Pacific Hurricanes 2024

[GordMay]

Hurricane “Kristy” strengthened into a Category 4 storm, in the Pacific Ocean, on Wednesday [October 23], and is expected to continue strengthening, as it moves westward, over open waters, according to the National Hurricane Center.
A gradual turn toward the west-northwest, and northwest is expected on Friday, and into the weekend.
The storm's maximum sustained winds were near 155 mph, but, it is no threat to land, and it should become post-tropical, this weekend.

[GordMay]

The NHC’s Pacific 7-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook updates automatically.

Eastern North Pacific ➥ https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac&fdays=7

Central Pacific ➥ https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=cpac&fdays=7

[GordMay]

On Thursday, Hurricane “Kristy” strengthened into a Category 5 storm in the Pacific Ocean
Hurricane “Kristy” continues to churn away, in the Pacific Ocean, with an interesting fact, in it's formation - It’s the first category 5 storm, without El Niño, since “Celia”, in 2010.
This is a pretty interesting feat, as typically, with an El Niño, you have warmer water on the east Pacific, and also lower wind shear, lending to easier development, of stronger storms.
‘Kristy’ joins ‘Beryl’, and ‘Milton’, as the other Category 5 storms, so far in 2024.
‘Kristy’ can trace its origins back to [the “ghost” of] Tropical Storm ‘Nadine’, that made landfall in Belize, in mid-October. While ‘Nadine’ dissipated, the tropical energy traversed westwards across Mexico, to fuel Kristy, in the Pacific basin.
‘Kristy’ is expected to downgrade from its Category 5 status early Friday morning, continuing to downgrade, into a tropical depression, this weekend.

[barnakiel]

It seems scientists will have to rethink their beliefs of what kicks up a good hurricane.


Their 2024 pre-forecasts for 2024 seem all wrong. As was the case in 2023 too.


Perhaps AI will somewhat improve the models now that we know it is being so intensively sought by capitaists. I would believe that perhaps huge meteo data-sets are kind of alike big language data-sets. (?)



b.

[Montanan]

How many Pacific hurricanes travel west to become cyclones or typhoons?

[GordMay]

NOAA’s outlook for the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season predicted a 40% chance of a near-normal season, a 30% chance of an above-normal season, and a 30% chance of a below-normal season.
In may, 0f 2023, NOAA forecasted [with a 70% confidence] a range of 12 to 17 total named Atlantic storms. We had 20.
Of those, 5 to 9 could become hurricanes [we had 7], including 1 to 4 major hurricanes [we had 3].
The Atlantic basin produced the most named storms, of any El Nino [which can suppress Atlantic storm activity] influenced year, in the modern record.

Below, the real-time skill of seasonal forecast schemes used by different forecasters for over one decade is shown. Forecasts displayed here are issued by the Colorado State University (CSU), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Tropical Storm Risk (TSR). The period compared in this analysis is 2003-2015, which is a time period when all three forecast agencies were utilizing relatively similar techniques for issuing these predictions.
Skill ➥ https://seasonalhurricanepredictions...ormation/skill

NHC FORECAST VERIFICATION REPORT 2023 HURRICANE SEASON [Track & Intensity]
➥ https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verificatio...ation_2023.pdf

The 2023 eastern Pacific basin hurricane season was also above normal, with 17 named storms, of which 10 were hurricanes and eight of those major hurricanes.

[GordMay]

More Input Data Sources Lead to Higher Accuracy.

Recent improvements in weather forecasting have been quantified, in recent [2019] research [1], showing that modern 5-day weather forecasts are as accurate as 1-day forecasts, in 1980.
An explosion in the volume, and variety, of weather data has enabled dramatic improvements in forecast accuracy.
Whereas fifty years ago, weather data was mostly confined to temperature, barometric, and other readings, taken at scattered weather stations, weather station data today, is augmented with data, from a growing network of satellites, remote sensors, radar stations, weather balloons, and other sources.

[1] “Advances in weather prediction” ~ by R.B. Alley, K.A. Emanuel, and F. Zhang
➥ https://dspace.mit.edu/bitstream/han...v1.pdf?sequenc

“... Three key developments enabled these advances in forecast skill: Better and more extensive observations, better and much faster numerical prediction models, and vastly improved methods of assimilating observations into models...
... Because data are unavoidably spatially incomplete and uncertain, the state of the atmosphere at any time cannot be known exactly, producing forecast uncertainties that grow into the future. This “sensitivity to initial conditions” can never be overcome completely ...”