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Old 06-03-2022, 10:47   #1
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SHTF & spring/summertime crossing to South/Middle America

Hi,

never thought I'd open a thread like this or would have to think of these eventuallities, but when you suddenly have a lot of nighttime jets passing overhead and follow the news you get weary, at least I do.

Apart from the jets it's calm here on the German Polish border, still we are going through possible scenarios.
Let's suppose we do not immediately end up in a full nuclear scenario but a more conventional war between Russia and Nato. Horrible thought.

The boat is in Brittany and is launchable but needs a few more things fixed.
Initially (before Ukraine!) we thought about crossing to Spain in June or July for a leisurely cruise along the coastline.

Due to it still being early spring we would want to wait as long as we can with crossing Biscay.

For an Atlantic crossing the best time seems December from Canaries until June.
So we might still make it in time for that.
We will cross only in an emergency if it really turns sour here.

But, and that would be the question, what if things are turning foul in summer instead of spring how do we go across the Atlantic then? Hurricane season is the added issue then.

Sail along the African Atlantic coast say to Liberia and then head over the Equator towards say Fortaleza or Recife?

Please don't turn this into a political thread but focus instead on the options to sail to South America from Europe in summer during Hurricane season.

Thanks.
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Old 06-03-2022, 11:12   #2
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Re: SHTF & spring/summertime crossing to South/Middle America

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Originally Posted by Franziska View Post
Hi,

never thought I'd open a thread like this or would have to think of these eventuallities, but when you suddenly have a lot of nighttime jets passing overhead and follow the news you get weary, at least I do.

Apart from the jets it's calm here on the German Polish border, still we are going through possible scenarios.

Let's suppose we do not immediately end up in a full nuclear scenario but a more conventional war between Russia and Nato. Horrible thought.
I don't know if it's possible for a wider war between NATO and Russia to be just "conventional" . So this conflict has to end in Ukraine, as soon as possible. I'm grateful for the way Europe, and particularly Germany, have stepped up. A united west should be able to convince Russia (if not Putin).

Let's hear others describe the route options... but IF things get worse, there will be other considerations, like borders closing, that will make any exit from Europe more difficult.

Best wishes and stay safe.
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Old 06-03-2022, 12:27   #3
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Re: SHTF & spring/summertime crossing to South/Middle America

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I don't know if it's possible for a wider war between NATO and Russia to be just "conventional" . So this conflict has to end in Ukraine, as soon as possible. I'm grateful for the way Europe, and particularly Germany, have stepped up. A united west should be able to convince Russia (if not Putin).

Let's hear others describe the route options... but IF things get worse, there will be other considerations, like borders closing, that will make any exit from Europe more difficult.

Best wishes and stay safe.
==============================================
Franziska
Sorry to hear about your concerns,
agree on just a short term we are back to 1939.

Have you thought about taking the northern routes with a Newfoundland,Nova Scotia points of arrival?
If earlier southern looks better for the Caribbean, as the threat of earlier tropical storms arise, the northern routes look better, however the pilot charts indicate prevailing westerlies making it a real challenge.
But with the weather patterns so dramatically changing, not sure how much guidance we have, last year I got hammered by tropical storm Ana in May!
Believe you are wise, trying to move your boat with the caveat if things get out of control it more likely will not matter.
Just finish corresponding with fiends in Israel and Argentina, almost everybody is unnerved.
take care
David
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Old 06-03-2022, 12:30   #4
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Re: SHTF & spring/summertime crossing to South/Middle America

sorry, overlooked your desire to reach Southamerica.
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Old 06-03-2022, 12:46   #5
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Re: SHTF & spring/summertime crossing to South/Middle America

If it became an urgent matter, like they say in the old cowboy movies, "time to get the hell out of Dodge", then I would consider a summer crossing. Not of course the preference but could be safely doable.

