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Old 07-03-2022, 10:12   #16
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Re: SHTF & spring/summertime crossing to South/Middle America

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Originally Posted by dannc View Post
Two thirds of Russian land forces are bogged down in Ukraine. The Russian air force can't even protect their own forces fighting in Ukraine. Russia has no conventional capacity to fight NATO. None. An attack on NATO would quickly see the Russian air force destroyed followed by the ground forces.

Putin has put himself into a hole with no way out so his resorting to chemical or nuclear weapons is a concern. The real question is, will Russian forces carry out orders that would lead to a nuclear exchange? Will his Praetorian Guards continue to protect him or overthrow him? If Putin was not paranoid before, he sure the heck better be now. He had better stay in the bunker he is reported to be living in the Ural mountains.

There are reports that the marine units in the Black Sea mutinied and would not land near Odessa. Did they really mutiny or did they decide a landing would be too costly? If they did mutiny, Putin has bigger problems since revolutions in Russia have started with the Navy. One has to wonder about the convoy stopped outside of Kiev. Is the stoppage only because of supply and equipment issues, or are their command and control problems?

Russia has no conventional capacity to attack NATO and get very far.

Having said that, if I was living in a border area with Russia or the Ukraine, I would keep the vehicles full of fuel, make sure we had plenty of food that did not require power, and keep the lots of water stored. We do this when hurricanes and winter storms are a threat.

If the war spreads, and became a nuclear exchange, get below the equator ASAP.

Later,
Dan
Our anti hero has the whole summer to starve out the resistance and create humanitarian corridors to the EU ,thus achieving his first aim of creating a refugee crisis in Europe,whilst NATO looks on.
He has no intention of fighting NATO.

Those bogged down convoys are most probably "cannon fodder" to divert Ukranian troops and bait if the west were to lose its mind and escalate.

As for dissenters,they will most probably get a choice after being arrested,15 years in a gulag or a uniform and a rifle to go fight the Nasty's as more cannon fodder.

With martial law in Russia he could call up many millions of troops,the west knows this.

His playbook is right out of "The rise and fall of the Third Reich",william shirer,just substitute jews for ukaranian's in the text and throw in a bit of Sun Tzu
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Old 07-03-2022, 10:47   #17
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Re: SHTF & spring/summertime crossing to South/Middle America

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...

His playbook is right out of "The rise and fall of the Third Reich",william shirer,just substitute jews for ukaranian's in the text and throw in a bit of Sun Tzu
And how did the book end for the anti hero?

Russia is not Nazi Germany. Nazi Germany faced resistance in the Ukraine during WWII. Stalin killed millions of Ukrainians prior to WWII because they resisted and hated communism. After the war, the Ukrainians fought against the Soviets until the mid 1950's.

IF the Russians can take the Ukraine, it is highly questionable they can hold it, and it will cost them dearly in blood and treasure either way, especially with western weapons.

Russia has lost this war. They are done. The variables are when will Putin stop this madness or when will someone stop Putin, and how many people have to die until then.

The Russian people are going to suffer for this war, as will many people through out the world, especially in the middle east, the longer this goes on. How much they suffer gets back to how long does the war last. Putin better be watching to the east, his "buddy" Xi might have his back...

Later,
Dan
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