US coasts sea level rise 10 to 12 inches by 2050

[masknfins]

Stop using weather forecasts, they're models built by scientists. Stop using bridoes, stress modeling used. Skeptics, have you even studied the basics behind these projections and, yes they will be wrong if action is taken. Hope for the best and plan for the worst.

[geoleo]

Originally Posted by S/V Illusion

The last time they produced a predication report in 2017, it turned out to be grossly exaggerated. Each and every prediction, including this one, is based on a set of assumptions. None of which are verifiable in advance. But that won’t stop the paranoia.

Many people love Paranoia and being skeered. Just note all the apootilictic movies out for those who love being skeered

[geoleo]

True Believers is a great book by a great man Eric Hoffer

[Montanan]

Originally Posted by geoleo

0.31ft is 3 3/4 inches. Montanan sez 12 inches. Someting rotten in Denmark.

Okay, GeoLeo:

I would be glad to discuss Denmark; Shall we? Or perhaps you could propose yet another location.

The Danish Meteorological Institute, the Danish Coastal Authority (DMI), and the Royal Danish Administration for Navigation (links) collectively manage 40 tide gauges. DMI has ten locations with more than 100 years of sea level data. A total of 29 tide gauges have recorded continuously for more than 70 years. Overall, there are over 60 locations throughout Denmark where water levels are continuously measured.

There are multiple projected scenarios for future sea level rise around Denmark. Most of these models project up to the year 2100. Models created by the Danish Meteorological Institute estimate a total of .3 to .6 meters in sea level rise around Denmark during the 21st century. However, when accounting for all environmental uncertainty, the sea could rise anywhere from .1 to 1.4 meters. This value will depend largely on the future of human carbon emissions. To make things simpler, a sea level rise of a ½ meter by 2100 on the coasts of Denmark is often assumed for rough calculations.

A factor in sea levels around Denmark is land uplift. The entire land mass of Denmark is slowly experiencing a springing-back effect from the old pressure of ice age glaciers. This effect is called isostatic uplift, and it lessens the effects of sea level rise. The uplift is more pronounced in the north of Denmark, where the land has risen around .15 to .20 meters during the 21st century. During that same time, the southern part of the country [the part least impacted by the weight of glaciers] has risen around .05 to .10 meters. Considering isostatic uplift is important in calculating sea level rise in Denmark. Variable land uplift implies variable sea level rise. Parts of Northern Jutland are even experiencing sea level drop because of such rapid land uplift.

Another important factor is storm surges: At any given moment, the water level in Denmark is variable because of a combination of sea tides and wind conditions. Tides cause sea levels to change by the hour. Wind patterns are largely seasonal. A storm surge can raise the sea level by five to six meters in a matter of minutes. Storm surges are Denmark’s most direct threat from climate change. Thermal expansion, gravitation, and isostatic uplift are all considered when calculating how storm surges are affecting Denmark. In essence, rising sea levels are causing more frequent and severe storm surges in Denmark. It has been calculated that a ½ meter rise in sea levels will increase the frequency of extreme storm surges by a factor of five.

Danish cities which are found at the base of fjords (narrow sea inlets) or at the mouths of rivers are at particular risk from rising sea levels and increased runoff from precipitation. Increased precipitation of up to 40% is expected in Denmark due to climate change. Rising sea levels will block the runoff, increasing chances of dangerous flooding.

The sea level will increase ever more rapidly towards the end of this century. The sea level will increase the least in northern Jutland and most in the southwestern part of Jutland. This difference is due to the isostatic uplift from the most recent Ice Age. Storm surges are expected to increase by as much as the mean sea level. Thus the water level will be higher for both the frequent events with raised water levels as well as for the more rare, high storm surges. What today is a 20-year storm surge, could occur every year or every other year in the future.

The mean sea level around Denmark has increased by approximately 2 millimetres annually since 1900. That be a cumulative 7.87 inches

Indeed climate change is making things be rotten in many locations, same planet and all.

https://en.klimatilpasning.dk/knowle...in-sea-levels/

Sea levels and climate change
Global warming is unequivocal according to the UN IPCC, and many of the climate changes observed since the 1950s are unprecedented. This has significance for the water levels in the world's oceans, and for the levels along the Danish coast.

