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Old 05-09-2016, 17:33   #61
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Re: How do we prepare our boat for 50 kt winds?

ok center at altitude is 850 an d at sea level 989, whew.
i moved slip to a safer one with 2 fingers. lashing my tarps and almost ready for this c1 to swipe us tonight.
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Old 05-09-2016, 18:06   #62
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Re: How do we prepare our boat for 50 kt winds?

Bloody thing is building! Named as a Hurricane now, a day earlier than what they were saying this morning!

85 mph winds sustained. So that's gotta be 90 knots gusts!

You guys better hunker right down.

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Old 05-09-2016, 18:10   #63
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Re: How do we prepare our boat for 50 kt winds?

Quote:
Originally Posted by knockabout View Post

[ ]
The picture above is facing due west, in the background, Bahia San Carlos makes a 90 degree left and faces due south. Again, the problems here are most likely to be surge related...

Also, can you give some information on what the other images are? They're almost works of art, but it would be interesting to know what we're seeing.



Was reading through the posts, and it seems like some are forgetting that the wind changes direction relative to the position of the center of the storm. If this is too pedantic of me, please ignore.

The first picture just shows the marina in the picture above. North is up, the marine is the little dark blue dash in the center of the bullseye. The circles are about a mile in diameter, the arrows show the different wind directions as the fictional mini-hurricane moves northward.

The second picture is more to scale, the circles are about 15 miles in diameter, the arrows show the wind direction as it changes hourly if the storm moves at about fifteen miles an hour.

The third picture is about the same scale and shows why on the westward or southwestward facing shores of Mexico it is almost always better for cyclonic storms to pass to the east of ones location. That is the wind blows offshore (keeping surge and storm waves down) until the storm is inland and has (hopefully) had the edge taken off it by the interaction with land and, in this case, some low mountains.

Regardless, I hope everyone in Newton's sights makes out OK.
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Old 05-09-2016, 18:19   #64
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Re: How do we prepare our boat for 50 kt winds?

105 knots measured by Hurricane Hunter Aircraft 1 hour ago.


It was just one reading near the center.

Most wind 50 to 65 knots (we're talking knot not MPH)
But look at the NE Quadrant!! Lots of solid purple 64-80 knots.
See the pink for the 105 knots on the upper NE bar down towards the center on the line of white from a cloud






Keep an eye on this website, its excellent: Tropical Tidbits
the current storms page is direct lifts from NHC with extra stuff people dont normally get







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Old 05-09-2016, 18:20   #65
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Re: How do we prepare our boat for 50 kt winds?

Quote:
Originally Posted by jimbunyard View Post
The picture above is facing due west, in the background, Bahia San Carlos makes a 90 degree left and faces due south. Again, the problems here are most likely to be surge related...

Also, can you give some information on what the other images are? They're almost works of art, but it would be interesting to know what we're seeing.

Was reading through the posts, and it seems like some are forgetting that the wind changes direction relative to the position of the center of the storm. If this is too pedantic of me, please ignore.

Regardless, I hope everyone in Newton's sights makes out OK.
Yes, the old timers here said surge in the the small bay north of the marina has been/will be a problem. Everyone at anchor out there is now in the marina, I believe.

Yes, we are aware that the wind will shift directions as the storm passes. There isn't anything we can do about it, really.

Take a look at windyty.com for some great wind and pressure graphics.

I'm not sure what other information you are looking for regarding the pictures?

Hunker down is right. Sheesh!
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Old 05-09-2016, 18:27   #66
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Re: How do we prepare our boat for 50 kt winds?

That 105 knots is on both their plot and in their graph so it was definitely recorded... maybe an aberration, of course.... could be a tornado??

Do you guys get tornadoes there with hurricanes? East cost, Gulf or Mexico sure do.
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Old 05-09-2016, 18:29   #67
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Re: How do we prepare our boat for 50 kt winds?

Quote:
Originally Posted by MarkJ View Post
105 knots measured by Hurricane Hunter Aircraft 1 hour ago.

It was just one reading near the center.

Most wind 50 to 65 knots (we're talking knot not MPH)
But look at the NE Quadrant!! Lots of solid purple 64-80 knots.
See the pink for the 105 knots on the upper NE bar down towards the center on the line of white from a cloud
Wow, very cool. Thanks, MarkJ. We can't influence Newton, but I did figure out how to solve all this pre-hurricane/tropical storm anxiety. LOL
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Old 05-09-2016, 18:36   #68
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Re: How do we prepare our boat for 50 kt winds?

Yep! A bar is always a safe place.

Have you ever here a news story "20 Drunken Sailors Killed in a Bar During Hurricane"?


Actually it has happened in 1972 or 3 in Australia in the Whitsundays people stood in the resort in front of floor to ceiling glass window, watching, when it blew in. Killed a few.

