La Niña Ending

[GordMay]

After three years, the La Niña weather phenomenon (that increases Atlantic hurricane activity, and worsens western drought) is gone, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said [1] Thursday.

The globe is now in what's considered a "neutral" condition, and probably* trending to an El Niño, in late summer or fall.
* NOAA's forecast said there's a 60 per cent chance that El Niño will take charge come fall. There's also a five per cent chance that La Nina will return for an unprecedented fourth dip.

[1] "Synopsis: La Niña has ended and ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring and early summer 2023" ➥ https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/produc...ensodisc.shtml

➥ https://www.climate.gov/news-feature...e-la-ni%C3%B1a

[Alan Mighty]

Originally Posted by GordMay

After three years, the La Niña weather phenomenon (that increases Atlantic hurricane activity, and worsens western drought) is gone, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said [1] Thursday.

Thanks, Gord!

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) took a view not dissimilar to NOAA in February 2023.

BOM also suggests:

* the neutral state of ENSO may transition to El Nino in about July 2023;

* the Indian Ocean Dipole may transition from neutral to positive in about July 2023

and

* BOM will update its thoughts on the issues on 14 March 2023.

See: Climate Driver Update

[sandy stone]

Good riddance indeed. Gulf Coast residents, rejoice!

[Bill O]

Originally Posted by sandy stone

Good riddance indeed. Gulf Coast residents, rejoice!

El Nino for the SE/Gulf usually means more rain/flooding.

[sandy stone]

Maybe so, but in my experience less hurricanes/flooding. I'll take it.

[Montanan]

Visual depiction:

[Protondecay123]

Originally Posted by Bill O

El Nino for the SE/Gulf usually means more rain/flooding.

Here's a picture from the NWS that has the USA East.

[Don C L]

Hmmm... La Nina was supposed to give us a dry winter here in California... and THAT sure ain't happening!

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by Don C L

Hmmm... La Nina was supposed to give us a dry winter here in California... and THAT sure ain't happening!

Indeed.

Despite La Niña’s (declining) presence, a robust series of storms brought impressive precipitation across California, spurring floods and landslides, increasing reservoir levels, and dumping eye-popping snowfall, in the mountains.

While La Niña and El Niño do factor into Southern California weather, another phenomenon, known as the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), can affect whether storms hit.
The MJO starts as a massive expanse of extra large precipitation, often in the form of tropical thunderstorms, that tend to move from the Indian Ocean, eastward into the Pacific Ocean. That can release an enormous amount of latent heat into the atmosphere, and through that action, it can influence storm tracks, and whether (or not) they hit California.
There can be multiple MJO events within a season, and so the MJO is best described as intraseasonal tropical climate variability (varies on a week-to-week basis).

There’s also something called the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), which can disrupt the connection between the MJO, and weather on the West Coast. The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation is a regular variation of the winds, that blow high above the equator. Strong winds (in the stratosphere) travel in a belt around the planet; and every 14 months or so, these winds completely change direction. This means a full cycle takes roughly 28 months, making it the most regular slow variation in the atmosphere, after the cycle of the seasons.

While the local weather effects from El Niño and La Niña usually happen (until they don’t), the bottom line is that, if you count every El Niño as wet, and every La Niña as dry (in California), sooner or later, you’re gonna get embarrassed.

It appears that climate & weather are slightly more complicated. than might be imagined, by a single (or even 3) indicator(s).

[StuM]

Originally Posted by GordMay

It appears that climate & weather are slightly more complicated. than might be imagined, by a single (or even 3) indicator(s).

I thought that atmospheric CO2 was the only thing that affected "climate and weather"

[garyfdl]

Originally Posted by StuM

I thought that atmospheric CO2 was the only thing that affected "climate and weather"

Why would you think that??

[El Pinguino]

Not sure whether this is down to the end of La Niña , the start of El Niño, or the bit in between but its broken more than a few records and not in a good way.

https://cuencahighlife.com/cyclone-y...ed-to-testify/

[garyfdl]

Originally Posted by RaymondR

"the floods are going to drown us" to "we'll perish in the droughts".

See 'CALIFORNIA'

[Don C L]

Originally Posted by garyfdl

See 'CALIFORNIA'

Yes, that is what we here are experiencing In California. And I’d wager there are precious few places left on Earth that are not having record-setting extreme weather events anymore.

[garyfdl]

Originally Posted by Don C L

Yes, that is what we here are experiencing In California. And I’d wager there are precious few places left on Earth that are not having record-setting extreme weather events anymore.

I agree. Even here in the upper midwest the changes are more and more apparent. The Great Lakes water level cycles are shorter and more extreme. Winters are warmer; summer storms more frequent and intense; hail storms, which were out of the ordinary, are now routine.