Figure 1 attached below: The absolute mean sea level around Denmark in metres 1900-2100, relative to mean sea level in the reference period 1986-2005. The grey-shaded area for the years 1900-2012 shows the observed, annual mean sea level measured by Danish water gauges, adjusted for isostatic uplift. The thin blue curve for the years 2012-2100 shows the IPCC's best estimate of mean sea level in the North Sea for the RCP4.5 scenario, and the shaded area indicates the uncertainty for this scenario. The dotted line shows the Danish Meteorological Institute's estimate of an upper limit for sea level rise for use in uncertainty calculations. The mean value and uncertainties are shown on the right in the figure for the four IPCC scenarios. Source: Danish Meteorological Institute.

[geoleo]

Isnt it strange that the most feverent Global Warming are leftists,socialists communists.Why is this?

[Montanan]

Originally Posted by geoleo

Isnt it strange that the most feverent Global Warming are leftists,socialists communists.Why is this?

Citations????

Do you have any answers or just merely attempts at quips?

Perhaps facts could be submitted.

[dannc]

Originally Posted by JoetheCobbler

...
They are , however, quite aware of the coastal erosion due to waive action, Storm and current.
Just like every inlet along the East coast USA,the sea bed is not static it drifts and silts like sand dunes in the desert.
The sky isn't falling.

Back in the 1980's when I was living in South Florida, there was a professor at University of Florida who was an expert in coastal erosion and such. He was always talking about how the man made interventions along the coast line were leading to beach loss. Inlets, jetties, and sea walls prevent the natural flow of sand along the coastline and cause erosion.

At the time, there was beach erosion all around Florida, and I doubt that has changed, except in the Big Bend in western Florida. There are numerous parks in the Big Bend, little development, and few man made structures affecting the movement of sand. Beaches were growing in the Big Bend area.

Saying that there is sand movement on a barrier island is like complaining there is no water in a desert.

Interestingly, if one moves up the coastline to NC, surprise, surprise, the barrier islands are moving. Bald Head Island has an old decommissioned light house called Old Baldy. Old Baldy was built after the first light house was torn down because of beach erosion. This happened around 1800ish. At one point, it was thought Old Baldy was going to be lost because of fast paced erosion that was occurring. But for some reason, the erosion stopped and Old Baldy remains.

Bald Head Island(BHI) which has also been called Smith Island, is no longer an island. BHI sits at the end of the Cape Fear River and Cape Fear is on the eastern tip of of BHI. There used to be a second channel, named New channel, that ran along Federal Point that lies between BHI and Wilmington NC. During the US Civil War, Wilmington was a major port and the New channel was used to run the Union blockade. To protect shipping using the New channel Fort Fisher was built. This fort, like the fortifications on BHI, were made of sand. Tis what was available.

Parts of these fortifications have been lost to the sea. On BHI, the same erosion that almost took out Old Baldy did destroy some Civil War fortifications. However, on the sound side of the islands, the fortifications are still present along the water.

At Fort Fisher, the state built a road and dug up the offshore Coquina rock to use as the road bed. This eventually caused massive erosion of the Fort Fisher fortifications and the state had to build a sea wall to save the fort and the road. The Corps of Engineers filled in the New channel which connected BHI to Federal point which means BHI is no longer an island.

Union Forces attacked Fort Fisher twice. The first attempt was a failure. the second attack succeeded. The landing at Fort Fisher was the largest amphibious invasion the US had done up to that time and would not be exceeded in scope until WW II.

The landing was done up the coast from Fort Fisher. Union forces moved across the peninsula, wheeled to the left and attacked the land side of the Fort. The landings took place were there is a formation of Coquina rock. This formation is still in place and matches what the Federal maps/charts created in the Civil War. I have an atlas of Civil War maps and charts and the Coguina rocks is clearly shown. I have photos of the rock outcrop when we stayed at a rental on that beach. Kinda interesting to be in a structure, built on a beach, that a bit over a century ago, witnessed the largest concentration of US Naval force that had been seen at that point in time.

Those structures that are built on the beach used during the Union landing, have water that comes up to the foundation, and in a few cases, UNDER the porches at high tide. I do not think the Coquina rock as moved but some of the sand surely has moved.

Later,
Dan

[jackdale]

Originally Posted by captmikem

Now he has two.... Maybe he knows something you don't.

That property is being developed by Marty Nesbitt and is "protected" by a sea wall. Whether Obama is an owner has not been established.


https://www.propublica.org/article/o...ouse-loopholes

BTW - How many climate scientists own oceanfront property?

[jackdale]

Originally Posted by Taichungman

The oceans are rising which I believe is factual and a normal cycle. I don't believe there is anything that man can do to stop that. All we can do is adapt which man has done for eons. The Earth has been covered by water in the past and probably will be in the future. So, don't wait; go out and buy that boat asap.

