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Old 20-02-2019, 16:09   #61
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Re: Heads up. If you've been living under a rock in QLD you may have missed this.

Note the difference between

(a) the simple hook turn to the NW of the forecast track shown by the model preferred by TropicalStormRisk.com, and

(b) the T-shaped forecast track of the model preferred by BoM.

Should you work through the BoM interactive Weather and Wave Forecast Maps (Interactive Weather and Wave Forecast Maps) you will see the initial turn to the NW by Oma reversed into a wander to the SE by ex-Cyclone Oma.
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Old 20-02-2019, 16:15   #62
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Re: Heads up. If you've been living under a rock in QLD you may have missed this.

Really impressed with the quality of BOM updates and graphic presentations. Probably one of the best in the World![emoji106]
With the King Tides happening I hope it doesn't make landfall
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Old 20-02-2019, 16:54   #63
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Re: Heads up. If you've been living under a rock in QLD you may have missed this.

A lot of us in Bundy will be happy if it follows the below forecast at present time, although we could do with a drop of rain or two, just no wind......

Interactive Weather and Wave Forecast Maps
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Old 20-02-2019, 17:52   #64
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Re: Heads up. If you've been living under a rock in QLD you may have missed this.

Bureau of Met (Aus) at 11:07 am AEST Thursday 21 February 2019

Forecast Track Map

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Old 20-02-2019, 21:48   #65
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Re: Heads up. If you've been living under a rock in QLD you may have missed this.

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Old 20-02-2019, 22:27   #66
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Re: Heads up. If you've been living under a rock in QLD you may have missed this.

A screenshot from my mobile device shows ships that have to sail to schedule are - largely - giving Oma a wide berth.

The colour code for the wind speed (in knots) runs at the bottom of the screen.
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Old 21-02-2019, 02:05   #67
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Re: Heads up. If you've been living under a rock in QLD you may have missed this.

1. TropicalStormRisk.com model run 0600 UTC 21 February

Past and Forecast Track

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Old 21-02-2019, 02:11   #68
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Re: Heads up. If you've been living under a rock in QLD you may have missed this.

2. Tropical Cyclone Watch Centre/Bureau of Meteorology Brisbane

Tropical Cyclone Advice No. 2 (issued at 1651 Local Time) (ignore the "No. 1" in the URL description)

Tropical Cyclone Advice 1 (QLD)

Next advice will be issued by 2300 Local Time
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Old 21-02-2019, 02:18   #69
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Re: Heads up. If you've been living under a rock in QLD you may have missed this.

3. Tropical Cyclone Forecast Track Map

Issued at 5:00 pm AEST Thursday 21 February 2019. Refer to Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 2.

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Old 21-02-2019, 02:24   #70
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Re: Heads up. If you've been living under a rock in QLD you may have missed this.

Surf beaches are closed to swimmers: Alexandra Headlands.

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Old 21-02-2019, 02:25   #71
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Re: Heads up. If you've been living under a rock in QLD you may have missed this.

Storm surge raising tide levels above the astronomical tide. At Inskip Point:

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Old 21-02-2019, 02:36   #72
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Re: Heads up. If you've been living under a rock in QLD you may have missed this.

US Military Joint Typhoon Warning Center: 0600 UTC 21 February

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Old 21-02-2019, 23:28   #73
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Re: Heads up. If you've been living under a rock in QLD you may have missed this.

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Old 22-02-2019, 04:25   #74
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Re: Heads up. If you've been living under a rock in QLD you may have missed this.

STORM FORCE WIND WARNING 124 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 220722 UTC:

Quote:
*** COPY OF WARNING ISSUED BY TCWC BRISBANE***
TROPICAL CYCLONE OMA CENTRE 980HPA CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.8 SOUTH 159.5 EAST AT 220600 UTC.

POSITION FAIR.

REPEAT POSITION 26.8S 159.5E at 220600 UTC.

CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS.

EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 34 KNOTS WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 170 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 240 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 27.5S 160.1E AT 221800 UTC.
AND NEAR 27.7S 160.9E AT 230600 UTC.
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Old 22-02-2019, 13:41   #75
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Re: Heads up. If you've been living under a rock in QLD you may have missed this.

For those of us that are used to tracking hurricane paths in the Caribbean, N Atlantic and Eastern Pacific this is really eye opening as to how apperntly completely unpredictable cyclone paths are in this part of the world. Watching the models over the week or 10 days has shown Oma hitting Bundaberg or the Gold Coast, or heading to just off Sydney, ending up in the north island New Zealand or ending up in Townsville - depending on what day you looked at tbe models. The predictions seem better than throwing darts, but not by a lot.
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