CRRRRAAAAAP
000
WTPZ45 KNHC 060255
TCDEP5
HURRICANE NEWTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
MIAMI FL EP152016
900 PM MDT MON SEP 05 2016
(8:00 PM San Carlos Time)
Newton has continued to quickly strengthen this evening, with a ragged eye occasionally becoming apparent in infrared
satellite pictures. The eye was confirmed by a recent SSMIS microwave overpass and the earlier aircraft data. The Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported a peak 700 mb flight-level wind of 87 kt around 2300 UTC, which supported the 75 kt intensity on the intermediate public advisory. Given the increase in organization since that time, the initial wind speed has been increased to 80 kt for this advisory. Newton is
forecast to remain in a very low shear
environment and over warm
water during the next 12 hours, which should lead to continued intensification before the center reaches the coast of the southern
Baja California peninsula Tuesday morning. Weakening is expected while system moves over the Baja
California peninsula, but given the fast forward speed, Newton could remain at or near hurricane strength until final landfall in mainland Mexico in about 36 hours.
8:00 AM Wednesday SAN CARLOS
Newton is moving northwestward or 325/14 kt. The hurricane will be moving around the western periphery of a ridge over the southern United States. This should cause a north-northwestward to northward motion that will bring the hurricane into northwestern Mexico in about 36 hours. The track guidance is very tightly packed, and the NHC track is near a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF models.
The wind radii were expanded outward based on data from the earlier aircraft mission. The updated track and intensity
forecast required the
government of Mexico to issue new warnings and watches for Baja California and mainland Mexico.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/0300Z 21.3N 109.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 23.3N 110.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 26.1N 111.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
We are here: 27.6N 111.03W .......................INLAND
36H 07/1200Z 29.2N 111.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
48H 08/0000Z 32.1N 110.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Brown