(Reference Alan Lucas)
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Old 05-09-2016, 18:48   #69
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Re: How do we prepare our boat for 50 kt winds?

Quote:
Originally Posted by MarkJ View Post
105 knots measured by Hurricane Hunter Aircraft 1 hour ago.


It was just one reading near the center.

Most wind 50 to 65 knots (we're talking knot not MPH)
But look at the NE Quadrant!! Lots of solid purple 64-80 knots.
See the pink for the 105 knots on the upper NE bar down towards the center on the line of white from a cloud




Never seen a better illustration of why they call it the 'Dangerous Semicircle'.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Sailor647 View Post
I'm not sure what other information you are looking for regarding the pictures?

Hunker down is right. Sheesh!
Was just asking Knockabout about this picture they posted.



You've got other things to worry about...talk about trial by fire. Maybe she'll calm down a bit by the time she gets to you...keeping my fingers crossed for all y'all though.
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Old 05-09-2016, 18:55   #70
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Re: How do we prepare our boat for 50 kt winds?

jimbunyard,

that picture comes from this site. play around with it. amazing

https://earth.nullschool.net/
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Old 05-09-2016, 19:30   #71
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Re: How do we prepare our boat for 50 kt winds?

Double your dock lines, each to its own cleat.

Tie the sail bags to something

Wrap line around the covered mainsail.

Take down all canvas like the dodger and bimini and store them inside. Fold the frames down and tie them to something.

If you have roller furled headsail, wrap a line around it as high as you can reach to prevent unwrapping. The sheet wrapped around is not good enough to prevent unwrapping.
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Old 05-09-2016, 19:48   #72
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Re: How do we prepare our boat for 50 kt winds?

Quote:
Originally Posted by MarkJ View Post
Yep! A bar is always a safe place.

Have you ever here a news story "20 Drunken Sailors Killed in a Bar During Hurricane"?

Actually it has happened in 1972 or 3 in Australia in the Whitsundays people stood in the resort in front of floor to ceiling glass window, watching, when it blew in. Killed a few. (Reference Alan Lucas)
What are you trying to do? Scare us into paralysis? LMAO
Let's not turn this into a doom-and-gloom thread! Well, on second thought, let's at least wait until the storm has passed. Then it might be quite entertaining... LOL

Especially after we've gone through all this work for nothing cause Newton fizzles to a breeze just as soon as it hits Baja....(wishful thinking)
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Old 05-09-2016, 20:27   #73
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Re: How do we prepare our boat for 50 kt winds?

CRRRRAAAAAP


000
WTPZ45 KNHC 060255
TCDEP5

HURRICANE NEWTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152016
900 PM MDT MON SEP 05 2016 (8:00 PM San Carlos Time)

Newton has continued to quickly strengthen this evening, with a ragged eye occasionally becoming apparent in infrared satellite pictures. The eye was confirmed by a recent SSMIS microwave overpass and the earlier aircraft data. The Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported a peak 700 mb flight-level wind of 87 kt around 2300 UTC, which supported the 75 kt intensity on the intermediate public advisory. Given the increase in organization since that time, the initial wind speed has been increased to 80 kt for this advisory. Newton is forecast to remain in a very low shear environment and over warm water during the next 12 hours, which should lead to continued intensification before the center reaches the coast of the southern Baja California peninsula Tuesday morning. Weakening is expected while system moves over the Baja California peninsula, but given the fast forward speed, Newton could remain at or near hurricane strength until final landfall in mainland Mexico in about 36 hours. 8:00 AM Wednesday SAN CARLOS

Newton is moving northwestward or 325/14 kt. The hurricane will be moving around the western periphery of a ridge over the southern United States. This should cause a north-northwestward to northward motion that will bring the hurricane into northwestern Mexico in about 36 hours. The track guidance is very tightly packed, and the NHC track is near a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF models.

The wind radii were expanded outward based on data from the earlier aircraft mission. The updated track and intensity forecast required the government of Mexico to issue new warnings and watches for Baja California and mainland Mexico.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0300Z 21.3N 109.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 23.3N 110.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 26.1N 111.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
We are here: 27.6N 111.03W .......................INLAND
36H 07/1200Z 29.2N 111.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
48H 08/0000Z 32.1N 110.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Old 05-09-2016, 22:35   #74
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Re: How do we prepare our boat for 50 kt winds?

Secure solar panels if you have them.
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Old 05-09-2016, 23:28   #75
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Re: How do we prepare our boat for 50 kt winds?

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Secure solar panels if you have them.
Or unbolt them and stash them below! Best of luck with it. Also turn dorade vents away from the wind, and maybe even drop the boom down to deck.
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