ft monohull was happy in those conditions with a double-reefed mainsail and the jib partially furled away. We regularly saw 10kts on the speedo, once in a while 12 down the face of a wave. This was east of the gulf stream.



The only issue was that our autopilot died on us on day two (turned out to be a manufacturing defect), so we had to hand-steer. Tiring in those conditions, but we had plenty of crew.
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Old 19-11-2021, 14:54   #9
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Re: Weather and seastate for SE US passages

In those waters, I have frequently seen 25 predicted which ended up as 35 knots with gusts to 45. 25 could be more than you want, especially since the US Government went to all that trouble to build an ICW for you.
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Old 19-11-2021, 22:32   #10
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Re: Weather and seastate for SE US passages

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Originally Posted by CaptAirman View Post
Hey all, our normal cruising grounds are up north and we have a fair understanding of what works well for our boat. Usually anything from a close reach abaft we head out to sea. Most recently though we've been surprised by conditions offshore of points south of cape Hatteras and chickened out to our bailout points for various reasons. Mostly because we underestimate how much of an upwind component there is in the "good enough" wind we've taken to make certain destinations.

There's a strong northerly forecast starting Friday that would blow us from frosty Georgetown right to Florida's coast, but we're waffling on whether the 25 knot blow with a 8-10' following sea is a prudent and fast passage opportunity or a death wish. We'd stick close ish to shore to avoid the gulf current, leaving friday morning to make landfall at St Augustine around Saturday evening. The biggest concerns are simply how nasty it'll be surfing for 36 hours, and that entering any inlet on Florida's coast with a following sea and good wind astern could be hazardous.

In these circumstances, I'm curious to read the room as to how many would stay put and wait out a very chilly week vs take the plunge and strap in for what could be a wild ride in an older boat as relative novices. We have a solid boat but we are generally over canvassed and with an unconventional (cat schooner) rig likely flying only a double reefed mainsail. We're not sure if we'll ever have the mythical 15-20 knot north or west wind with a calm sea that we'd normally wait for up north.

Interesting dialogue: I’m currently, as I write) delivering a 40 Nauticat open. We are approximately 6 wiles off Hatteras (heading south to , probably Fernandina, St Marys Inlet, from Annapolis). ICW was not considered mast over 66ft. Current weather: 6 to 8 ft wave with an occasional 10ft 10 sec or so interval. Running with reefed main and reefed storm jib. Winds n/be 18 to 27, making 7 to 9 kts sog, with occasional slide down wave of 11 to 12 sog. Date 11/20, time 01:30. Yes a bit of an exciting ride; boat is new, owner on board, preventers in place.
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Old 20-11-2021, 04:10   #11
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Re: Weather and seastate for SE US passages

I believe There’s a weather forecaster named Chris Parker who does detailed weather predictions based on your vessels polars, definitely for FL where he is based he gives highly accurate off shore predictions. I have been with a couple of rallies that use him to give forecasts for the fleet. I do not know what the cost structure is but if you are cruising these areas he is the “Go To”. A little weather advice for the peace of mind and confidence is a nice option.
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Old 20-11-2021, 04:32   #12
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Re: Weather and seastate for SE US passages

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Originally Posted by Stmurray62 View Post
Interesting dialogue: I’m currently, as I write) delivering a 40 Nauticat open. We are approximately 6 wiles off Hatteras (heading south to , probably Fernandina, St Marys Inlet, from Annapolis). ICW was not considered mast over 66ft. Current weather: 6 to 8 ft wave with an occasional 10ft 10 sec or so interval. Running with reefed main and reefed storm jib. Winds n/be 18 to 27, making 7 to 9 kts sog, with occasional slide down wave of 11 to 12 sog. Date 11/20, time 01:30. Yes a bit of an exciting ride; boat is new, owner on board, preventers in place.
Thanks for the report, as for down off of Georgetown I will update as we head out if the conditions are not too tumultuous. Just finishing up coffee and hoping to make a good turn of speed to jacksonville.

May run double reefed main and reefed foresail or no foresail at all.
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Old 20-11-2021, 05:17   #13
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Re: Weather and seastate for SE US passages

you are going to stay close to shore to avoid the Gulfstream, so you will have currents from inlets and short steep seas due to the shallows.....unpleasant ride, wait it out
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Old 20-11-2021, 07:01   #14
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Re: Weather and seastate for SE US passages

We made the trip down from Norfolk to St. Augustine a few weeks ago. Sailing inside the Gulf Stream you will be in shallow waters (by offshore standards) and we have definitely seen the wave shapes be less comfortable than in deeper offshore waters. One night off Georgia we had seas of 8-10' and took a breaking 15 footer from behind and into the cockpit of our cat. That was an interesting experience. It was not the first time that we have seen mid-height waves with quite short periods along that part of the coast.

We entered St. Augustine in somewhat abated conditions of winds in the low 20s and seas 5-6'. In daylight that was an easy entry. At night it would have been very tricky as the channel markers are mostly unlit and uncharted and would be hard to locate. In the dark (as far as I remember the inlets) you'd be better off with St. Johns or St. Marys.
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Old 20-11-2021, 08:39   #15
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Re: Weather and seastate for SE US passages

Don't try to enter St Andrews Sound just south of Jekyll island, it is too shallow and the sand bars are always shifting. The Coast Guard doesn't even maintain the markers and the shrimp boats snag them and move them around. The ICW just north of Jekyll is extremely shallow also. I have found that, if you stay in water shallower than 100 feet offshore, there is a south bound counter current to the Gulf Stream. I usually stay in about 60 feet when heading south. Have a great trip.
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