Natural cycles would have us cooling, not warming.

[Ericson38]

Originally Posted by captlloyd

Read a quote from a Miami Beach hotel owner. “ we have about twenty years until we have water in our lobbies during very high tides”. The area that he is talking about has already raised the roadbeds by about 6 inches due to flooding. Y’all can dispute science all you want, I would guess water lapping around your butt will finally convince you.

I understand this, having grown up in south Texas and having our house go awash on Galveston Bay in 1970. In that instance, the Exxon Refinery in Baytown was pulling oil out of the ground and the ground sank a few feet all around the upper bay.

In south Florida, there is also land subsidence, about 2 mm a year.

https://piahs.copernicus.org/article....%2C%202016%29.

[jackdale]

Originally Posted by captmikem

Well, yes, the North Atlantic has been referred to as "The Pond".
WhatsMyElevation lists the elevation of their home as being 3 feet above sea level.

President Obama Buys Home on Edgartown Great Pond

The latitude and longitude coordinates (GPS waypoint) of Edgartown Great Pond are 41.3598619 (North), -70.556778 (West) and the approximate elevation is 3 feet (1 meters) above sea level.

Then add the elevation of the house.

Notice the barrier beach?

[Ericson38]

California is worried about sea level rise now.

https://usclocknews.com/us-news/risi...es-new-alarms/

But LA tide gage shows-

https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sl...tml?id=9410660

[Orion Jim]

https://geographyandyou.com/when-is-...t-ice-age-due/

In ten to twelve thousand years from now the earth will experience its eighteenth ice age. What we are seeing is a natural occurrence. Settle down Beavis…..

[Montanan]

Originally Posted by geoleo

According to local surveyors entire Miami Beach has sunk, and will continue to sink, This is what you get when you put hundreds of huge heavy hi rise buildings on a swamp.

Yes, the land is slowly sinking in parts of Florida, but the sea is rising much faster and poses a far greater threat of flooding

https://www.theinvadingsea.com/2020/...t-of-flooding/

"Sea-level rise and land subsidence can both increase the risk of flooding in coastal areas. Measurements show that the rate of land subsidence in Florida varies from place to place but is generally less than 0.5 millimeters per year.

At about 1.7 millimeters per year, the global average rate of sea-level rise over the course of the 20th century was more than three times that of land subsidence in Florida. What’s more, for the last 25 years, the global rate of sea-level rise has been even higher—in excess of 3 millimeters per year. It doesn’t sound like much, but when you add it up, sea levels have risen by an average of more than 3 inches globally since 1993. Those extra inches have contributed to a fivefold rise in the frequency of high-tide flooding across the nation, including in Florida and other states in the Southeast.

Only in limited areas— such as specific parts of Miami Beach that were built with filled sediment that is slowly compacting over time — does the rate of subsidence approach parity with that of sea-level rise. With the passage of SB 178, Florida’s Department of Environmental Protection will be tasked with developing a standard for how future flood risk is assessed for potential construction projects. A key part of that standard will be ensuring that the latest science on sea-level rise is incorporated into each study. Fortunately, the Southeast Florida Regional Climate Change Compact has updated its sea-level rise projections for Florida using the best available data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Those projections indicate that the state can expect 21 to 54 inches of sea-level rise by 2070.

According to research my colleagues and I have done, that amount of sea-level rise would put more than half of Miami Beach’s homes at risk of flooding 26 times per year or more. For comparison, at its current average rate for the state, land subsidence in the next 50 years would add up to just one inch—a small fraction of what the state expects as a result of climate change."
. . .

Tens of thousands of homes in Florida are at risk of chronic flooding in the coming decades. In implementing SB 178, the state will be helping to ensure that future public development does not add to the problem by putting even more homes, businesses, and facilities in harm’s way. Updating the state’s flood maps to incorporate future sea-level rise and allocating resources to building the flood resilience of Florida communities would also help the state to prepare for what lies ahead. While measuring land subsidence rates could help to refine communities’ plans, it must not distract from the truly existential threat that climate change-driven sea-level rise presents to the residents of Florida’s coasts."

The image below shows the change in sea level at Virginia Key in fractions of feet since the 1930s. (CREDIT: NOAA Tides & Currents)

[jackdale]

Originally Posted by geoleo

Isnt it strange that the most feverent Global Warming are leftists,socialists communists.Why is this?

My favorite climate scientists

Kerry Emanuel - registered Republican

Richard Alley - registered Republican

Katharine Hayhoe - Evangelical Christian

Very strange