Heads up. If you've been living under a rock in QLD you may have missed this.

[IslandHopper]

Originally Posted by Paul L

For those of us that are used to tracking hurricane paths in the Caribbean, N Atlantic and Eastern Pacific this is really eye opening as to how apparently completely unpredictable cyclone paths are in this part of the world. Watching the models over the week or 10 days has shown Oma hitting Bundaberg or the Gold Coast, or heading to just off Sydney, ending up in the north island New Zealand or ending up in Townsville - depending on what day you looked at tbe models. The predictions seem better than throwing darts, but not by a lot.

Even the Met guys are saying this is a very odd one, and it's the oddest one i have seen in a while..

[Alan Mighty]

Originally Posted by IslandHopper

Even the Met guys are saying this is a very odd one, and it's the oddest one i have seen in a while..

Indeed.

The elders at the marina reckon the key to Oma's strange behaviour was a very large eye surrounded by a ring of intense thunderstorms.

The elders further say that large eye and the surrounding t/storm ring throttled Oma and prevented it from intensifying. Also were associated with its slow speed of travel (most of the time between 5 and 7 knots).

[JPA Cate]

Originally Posted by Paul L

For those of us that are used to tracking hurricane paths in the Caribbean, N Atlantic and Eastern Pacific this is really eye opening as to how apperntly completely unpredictable cyclone paths are in this part of the world. Watching the models over the week or 10 days has shown Oma hitting Bundaberg or the Gold Coast, or heading to just off Sydney, ending up in the north island New Zealand or ending up in Townsville - depending on what day you looked at tbe models. The predictions seem better than throwing darts, but not by a lot.

Alan's suggestions, of what the "marina elders" say are pretty interesting, are any of them meteorologist elders?

I'm not a meteorologist, but one thing we did one time, was to record on the chart (paper) of the area, the predicted noon position for the named storm, that we got from the met bureau's high seas forecast on HF radio, and its actual position as it approached our hurricane hole. It never went to the predicted position. Over the years, I have come to take that as "normal" for cyclones.

But cyclone Oma has indeed been different. Theoretically, as she rambles back northwards, she could re-charge up and go *wherever*. As yet, she hasn't gone where i thought she would. And Justin, some years back, came west, struck Oz, then went back east, and came back and struck Oz again!
There's a reason people's insurances want you out of the tropical cyclone zone in season! 28.6 deg. S. is pretty far down to stay a cyclone!

Ann

[Simi 60]

Originally Posted by JPA Cate

!
There's a reason people's insurances want you out of the tropical cyclone zone in season! 28.6 deg. S. is pretty far down to stay a cyclone!

Ann

Close enough to Port Moresby to Coffs Harbour (10 to 30) is out of bounds on my policy.
Realistically a bit unrealistic.

[44'cruisingcat]

Originally Posted by Simi 60

Close enough to Port Moresby to Coffs Harbour (10 to 30) is out of bounds on my policy.
Realistically a bit unrealistic.

Ours, with Topsail, specifies 25' S, (just south of Bundy) which is more reasonable.

And even if you're north of that, just taking sensible actions, such as tying up to mangroves, or going to a cyclone rated marina will maintain coverage.

If we left our boat on a swing mooring at Airlie, and it got nailed by a cyclone, (during cyclone season) we'd be on our own. Which seems fair enough.

[RaymondR]

Originally Posted by 44'cruisingcat

Ours, with Topsail, specifies 25' S, (just south of Bundy) which is more reasonable.

And even if you're north of that, just taking sensible actions, such as tying up to mangroves, or going to a cyclone rated marina will maintain coverage.

If we left our boat on a swing mooring at Airlie, and it got nailed by a cyclone, (during cyclone season) we'd be on our own. Which seems fair enough.

Yep, mine too, and I'm slightly offended by the arbitrariousness of it.

It's a bit strange because the Burnett River is pretty notorious for boat losses because of the way it floods and the next decent haven south is the Mary river which also floods but without the boat losses. But to the north about 70 nm is the large area of creeks and rivers adjoining Gladstone Harbour, The Narrows and the Fitzroy river an area which is only equaled by the inside of Hinchenbrook Passage and Trinity Inlet for haven purposes.

There was a post in a thread a couple of years ago by the owner of a boat anchored in one of the Hinchenbrook creeks which survived without a scratch whilst just about every boat which stayed in the marina at Cardwell a few miles north was destroyed or seriously damaged by cyclone Yasi.

There was another thread by a multihull owner who sheltered amongst the mangroves in Island Head Creek who suffered a 360 into the mangroves during a cyclone a few years ago and was lucky to get the vessel back out.

Cyclone behavior in Australia is quiet different between the east and west coasts. Most of the ones which affect Western Australia are gestated in the Timor Sea and either go ashore immediately into the Northern Territory and dissipate or drift westward then curve south to come ashore on the Western Australian coast. They're just a vicious but far more reliable in their behavior and June is the only month recorded without one. There are no good havens between Derby in the north and Fremantle in the south and entire pearling fleets were destroyed by them with a large loss of crews during the old hard hat diver pearling era.

[IslandHopper]

Well i don't have an answer as to why you guys have limits on how far South you have to stay....

I'm with Club Marine and prior to them was with Nautilus, both fully comprehensive and neither have/had restrictions on where i can sail or keep the vessel during Cyclone season, as long as i take all the necessary precautions i'm covered......

If it was me i would be asking why of the insurer....

[44'cruisingcat]

Originally Posted by IslandHopper

Well i don't have an answer as to why you guys have limits on how far South you have to stay....

..

The answer lies in the premiums charged.

And as I said, we're not required to stay below 25'S, just that if in a named storm above 25S during cyclone season, we'd need to carry out certain actions (which are the kinds of things we'd do anyway) to reduce the risk in order to meet the insurer's requirements.

[IslandHopper]

Yes your probably correct, my boats never been any further south than Bundy, prior to here it was either in Cairns or Port Douglas and the premiums have always been up there, although having no claims for the last 10 years or so has brought them down a tad...

Originally Posted by 44'cruisingcat

The answer lies in the premiums charged.

And as I said, we're not required to stay below 25'S, just that if in a named storm above 25S during cyclone season, we'd need to carry out certain actions (which are the kinds of things we'd do anyway) to reduce the risk in order to meet the insurer's requirements.

[44'cruisingcat]

Hasn't THAT forecast changed !