Not wanting to get into arguments about "what caused" El Faro to sink / break apart, etc....
I thought it better to start a new thread about the weather / weather forecasts, and the decision making of merchant vessel's captains...
So, here goes:
Regarding the M/V El Faro's final voyage...
Using US NHC forecasts / advisories, and El Faro's time/position data from
Marine Traffic...
I understand that merchant vessels sail to meet schedules....
And, I understand that a
forecast of a Tropical Storm might not detour a merchant vessel, that is trying to make its scheduled off-load...
But, there was
forecast a building / strengthening storm prior to El Faro's departure, and the
route sailed by El Faro seems like the normal rhumbline course (or slightly west of the rhumbline as they neared the storm, due to Marine Traffic's last posted position is about 15nm east of the southern end of Cat Island, between Cat Island and San Salvador....which is 60nm - 100nm west of the rhumbline), and this would place El Faro directly in the path of this strengthening storm.
{And, even en
route, prior to encountering the truly severe weather / entering the eye wall of the
hurricane, the weather info / forecasts clearly showed further strengthening, and the vessel seems to have continued on into the heart of the storm, rather than change course (such as changing course about 12 hours into the voyage, when still north of the
Bahamas,
head west towards
Florida and either go south when west of the
Bahamas (bucking the Stream, or
head into Ft. Pierce, etc.....or even 6 - 8 hours later, 18- 20 hours into voyage, when east of the NE Providence Channel, head West thru the NE Providence Channel / NW Providence Channel, away from the storm)....}
A CNN-reported quote from one of El Faro's owners (Pres and CEO of the company who owns El Faro), is true / partially true, but doesn't really tell the whole truth / whole story!
If you actually look at the forecasts, prior to departure and at time of departure, an argument can be made that this might have been "no worries" for a big ship / experienced crew, but just 12 hours after departure, the picture got far worse....and certainly prior to their encountering
propulsion / maneuvering issues, there were opportunities to change course and mitigate the effects of the storm!
I thought some might be interested in the the official US National
Hurricane Center's Forecasts, for Tropical Storm Joaquin / Hurricane Joaquin, the evening and entire day preceding El Faro's departure from
Jacksonville, FL, and while en route, along the rhumbline course from Jax FL to
Puerto Rico:
This info taken directly from the NHC page...
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archiv/2015/JOAQUIN.shtml?
Here are the official NHC Forecasts disseminated PRIOR to El Faro's departure...and while en route...
Departure reported as "sometime on Tuesday 29 Sep 2015", but it seems was likely very late Tuesday night, approx 0132z to 0229z
(from Marine Traffic: JACKSONVILLE [US] (2015-09-30 01:32:00 and 2015-09-30 02:29) when the NHC forecast from 0300z Wed would have been hot in the hand of the El faro's captain)....
http://www.marinetraffic.com/ais/details/ships/shipid:454389/mmsi:368208000/imo:7395351/vessel:EL_FARO
Marine Traffic's last posted position of El Faro was on 0401z Thr Oct 1st, at 24.2747*N / 74.94522* W...and 3 and 1/2 days later, the USCG spotted/recovered debris at 23.4*N / 73.9*W on the afternoon of Oct 4th...
--- As of 11pm Monday night (0300z, Tue Sept 29 2015):
TS Joaquin
current position:
26.7N 70.4W
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 230 DEGREES AT 4 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z
27.1N 72.0W
MAX
WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z
27.2N 72.8W
MAX
WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z
27.4N 73.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
--- As of 5am Tue morning (0900z Tue Sept 29, 2015):
TS Joaquin
current position:
26.6N 70.6W
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 4 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z
26.7N 72.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z
26.8N 72.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z
27.1N 73.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
--- As of 11am Tue morning (1500z Tue Sept 29, 2015):
TS Joaquin current position:
26.5N 70.8W
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 4 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z
26.3N 72.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z
26.2N 73.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z
26.1N 73.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
--- As of 5pm Tue afternoon (2100z Tue Sept 29, 2015):
This Forecast / Advisory was likely the next to last one available, or possibly the last one available, prior to departure.
And, the El Faro's skipper seemed to lay a course that would take him directly into a building / strengthening weather system (where winds were forecast to be 75kts, gusting to 90 kts, and seas in excess of 25' - 30', by morning of Oct 1st, just ~ 36 hours ahead)
TS Joaquin current position:
NEAR 26.0N 71.0W
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 240 DEGREES AT 4 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z
25.8N 71.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT..
FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z
25.5N 72.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z
25.1N 73.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z
24.8N 73.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
EDIT::
Tues night the NHC started interim advisories every 3 hours....so, more updated info was also available...
--- As of 11pm Tue evening (0300z Wed Sept 30, 2015):
This Forecast / Advisory was likely the final one available, prior to departing Jax / heading out the St. John's River mouth.
And, the El Faro's skipper seemed to lay a course that would take him directly into a building / strengthening weather system (where winds were forecast to be 80kts, gusting to 100 kts, and seas in excess of 25' - 30', by morning of Oct 1st, just ~ 30 - 36 hours ahead)
TS Joaquin current position:
25.8N 71.7W
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 240 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z
25.5N 72.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z
25.2N 73.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z
24.8N 74.1W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z
24.9N 74.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
--- As of 5am Wed Morning (0900z Wed Sept 30, 2015):
TS Joaquin current position:
25.4N 72.5W
MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 245 DEGREES AT 5 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT
FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z
25.1N 73.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z
24.7N 73.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z
24.7N 74.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z
25.2N 74.7W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
--- As of 11am Wed Morning (1500z Wed Sept 30, 2015):
This was approx 12 hours after departure, when El Faro was still north of the Bahamas, approx. 150nm east of Ft. Pierce, FL...
Hurricane Joaquin current position:
24.7N 72.6W
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 230 DEGREES AT 5 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 971 MB EYE DIAMETER 50 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT
FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z
24.3N 73.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z
24.1N 74.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z
24.4N 74.4W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z
25.3N 74.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
--- As of 5pm Wed Afternoon (2100z Wed Sept 30, 2015):
This was approx 18 hours after departure, when El Faro was east of the NE Providence Channel, Bahamas....(by probably 50 - 60nm), but probably encountering Gale force to Storm force winds being 120nm - 150nm from the center of Joaquin, and possibly having initial maneuvering / propulsion issues?? But, still continued on, toward the path of a building/strengthening storm?? (this was 7 hours prior to their last Marine Traffic posted position, and ~ 10 - 12 hours before their
distress call
.)
Hurricane Joaquin current position:
24.3N 73.1W
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 225 DEGREES AT 7 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 967 MB EYE DIAMETER 45 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z
24.0N 73.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z
23.9N 74.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z
24.5N 75.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z
25.8N 75.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
--- As of 11pm Wed Evening (0300z Thr Oct 1, 2015):
This was approx. 24 hours after departure. (and near the time, they had propulsion issues)Notice the rapid strengthening in the past 6 - 9 hours, and the forecasts for even further increased strengthening in the next 12 hours!If they had propulsion / maneuvering issues now, and had a 15* list, and had already had flooding...this was the point where things spiraled out-of-control of the ship's crew, and they were probably (hopefully!) were preparing for disaster...
Hurricane Joaquin current position:
23.8N 73.1W
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 220 DEGREES AT 5 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 951 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z
23.5N 73.8W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z
23.6N 74.5W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z
24.7N 74.8W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
--- As of 5am Thr morning (0900z Thr Oct 1, 2015), (before their
distress call):
Hurricane Joaquin current position:
23.4N 73.7W
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 240 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 2
3.1N 74.2W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z
23.4N 74.8W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. .
FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z
25.0N 74.8W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT
--- As of 11am Thr morning (1500z Thr Oct 1, 2015), (after their distress call):
Hurricane Joaquin current position:
23.0N 73.9W
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 220 DEGREES AT 5 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 942 MB EYE DIAMETER 30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z
22.9N 74.2W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z
23.7N 74.6W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z
25.2N 74.4W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
--- As of 5pm Thr afternoon (2100z Thr Oct 1, 2015), (many hours after their distress call):
Hurricane Joaquin current position:
23.0N 74.4W
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 235 DEGREES AT 5 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 936 MB EYE DIAMETER 25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z
23.2N 74.7W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z
24.4N 74.7W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z
25.9N 74.1W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
{I've included a couple of Joaquin's positions / forecasts, after El Fero's distress call, so that everyone can see what the USCG and USAF were flying in while also looking for this vessel!}
Using my almost 50 years of experience with boating/sailing, including some 40+ years on/off sailing
offshore, and my passion for weather, etc., I cannot wrap my head around the decision making done by the El Faro's
captain??
Notwithstanding my caveat right upfront, regarding merchant vessels needing to sail to meet their schedules, and the initial forecasts being much different than those when en route, this decision making just doesn't make sense to me...
Any merchant skippers here, please enlighten me!
Thanks!
Fair winds to all...
John