IRMA

[meatservo]

Now here comes IRMA, projected to possibly become a cat.5 hurricane. Hope this beast turns north and then goes out to sea.







meatservo

[SV Bacchus]

I really know nothing from nothing but a friend who is "in the business" tells me there is a strong trough running down the eastern seaboard that will indeed turn Irma north missing most, if not all of the US. New England area may get some..

This is far from official so take if FWIW.

[Blue Stocking]

Originally Posted by SV Bacchus

I really know nothing from nothing but a friend who is "in the business" tells me there is a strong trough running down the eastern seaboard that will indeed turn Irma north missing most, if not all of the US. New England area may get some..

This is far from official so take if FWIW.

So I'm guessing your boat is not in Bermuda , eh ?

[Dr. D]

Oh, crap.....

[cptcptcpt]

storms with "I" names historically suck above average, probably because they tend to be around in the heart of the season when water temps are high and fronts less frequent, lets hope irma wants to be different, least damage if she does dodge everything will be riptides and erosion

[skipmac]

Originally Posted by Blue Stocking

So I'm guessing your boat is not in Bermuda , eh ?

My totally untrained and uncertified prognostication, Irma will pass west of Bermuda, just missing the US east coast and curve NE out into the North Atlantic.

So you can rest easy, don't worry, be happy.

[Saleen411]

Originally Posted by skipmac

My totally untrained and uncertified prognostication, Irma will pass west of Bermuda, just missing the US east coast and curve NE out into the North Atlantic.

So you can rest easy, don't worry, be happy.

Please forgive me if I have you confused with somebody else....aren't you a weather router?

If so, i would place pretty good stock in your prediction.

[zeehag]

irma will cat 5 out if she makes landfall. gotta slam the islands first. then ye can worry about the rest of it.
this is early.
irma doesnt even know where irma will go.
best results happen if and when you prep for landfall on top of you of a cat 5 intensifying cane.
that is only way to be prepared.
island dwellers, make submarines. in mangroves. you will die. watch the storm from highest position of your island.

grenada sounds about right.

or maine. isnt maine a cane hole?

[zeehag]

ps. donot overlook the formation growing beside irmas wake

[SV Bacchus]

Originally Posted by zeehag

ps. donot overlook the formation growing beside irmas wake

Yup Zee, they say that one could be a bad one!

[SV Bacchus]

My friend 'in the business' just sent his latest:

There has been a change in the forecasts. The news is turning bad, I fear. The last two sets of model runs bring Irma farther south than forecast before. The GFS model brings Irma in for a landfall near Myrtle Beach, SC, on Monday, Sept. 11th. The NVG brings Irma even further south, raking most of Florida's east coast first, before landfall in SC.


But as Zee says "Irma doesn't know where Irma is going" so we will see as she gets closer.

[Hud3]

Just thought I'd post links with model data for those interested in following the forecasts...

Tropical Cyclone Guidance

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/...ne-model-plots

https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane?index_region=at

[Suijin]

It's unusually difficult to forecast at this point given the specifics. The trough over the US, which is predicted to move NE, is unstable and has the potential to collapse or break. What happens with it in the next few days is unpredictable and plays a large role in steering Irma.

Pretty clear that some of the Leewards are going to get raked or hit, and the Bahamas too. But when Irma turns north very small differences in steering inputs will have dramatic impacts on where she goes. Only a few degrees will make the difference between landfall in Florida or just brushing the entire coast. A prediction of her path earlier than Wed/Thurs probably not very accurate.

[Steadman Uhlich]

SOURCE:
Hurricane Irma approaches Eastern Caribbean as powerful storm - abcactionnews.com WFTS-TV

Hurricane Irma approaches Eastern Caribbean as powerful storm - abcactionnews.com WFTS-TV

Short EXCERPT:

"At 8 a.m. Monday, the National Hurricane Center said Irma is a Category 3 with 120 mph winds. Some strengthening is forecast through Tuesday night.

Irma is moving toward the west-southwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the west is expected later today, followed by a west-northwestward turn late Tuesday.


On the forecast track, the center of Irma will move closer to the Leeward Islands through Tuesday and then be near the northern Leeward Islands Tuesday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km).

A hurricane watch is in effect for:

Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis
Saba, St. Eustatius, and Sint Maarten
Saint Martin and Saint Barthélemy "

[zeehag]

it is understood the islands will not fare well.
they are in irmas way.
after the islands irma should head either into gom or up fla coast. both are predominant in models.
irma will bring death and destruction. prep well and prep for a cat 5 cane intensifying on landfall.
i never trust the prediction to diminish in intensity. that is untrustworthy as there is the issue of regeneration and intensification to consider.

The 11AM advisory is out. Another bend to the west. N central Cuba would be dead center in the cone for Saturday morning. The more mountainous side of Cuba would be on the east side of the storm in the senario. This is not very dissimilar to earlier UK Met models which had the storm almost in the middle of the straits but a bit earlier. I do not recall many prior storm taking such a path toward Cuba so I guess time will tell how accurate that forecast actually is....it is after all five days out. We are due to receive much detail from the atmospheric runs over the continent to gauge the timing and strength of the trough so this five day has a pretty wide cone at five days.

Given all that, were this to get to that position, it will become a colossal worry for the entire area from the Upper Keys to New Orleans IMO and if it turns sharply to the North as many of the prior model runs have shown, it would put the entire Fl Peninsula in trouble. While the storm would be degraded a tad by the higher west side Island of Cuba, it will have time to regenerate over very warm waters as it begins its northward run IMO.


Ike travelled over Cuba on a westerly heading after passing over Great Inagua.


Yes it did, just did not recall it. The HARF intensity model take this down to Cat 1 after showing move over Cuba BTW, just like Ike did. Also interesting, its path and projected one over the next five days would be a rerun to that point.
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