My ideas. First hurricanes in mid/late summer usually begin with a tropical wave coming off the coast of Africa around 5-10 N. The winds in the tropical wave are usually moderate so if you hit one very, very unlikely to be a survival level event. Since the trade winds start a bit north of that you could take the trades east until roughly 2/3s of the way across the Atlantic, check weather for any depressions coming your way and when you see a gap, turn south to cross the hurricane tracks until you get far enough south to be out of the danger zone.
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Old 06-03-2022, 13:07   #6
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Re: SHTF & spring/summertime crossing to South/Middle America

A family member lives close to the border with Ukraine,i made it very clear to them to keep their car full of fuel, have some spare fuel,food,camping cooker and water in the trunk,also to pack a grab bag with a few different currency's,warm clothes,ID,road map etc,enough to get to France or Uk and able to leave at a moments notice.
Being ahead of the game,could save valuable time.

South of Biscay you could quite easily sail south at any time of year in moderate weather along the European and African coasts,then jump off from the lattitude of Gambia staying south of 10 degrees then along the N coast of South America untill safe haven is found in Trinidad or French Guiana.
This will keep you clear of hurricanes,this could be done at any time of year.

Considerations will be countries along the way that might be aligned with non NATO countries,such as Mauritania,Brazil and Venezuela,or unstable regimes.
Bare in mind,that the US dollar ,cash might be the only currency with any value and Atm and other electronic transfer systems from Europe impossible.
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Old 06-03-2022, 13:45   #7
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Re: SHTF & spring/summertime crossing to South/Middle America

and on second?third? thought, if this situation is not resolved in a couple of months, not sure if we need to worry.
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Old 06-03-2022, 21:24   #8
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Re: SHTF & spring/summertime crossing to South/Middle America

@ Franziska:

I don't know any of this from experience, but I would plan for a long voyage, missing most of the normal cruising destinations, and sail out south, till you are south of 22 S. Then, if we still are able to get wx forecasts via SSB, then plan your crossing to the Straits of Magellan. See if you can find a hard copy of a book or long article about Atlantic Weather by the seasons and hemispheres, and brush up on your celestial. You'll need charts and one of those cheaters to project celestial data forward. You'll want to have a water maker. If the was goes nuclear, you won't want to catch rain for a while. Less electronics and more prior to WWII technology. Before you decide to do it, be clear in your heart that you may never see home again, nor hear your native tongue. If this is an unsurmountable problem for you, sell the cat. You'll need a different plan.

So sorry for our troubles, now...

Ann
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Old 06-03-2022, 23:20   #9
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Re: SHTF & spring/summertime crossing to South/Middle America

Quote:
Originally Posted by Franziska View Post
Hi,

never thought I'd open a thread like this or would have to think of these eventuallities, but when you suddenly have a lot of nighttime jets passing overhead and follow the news you get weary, at least I do.

Apart from the jets it's calm here on the German Polish border, still we are going through possible scenarios.
Let's suppose we do not immediately end up in a full nuclear scenario but a more conventional war between Russia and Nato. Horrible thought.

The boat is in Brittany and is launchable but needs a few more things fixed.
Initially (before Ukraine!) we thought about crossing to Spain in June or July for a leisurely cruise along the coastline.

Due to it still being early spring we would want to wait as long as we can with crossing Biscay.

For an Atlantic crossing the best time seems December from Canaries until June.
So we might still make it in time for that.
We will cross only in an emergency if it really turns sour here.

But, and that would be the question, what if things are turning foul in summer instead of spring how do we go across the Atlantic then? Hurricane season is the added issue then.

Sail along the African Atlantic coast say to Liberia and then head over the Equator towards say Fortaleza or Recife?

Please don't turn this into a political thread but focus instead on the options to sail to South America from Europe in summer during Hurricane season.

Thanks.
Just head south from the Canaries or the Cabo Verdes. No need to go as far as Liberia but find the sweet spot in the ITCZ which from memory lies towards the Brasilian side. Its pretty well documented in assorted 'Pilots'.
https://earth.nullschool.net/#curren...9.33,11.76,814

I spent more than a few years running from Northern Europe and the Med to the South Atlantic - never had a worry about hurricanes on that side of the N Atlantic.

