Trade winds cruising in an El Nino year

[sneuman]

Assuming that one had planned to begin an extended passage in Nov. from the U.S. East Coast and assuming that the current forecasts for an El Nino hold true, I know that:

Hurricane activity will likely be suppressed in the Atlantic
But in the Pacific, the effect seems less clear. Will the trade winds crap out? Will it be even hotter in the tropics? What, if any effect, will the warmer sea temperatures in the eastern and central Pacific have on the seasonal patterns there as regards conditions in general and cyclones in particular?

Anyone here done the Pacific in an El Nino year?

[sneuman]

Um, Ok.

[zeehag]

el nino was last year.
this year is super el nino.
all a good sailor can do is watch our weather-- we have so many sites to peruse... google wind and passage weather should tell you fairly readily what is happening daily with trades and general condiotions out sailing.
keep your eye on the weather, and make up your own mind. good luck with this, as no one is able to pre predict anything, as you know... and everyone will have two pennies to toss into the ring.

[sneuman]

Originally Posted by zeehag

el nino was last year.
this year is super el nino.
all a good sailor can do is watch our weather-- we have so many sites to peruse... google wind and passage weather should tell you fairly readily what is happening daily with trades and general condiotions out sailing.
keep your eye on the weather, and make up your own mind. good luck with this, as no one is able to pre predict anything, as you know... and everyone will have two pennies to toss into the ring.

I disagree. Short-term predictions for weather are, on average, extremely accurate these days. Long-term predictions of weather have always been more guess than anything else, and any meteorologist worth his or her salt will tell you the reliability more than 10 days out drops off considerably.

Even so, there are some generalities that can be made about how things tend to unfold in El Nino years, which is what I'm interested in hearing.

[zeehag]

ok sneumann so you have been thru a super el nino before,. is a good thing.
then you know the answer to your question you posed
\ have fun here in el nino land... is a lot of fun when intensity grows beyond all expectations.. will you be out there in it all? or at a desk wondering what it will do to your trade winds... mebbe a severely higher ace rating for epac basin??
much of what el nino brings is way beyond lack of trade winds.
el nino does much more than merely dissipate trade winds....
have fun and whether you sail or not, keep your eyes on this one.
you are on east coast... keep your eye on your passage weather and google earth wind to see what you have asked. azores are already wicked and east coast has already received an early cyclonic gift, definitely early.
nw pac is also experiencing early cyclonic activity.
remember i am out here in this stuff, and have been watching this weather patterns for many decades as well as the occurrances in ocean when folks find the seas and winds are way too huge for them and abandon their sailing shiplets in mid pacific when suddenly they find selves sailing into a huricane instead of smooth seas and normal winds. yeah there was one of those last year.. came from san francisco was on way to hawaii when a coming out of no where cat 3 huricane slammed em as they sailed into it..
but, then, as you already know all of this, you didnt need to make a question in public, did you??
and, as this is not merely an el nino year, but a SUPER el nino following an el nino, we may find some surprises out here.
just keep your eyes open and your weather map handy.

[sneuman]

Originally Posted by zeehag

ok sneumann so you have been thru a super el nino before,. is a good thing. then you know th eanswer to your question you posed and mebbe already knew th e answer... lol
\ have funE here in el nino land... is a lot of fun when intensity grows beyonbd all expectations.. will you be ou tthere in it all? or at a desk wondering what it will do to your porecious trade winds... mebbe a severely higher ace rating for epac basin??
much of what el nino brings is way beyond lack of trade winds.
el nino does much more than merely dissipate trade winds....
have fun and whether you sail or not, keep your eyes on this one.

Ok, Zee. That's not what I said at all. I disagree with your premise than "no one can predict anything." That's not the same as saying I know what happens during an El Nino. I think I have stated the precise opposite.

So, you can drop the snark.

