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pbmaise · 05-09-2017, 17:30

Any Florida cruisers put to sea to move out of harm's way? I was looking at charts and if I was there would have headed South of Cuba.

If you are preparing, tips from preparing for Yolanda

Reduce windage. Remove sails from boom and any roller Fuller.

Remove wind generator blades

Remove Bimini and tie down solar panels

I removed all trampolines.

Chain makes a good rope, however be careful of making ropes too tight if there is sudden surge.

I would tie down my pilot house.

I would also carefully consider what I tie to. Will it float up with me in a surge? Should I tie break away lines to fixed objects?

**skipmac** · 05-09-2017, 18:22

Quote:

Originally Posted by Saleen411

Please forgive me if I have you confused with somebody else....aren't you a weather router?

No, but I used to drink beer with a guy that read the weather from a printout for the student news channel at UF.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Saleen411

If so, i would place pretty good stock in your prediction.

Latest National Hurricane Center report shows the track turning sharply north somewhere around the Keys putting FL at a high risk of either a direct hit or a run up one side or the other. But what do they know?

**neilpride** · 05-09-2017, 18:57

The guy in the white jeep just born again...

Irma in Barbuda.

https://youtu.be/OcPdmsguY4U

montenido · 05-09-2017, 19:02

Damn Neil, that is major scary. Hope all you folks stay safe.

Cheers, Bill

Flyingriki · 05-09-2017, 20:36

Wishing you'all in the path the best of luck! Holy cow.....

sophiedaisey · 05-09-2017, 21:49

Praying for all in the path of this monster storm. This is not one to "ride out". If you can get out of Dodge.

angelfish2 · 07-09-2017, 08:59

Well, my hubby is in Punta Gorda preparing our IP 32 (a 40 dream and 5 year refit) for the approach of Irma. I am in Montana surrounded by wild fires and trying to survive the dense smoke. Seems it's bad everywhere.

My thoughts and prayers are with all you guys down south. My heart just breaks looking at all the photos.

LEOCAT66 · 09-09-2017, 11:45

It sure seems to me that IRMA is running circles around all of the alleged best computer models. Been turning now for how long? Reminds me of 1998, Hurricane Mitch when every model had it going north west, into the Gulf. It went south east and ran right over the Fantome, which was depending on the models for its positioning. This stuff is, IMHO, way over rated. Great Read "The Ship and the Storm" by Jim Carrier.

**JPA Cate** · 09-09-2017, 16:43

Quote:

Originally Posted by LEOCAT66

It sure seems to me that IRMA is running circles around all of the alleged best computer models. Been turning now for how long? Reminds me of 1998, Hurricane Mitch when every model had it going north west, into the Gulf. It went south east and ran right over the Fantome, which was depending on the models for its positioning. This stuff is, IMHO, way over rated. Great Read "The Ship and the Storm" by Jim Carrier.

Yes, it's because they're only models, and hurricanes are like the 2 ton gorilla, they go wherever they want to. They are unstable, there are too many variables, and one time when we recorded predicted positions for a small cyclone, at no time did it go where it was predicted. This is why we scurry far away when it is the season.

Ann

Steadman Uhlich · 09-09-2017, 17:07

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPA Cate

Yes, it's because they're only models, and hurricanes are like the 2 ton gorilla, they go wherever they want to. They are unstable, there are too many variables, and one time when we recorded predicted positions for a small cyclone, at no time did it go where it was predicted. This is why we scurry far away when it is the season.

Ann

Yes, they can be unpredictable.

This image shows the track of the 1906 hurricane that looped over Florida twice after forming near Nicaragua. It was devastating for the time, causing much damage and killed hundreds of people, many on boats in the Florida keys.

Sawbonz · 09-09-2017, 19:48

Quote:

Originally Posted by Steady Hand

Yes, they can be unpredictable.

This image shows the track of the 1906 hurricane that looped over Florida twice after forming near Nicaragua. It was devastating for the time, causing much damage and killed hundreds of people, many on boats in the Florida keys.

So how exactly, in 1906, do you think they manage to track the entire course of this storm across multiple days and multiple countries with no radar, satellite, or likely phones?

**JPA Cate** · 10-09-2017, 00:00

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sawbonz

So how exactly, in 1906, do you think they manage to track the entire course of this storm across multiple days and multiple countries with no radar, satellite, or likely phones?

The meteorologists of the time would have recorded wind strengths at various locations and times, and plotted them. When telegraph comms were restored, those, too, would have been available. Transport was slow back then, but communications were possible, and fast.

Steady, TC Justin was a looper, as well, here in Oz, went back out to sea, the water was still warm, spun up again, and came back. It does happen, and a lot of it is about water temperature.

Ann

**a64pilot** · 10-09-2017, 07:01

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sawbonz

So how exactly, in 1906, do you think they manage to track the entire course of this storm across multiple days and multiple countries with no radar, satellite, or likely phones?

I would also think damage paths, path of a tornado for example is pretty obvious, maybe a hurricane path is similar?

**skipmac** · 10-09-2017, 07:14

Quote:

Originally Posted by a64pilot

I would also think damage paths, path of a tornado for example is pretty obvious, maybe a hurricane path is similar?

Exactly. I drove down I-75 once after a tornado in south Georgia. Where it crossed the interstate looked like a bulldozer had leveled a wide swath through the trees.