I can understand your interest in trying to anticipate the weather you're most likely to experience. Before my wife and I depart on a passage
, we can spend hours analyzing GRIBs, windy.com, pilot charts, refering to Jimmy Cornel's World Cruising Routes
and more but the bottom line is that weather, to quote a phrase from Bob McDavitt, a highly-regarded meteorologist in New Zealand
, is " . . . a mixture of patterns and chaos." You can't predict chaos. Of course, you choose passages where tropical storms can develop at the time of year when they're least likely to but, if you're going to cross oceans, you just have to be prepared to accept and deal with whatever it is that you're experiencing. I can't count how many times we've been on a passage
and the GRIBs that we were getting were just plain wrong.
I do know of several successful cruisers who never look at forecasts before they leave on a passage. They leave when they're ready and deal with whatever is out there.
It's pretty easy to avoid tropical storms. A well-found cruising sailboat
can deal with everything else, usually without breaking anything expensive. It's rarely dangerous although it can be uncomfortable for a while.
Hope for the best but prepare for the worst.
Fair winds and calm seas.