[zeehag]

snark?? rodlmffao. just stating facts mon.
a super el nino following a regular el nino is a new occurrance. have fun with it.
i am out here in this stuff and you still cannot manage to uunderstand many parts of el nino are just as new to meteorologists as they are to us.
last year, el nino year, we on epacc had 21 storms with names.
normal years we get only 19.
so.. sit back n watch n go sail next season, or take what we get as we get it.
odile was not predicted to be a cat 4 when hit cabo..lol but it was. also wasnt expected to hit dead on cabo -- was supposed to head up middle of soc.. lol what a mess that would have been.
odile also wasnt predicted by anyone other than the storm chasers i follow to grow beyond a cat 3. she rapidly intensified off coast of cabo corrientes then swung into cabo san lucas like a freight train and backhanded bitchslapped la paz biig time causing death and destruction.
i expect more of the same stuff.
most of the named storms early last season went out to hawaii and beyond..
could well occur in a similar manner this year- we dont know where the storms will go yet, nor does anyone definitively know there will or willnot be trade winds in a given season, el nino or not.
keep your eyes open.

[Stevens 47]

I have read some of the posting by DryArmour on sailing anarchy hear is his latest.

"It is looking like another peppy year in the Eastern and Central Pacific. Of particular interest (To me anyway) is an odd influx of mid and high level moisture that has been streaming up from below Cabo and into Southern California over the last ten days or so. This is a pattern I have not seen in the 30 years I have lived here. Is this a harbinger of more tropical weather to come for the Southland? I sure hope so. We could use the rain although a longer period monsoonal influence instead of an all out tropical system would be better as this area is not set up well to take a lot of rain over a short period of time as it all just runs off into the Pacific Ocean.

The Summer North Pacific high apparently lost its calendar a couple of years ago and has been vacationing non stop here in California. The ridge to the SE of the high has been relentless at keeping wet weather out of our area and the drought is a major problem. We will have to see how this hurricane season plays out in the Pacific and based on the current upper level patterns I am perplexed at what to forecast. I will monitor the early season behavior of the macro influencers and try and figure it out from there.

More later if I feel confident I understand what is happening." from Hurricane Season 2015- Last call - Sailing Anarchy - Sailing Anarchy Forums

Its raining and cold in SD this morning.

[barnakiel]

Yep.

It was very light and then from FP onwards it was very rainy. We hated it.

b.

[anacapaisland42]

I find this site most interesting, don't know how useful but it does give very good wind patterns

earth :: a global map of wind, weather, and ocean conditions

Bill

[sneuman]

Bill -- I love that site. Have stared at it a lot since discovering it a few years back.

If it wraps up by the end of the fall, as predicted, would the Pacific be "normal" again by (northern hemisphere) Spring 2016?

[anacapaisland42]

Goodness knows these days ... 2 1/2 weeks ago our lake was frozen, today the temperature will be 30C (86F)
Bill


If it wraps up by the end of the fall, as predicted, would the Pacific be "normal" again by (northern hemisphere) Spring 2016?[/QUOTE]

[zengirl]

Originally Posted by anacapaisland42

I find this site most interesting, don't know how useful but it does give very good wind patterns

earth :: a global map of wind, weather, and ocean conditions

Bill

That is just soooo cool!! Thanks.

[jdaltonpe]

I crossed the South Pacific in '94 which was a strong El Nino year and do remember sitting it out, waiting for wind a couple of times. One of those times I got wind and plenty of it in the form of a black horizon approaching from the west. Got all sail down and the boat buttoned up just before it hit, putting the rail under, water coming in through the galley sink, etc. Rather terrifying being a newby sailing solo and all. It blew out of the west for several days and I lost ground but the trades did seem to become more consistent the further west I got. Kind of a double whammy because I missed the best powder in years back home in Colorado.

[belle-isle]

Just would like to check on why this question ?

The situation right now is definitely not a strong El Niño as can be seen on El Ni?o and La Ni?a Years and Intensities and on https://metbob.wordpress.com/ . It is not even a standard El Niño, just a very weak one, so there is hardly any effect on the weather right now, and hasn't been since 2011. The Madden-Julian oscillation (which has a much shorter period) is a much more defining parameter at present.

Just making sure the OP is aware, that while the question remains valid in theory, the case right now is definitely not that situation.