Landfall - between Natal and Recife.

Final destination? You could do a whole lot worse than Uruguay.
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Old 07-03-2022, 02:42   #10
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Re: SHTF & spring/summertime crossing to South/Middle America

Thank you everyone. I really hope I worry to much. Unfortunately I tend to occasionally.
But as Atoll says above being ahead of the game is a good plan.

The plan I make is for a conventional or localised nuclear war at my current location. Hope to be already far enough away if that happens.
It will be horrible at the highest level should that happen. At least we would still have Lady Rover as our home if we make it far enough west before one would hope.
If it's a full blown nuclear war, we probably do not need any plans at all anymore. Not sure if I have the guts for it, but if that happens & I'd be in a location severely hit I'd probably commit suicide before dying from radiation or starvation if not dead in the first moment.

Thanks for your advice will get some paper charts for the larger area around Recife. Have a good book on Astro already need to find a plastic sextant (used but functional, low budget).
Will print the pilot charts I have as well as look for any good coastal info for getting south after leaving Europe.
Still hope we can follow our dream the normal way.

Regarding finance, I was thinking of a mixture, some in our bank account, some in cash (USD & Euro) and possibly some as Crypto on a hardware wallet.
The latter because it's easy to conceal and can be retrieved about everywhere by sending it to a local who is into crypto. I'm aware that it's market is highly volotile and due to this we have only FIAT with our crypto exchange at the moment.
The tricky part is that Coinbase works with an Estonian bank. I have written to their support to hear what happens to FIAT in a Coinbase account if Estonia goes up in flames.
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Old 07-03-2022, 07:11   #11
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Re: SHTF & spring/summertime crossing to South/Middle America

The northern route is the one we'll be taking hopefully this summer to get the boat back to Canada. The Longest off shore part of the trip is from Iceland to Newfoundland. about 10 days. If one goes to Greenland then 7 days to the top of Labrador. Will be colder than the southern route but when you get to this side guarantied warm welcome. Plus side with the icebergs floating around Fresh water is no problem Also once your in NF it's day sailing .
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Old 07-03-2022, 07:21   #12
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Re: SHTF & spring/summertime crossing to South/Middle America

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The northern route is the one we'll be taking hopefully this summer to get the boat back to Canada. The Longest off shore part of the trip is from Iceland to Newfoundland. about 10 days. If one goes to Greenland then 7 days to the top of Labrador. Will be colder than the southern route but when you get to this side guarantied warm welcome. Plus side with the icebergs floating around Fresh water is no problem Also once your in NF it's day sailing .
====================================
I suggested the northern option earlier, thank you for your insight, I live in North Carolina and my plan is to return to Nova Scotia again, I do not do well on hot/humid environs and find the Maritime Provinces just about right!!
Hopefully will be able to do the Prince George area and then ??
These areas offer all I can think of a leisure summer cruise, beauty, less crowded and the allure of the Canadian people, hard to top.

Sayonara
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Old 07-03-2022, 07:50   #13
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Re: SHTF & spring/summertime crossing to South/Middle America

Thanks again,

after researching a bit more I'd think we try, as suggested, to aim for Uruguay if it's really bad.
From what I can find it's political stability, corruption and so on astonishing similar to what I'm used from Germany.
Bit warmer too which is in our case a plus, we prefer warmer climates if there is a choice.

Still, let's hope we are not forced to decide on our course by political factors.

Regarding CRYPTO vs FIAT, I'm still waiting on a response from Coinbase.
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Old 07-03-2022, 08:28   #14
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Re: SHTF & spring/summertime crossing to South/Middle America

Quote:
Originally Posted by Franziska View Post
Thank you everyone. I really hope I worry to much. Unfortunately I tend to occasionally.
But as Atoll says above being ahead of the game is a good plan.

