Quote:
Originally Posted by jackdale
If the climate science paradigm is in dispute, then at least one scientific institution or professional society would be on the record as saying so.
Belief is for religion. Science is based on evidence, the overwhelming body of evidence supports support that paradigm.
There are no natural forcings that can explain the current warming. The correlation of CO2 and temperature is well understood and as is the mechanism of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions.
Thomas Kuhn, a physicist, has a superb discussion of of the role of scientific consensus in scientific paradigms. The Structure of Scientific Revolutions should be required reading for anyone interested in how science progresses. My copy from grad school is still on my bookshelf.
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This is only theory, but climate shifts of the past must be considered. How about some archeology and historical records to show petroleum and coal industries that would have caused the midieval warming period and little ice age? And what of the sudden deaths of woolly mammoths in the arctic? Was there a CO2 producing society to cause that climatic shift? More recently, petroleum and coal use was still at quite small scale during the dust bowl of the North American mid west in the 30's. It would be difficult to tie such small
consumption to that climate event.
Bottom line is that the climate
mob fails to consider natural climate variation over long periods of time. Miner variations over recent decades are really insignificant compared to larger changes of past millennia. And there was no mass use of hydrocarbon
fuel in those times. The climate mob chooses to ignore
history and concentrate on flawed computer models.
Pains taking scientific climate studies may off some insight into theory. But theory is easily tested against the reality of failed predictions. Here are a few examples:
"1990 IPCC FAR: “Under the IPCC ‘Business as Usual’ emissions of greenhouse gases the average rate of increase of global mean temperature during the next century is estimated to be 0.3°C per decade
Reality check: Since 1990 the warming rate has been from 0.12 to 0.19°C per decade depending on the database used.
2001 IPCC TAR (AR3) predicts that milder
winter temperatures will decrease heavy snowstorms.
2014 Dr. John Holdren, director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy for the Obama administration said: “a growing body of evidence suggests that the kind of extreme cold being experienced by much of the United States as we speak is a pattern we can expect to see with increasing frequency, as global warming continues.” See here.
Reality check: By predicting both milder winters and colder winters the probability of getting it right increases. Now, to cover all possibilities they simply need to predict no change in winters.
2000 Dr. David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia, predicts that within a few years
winter snowfall will become “a very rare and exciting event.
Reality check: Northern Hemisphere snow area shows remarkable little change since 1967. See here. The 2012-2013 winter was the fourth largest winter snow cover extent on
record for the Northern Hemisphere.
2007 IPCC AR4 predicts that by 2020, between 75 and 250 million of people are projected to be exposed to increased
water stress due to climate change. In some countries, yields from rain-fed agriculture could be reduced by up to 50%.
Reality check: Only six years later, IPPC acknowledges that confidence is low for a global-scale observed trend in drought or dryness (lack of rainfall) since the middle of the 20th century, and that AR4 conclusions regarding global increasing trends in drought since the 1970s were probably overstated.
2010 Dr. Morris Bender, from NOAA, and coauthors predict that “the U.S. Southeast and the
Bahamas will be pounded by more very intense hurricanes in the coming decades due to global warming.” They say the strongest hurricanes may double in frequency.
Reality check: After 40 years of global warming no increase in hurricanes has been detected. NOAA U.S. Landfalling Tropical System index shows no increase, and in fact, a very unusual 11-year drought in strong
hurricane US landfalls took place from 2005-2016.
IPCC AR5 states “Current datasets indicate no significant observed trends in global tropical cyclone frequency over the past century … No robust trends in annual numbers of tropical storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes counts have been identified over the past 100 years in the North Atlantic basin”
“In summary, there continues to be a lack of evidence and thus low confidence regarding the sign of trend in the magnitude and/or frequency of floods on a global scale”
“In summary, there is low confidence in observed trends in small-scale severe
weather phenomena such as hail and thunderstorms”
2001 IPCC TAR (AR3) said that fire frequency is expected to increase with human-induced climate change, and that several authors suggest that climate change is likely to increase the number of days with severe burning conditions, prolong the fire season, and increase
lightning activity, all of which lead to probable increases in fire frequency and areas burned.
2012 Steve Running, a wildfire expert, ecologist and forestry professor at the University of Montana says the fires burning throughout the U.S. offer a window into what we can expect in the future as the climate heats up.
Reality check: The global area of land burned each year declined by 24 percent between 1998 and 2015, according to analysis of
satellite data by NASA scientists and their colleagues. Scientists now believe the decrease in forest fires is increasing 7% the amount of CO2 stored by plants.
2007 Dr. Felix Landerer of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg,
Germany, published a study predicting that Global warming will make Earth spin faster.
2015 Dr. Jerry Mitrovica, professor of geophysics at Harvard University finds out that days are getting longer as the Earth spins slower, and blames climate change.
Reality check: Doing one thing and its opposite simultaneously has always been possible for climate change. However, the International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems
Service (IERS) informs us that the Earth slowed down from the start of measurements in 1962 to 1972, and sped up between 1972 and 2005. Since 2006 it is slowing down again. It shows the same inconsistency as global warming.
2007 Prof. Wieslaw Maslowski from Dept. Oceanography of the US
Navy predicted an ice-free Arctic Ocean in summer 2013, and said the prediction was conservative.
2007 NASA climate scientist Jay Zwally predicted that the Arctic Ocean could be nearly ice-free at the end of summer in 2012.
2008 University of Manitoba Prof. David Barber predicted an ice-free North Pole for the first time in
history in 2008.
2010 Mark Serreze, director of the NSIDC predicts the Arctic will be ice free in the summer by 2030.
2007 IPCC AR4 says there is a very high likelihood that Himalayan glaciers will disappear by the year 2035 and perhaps sooner if the Earth keeps warming at the
current rate.
IPCC officials recanted the prediction in 2010 after it was revealed the source was not peer-reviewed. Previously they had criticized the Indian scientist that questioned the prediction and ignored an IPCC author than in 2006 warned the prediction was wrong.
1981 James Hansen, NASA scientist, predicted a global warming of “almost unprecedented magnitude” in the next century that might even be sufficient to melt and dislodge the ice cover of West Antarctica, eventually leading to a worldwide rise of 15 to 20 feet in the sea level. See here.
Reality check: Since 1993 (24 years) we have totaled 72 mm (3 inches) of sea level rise instead of the 4 feet that corresponds to one-fourth of a century. The alarming prediction is more than 94% wrong, so far. See here.
A NASA study, published in the Journal of Glaciology in 2015, claims that Antarctic ice mass is increasing. Antarctic sea ice reached a record extent in 2014."
https://climateilluminated.com/predi...edictions.html