Hurricane Danny - NE Caribbean

[S/V Alchemy]

Originally Posted by poiu

Danny is now upgraded to cat 2, yet the forecast wind at landfall in Antigua is downgraded to storm force. Doesn't sound right to me. I'd plan for worse.

I was at Jolly last October 13 on an RYA course. That was supposed to be 45 knots. Hurricane Gonzalo clocked 88 mph where we were. The world encompassed: Skipper by name, windy by nature

So good luck on Antigua! Hell of a way to break a dry spell.

[poiu]

Originally Posted by S/V Alchemy

I was at Jolly last October 13 on an RYA course. That was supposed to be 45 knots. Hurricane Gonzalo clocked 88 mph where we were. The world encompassed: Skipper by name, windy by nature

So good luck on Antigua! Hell of a way to break a dry spell.

Yes indeed. I was watching that one grow. I heard 95kt was recorded in N. Sound until the anemometer broke off. Not bad for a TS. It went on to do much worse in St Martin.

[Hoofsmit]

Well ... Here we go ! Our first hurricane here !
I just hope it's gonna have its ass wiped by the trough north of it, but it looks like we will have a drafty start to the week ! The models are fairly constant that we will get some of it
At least we have had more than enough time to prep, It seems jolly harbour is taking this a bit more seriously as a few got caught out with Gonzalo changing track , We will see if it's up to scratch !
Good luck to those with vessels in the marina and on the hard, thankfully mine is strapped on a lift between four concrete piles
Any other members here ?




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[monte]

Ah those lifts in jolly harbour are cool!

[Hoofsmit]

Yep, they sure are Monte
There is a Belize on one on the south side and a 60ft Sunseeker on another, some serious kit !
I think Antigua imports must have a good deal on ratchet straps - orange and blue every where !


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[CSY Man]

For those who store your sailboats on land:
After Hurricane Wilma in 2005 I went to some the boat yards in Fort Lauderdale and noted that quite a few of the sailbots stored on the hard had broken masts.
The boats were upright with double jack stands, but the mast buckled and broke 90 degrees or more when the wind hit from the side.
A sailboat in the water, even when tied to the dock, heels oves to the side to release the sideways strain on the mast, hence the masts only break when boats are in a cradle or on stands.
Wilma was pretty violent and kept me busy running my Absent Owner Business during the entire storm: Had 6 boats I dealt with, from a 92' mega yacht to a 33' CSY.
All boats in the water, no damage expect cosmetic from rubbing into exploded fenders or dock pilings without rub-guards.

[poiu]

Originally Posted by Hoofsmit

Well ... Here we go ! Our first hurricane here !
I just hope it's gonna have its ass wiped by the trough north of it, but it looks like we will have a drafty start to the week ! The models are fairly constant that we will get some of it
At least we have had more than enough time to prep, It seems jolly harbour is taking this a bit more seriously as a few got caught out with Gonzalo changing track , We will see if it's up to scratch !
Good luck to those with vessels in the marina and on the hard, thankfully mine is strapped on a lift between four concrete piles
Any other members here ?

Sent from my iPad.......i apologise for the auto corrects !!!

There was a good video in the blog linked to in the post from S/V Alchemy above. In case you missed it here it is:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VaX0dWkvtdU

It shows a boat in a boat lift next to a boat on a finger dock. The boat lift boat is doing better, but still struggling. Amazing how much water movement there is for just a fetch measured in metres.

It might help you work out how to defend your boat.

[Hud3]

The NHC is still saying that Danny will weaken to a tropical storm before reaching the islands, but you'll still be looking at 50-55 knot winds.

[neilpride]

Originally Posted by CSY Man

For those who store your sailboats on land:
After Hurricane Wilma in 2005 I went to some the boat yards in Fort Lauderdale and noted that quite a few of the sailbots stored on the hard had broken masts.
The boats were upright with double jack stands, but the mast buckled and broke 90 degrees or more when the wind hit from the side.
A sailboat in the water, even when tied to the dock, heels oves to the side to release the sideways strain on the mast, hence the masts only break when boats are in a cradle or on stands.
Wilma was pretty violent and kept me busy running my Absent Owner Business during the entire storm: Had 6 boats I dealt with, from a 92' mega yacht to a 33' CSY.
All boats in the water, no damage expect cosmetic from rubbing into exploded fenders or dock pilings without rub-guards.

Living in St Marteen for few years show me how wrong is to leave the boat in the wáter, in the boatyard at least you can expect a big bill in repairs, in the wáter is a write off....

[Hoofsmit]

Poiu
Thanks for the link, I had seen it before, but it is a good reminder when sitting on my deck sipping a 15 year old rum in the bright sunshine this afternoon !

All I can say is the cleats won't take any more lines, it's as good as I can get it ! Fingers crossed



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[Hoofsmit]

Latest is Danny has now 75mph sustained, moving at 14mph, by the NOAA coordinates, it is about 550 statute miles from my back door as I write this !
So , the worst should be with me about 0600hrs Monday morning, but it is suggested that we will start to experience the first effects at around 60 miles before the eye, so around 0200hrs
Feel free to correct my maths ! Or those with some experience of these things let me know if you think differently !



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[neilpride]

Downgrade to TS, and we have even time to see Dany boy as a strong tropical wave, wind shear and the Dusty saharan air layer is taking a toll in Dany.

[Hoofsmit]

Neilpride, one model has suggested that it will be down to 45knts by the time it hits, but that means possible gusts to 75knts , Jolly is at the bottom of a valley which often sees increased funnelling if the wind direction is a few clicks north of an easterly, which it normally is !
Since the local electricity supplier is likely to cut the grid prior to anything that might cause power cable damage, and thus the internet will be out for those like me that rely on the cell network for internet access , we will not know whether we are getting the top or bottom of Danny
So being a newbie to such weather systems, I think I will prepare for the worst, but that does not belittle your post, thanks for the information


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[CSY Man]

. Living in St Marteen for few years show me how wrong is to leave the boat in the wáter, in the boatyard at least you can expect a big bill in repairs, in the wáter is a write off....

Yeah, there is no right answer, a boat can get wrecked or damaged in a hurricane whether you are on land or in the drink.
Hurricane Holes may help if not crowed, but even if your boat is snug and secure, some other boat may break loose and wreck your own boat, seen that too.

[neilpride]

Originally Posted by Hoofsmit

Neilpride, one model has suggested that it will be down to 45knts by the time it hits, but that means possible gusts to 75knts , Jolly is at the bottom of a valley which often sees increased funnelling if the wind direction is a few clicks north of an easterly, which it normally is !
Since the local electricity supplier is likely to cut the grid prior to anything that might cause power cable damage, and thus the internet will be out for those like me that rely on the cell network for internet access , we will not know whether we are getting the top or bottom of Danny
So being a newbie to such weather systems, I think I will prepare for the worst, but that does not belittle your post, thanks for the information


Sent from my iPad.......i apologise for the auto corrects !!!

Yes yes, be ready for the worst, hope for the best is my motto, sustained winds of 50 knts now and we expect it to impact st marteen sunday night monday morning , still plenty of time for another 10 or 20 knts drop in the scale and we can have a nice cloudy windy day with plenty of rain, its coming straight to us, st barth , antigua , st marteen, i feel good since yesterday is a cat3 and after few bad canes here,, 50 knts sounds beautiful,,,even a minimal cat 1 is ok for me.

Is to sad to see that some cruisers want to learn the hard way, boats pilled in the buoys moorings with the sails in place, furlers, mainsails, windgenerators , etc... Marigot still with few boats at anchor, my god.. anyway have a safe sunday monday.... Greetings from St Marteen..