The plan I make is for a conventional or localised nuclear war at my current location. Hope to be already far enough away if that happens.
It will be horrible at the highest level should that happen. At least we would still have Lady Rover as our home if we make it far enough west before one would hope.
If it's a full blown nuclear war, we probably do not need any plans at all anymore. Not sure if I have the guts for it, but if that happens & I'd be in a location severely hit I'd probably commit suicide before dying from radiation or starvation if not dead in the first moment.

Thanks for your advice will get some paper charts for the larger area around Recife. Have a good book on Astro already need to find a plastic sextant (used but functional, low budget).
Will print the pilot charts I have as well as look for any good coastal info for getting south after leaving Europe.
Still hope we can follow our dream the normal way.

Regarding finance, I was thinking of a mixture, some in our bank account, some in cash (USD & Euro) and possibly some as Crypto on a hardware wallet.
The latter because it's easy to conceal and can be retrieved about everywhere by sending it to a local who is into crypto. I'm aware that it's market is highly volotile and due to this we have only FIAT with our crypto exchange at the moment.
The tricky part is that Coinbase works with an Estonian bank. I have written to their support to hear what happens to FIAT in a Coinbase account if Estonia goes up in flames.
I doubt the use of nuclear weapons as this would be akin to using chemical or biological warfare,without first having an antidote ,as it would cause just as much collateral damage to yourself,destroy infrastructure and wealth that you might want to loot or extort after a conflict!

I would suspect our anti-hero wants to flood the EU with millions of middle east and eastern european refugees causing the maximum amount of economic damage to western Europe with the ability to turn the energy hot tap up and down.

Having evacuated the Ukranian people to the West,he will then have secured his western border , the Black sea , the natural resources of a depopulated Ukraine and gained huge Crimean oil reserves , he will maintain a stalemate with Nato,and reinforce his new iron curtain and retire to his super yacht in the seaside resort of Odessa.

Turkey will go back to hosting tourists and keep the Black sea open in return for some Russian aid with their currency,oil ,gas and Black sea superyacht canal.

Brexit Britain will maintain Her place in the world safely behind the English channel whilst congratulating themselves on how cleaver Jacob Rees Mog,Nigel Farage and the ERG were in securing the offshore banking system to protect the looted wealth of Kings,dictators,Russian oligarchs,despots,politicians,trafficker's and aristocrats on both sides of the dispute.

America will most probably look east , south and internally.

China will most probably wait and see,let the dust settle then discuss the last war with Japan , Taiwan and Russia
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Old 07-03-2022, 08:39   #15
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Re: SHTF & spring/summertime crossing to South/Middle America

Two thirds of Russian land forces are bogged down in Ukraine. The Russian air force can't even protect their own forces fighting in Ukraine. Russia has no conventional capacity to fight NATO. None. An attack on NATO would quickly see the Russian air force destroyed followed by the ground forces.

Putin has put himself into a hole with no way out so his resorting to chemical or nuclear weapons is a concern. The real question is, will Russian forces carry out orders that would lead to a nuclear exchange? Will his Praetorian Guards continue to protect him or overthrow him? If Putin was not paranoid before, he sure the heck better be now. He had better stay in the bunker he is reported to be living in the Ural mountains.

There are reports that the marine units in the Black Sea mutinied and would not land near Odessa. Did they really mutiny or did they decide a landing would be too costly? If they did mutiny, Putin has bigger problems since revolutions in Russia have started with the Navy. One has to wonder about the convoy stopped outside of Kiev. Is the stoppage only because of supply and equipment issues, or are their command and control problems?

Russia has no conventional capacity to attack NATO and get very far.

Having said that, if I was living in a border area with Russia or the Ukraine, I would keep the vehicles full of fuel, make sure we had plenty of food that did not require power, and keep the lots of water stored. We do this when hurricanes and winter storms are a threat.

If the war spreads, and became a nuclear exchange, get below the equator ASAP.

Later,
Dan
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