"ERNESTO"

[GordMay]

Invest 98-L may Become TD-5, or TS ‘Ernesto’ this week
The National Hurricane Center* continues to increase the development chances of Invest 98L.
We have two possible trajectory scenarios.
In one scenario, the future Tropical Storm Ernesto could enter the Caribbean Sea, and affect Puerto Rico, and the Dominican Republic.
In the second scenario, it would pass over the Virgin Islands, and the northern Leeward Islands.
The Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the Dominican Republic should continue to monitor the future development of this system.

* 200 AM EDT [0605 UTC] Sun, Aug 11, 2024 ➥ https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion 200 AM EDT [0605 UTC] Sun, Aug 11, 2024 ➥ https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refres...IATWDAT.shtml?

See also ➥ https://www.cruisersforum.com/forums...ml#post3923411
And ➥ https://www.cruisersforum.com/forums...ml#post3923788

[Seaworthy Lass]

98-L became Tropical Depression-5 early yesterday EST, and it has just reached Tropical Storm level (earlier than expected). Any minute they will officially update the name to TS Ernesto.

Monitoring the progression of these systems is an excellent learning experience for anyone either cruising these areas or planning to in the future.

It surprised me when Hurricane Beryl swept through the Grenadine how cruisers in its path had not only not been tracking the system for 10 days before it hit (there was surprise expressed by many just 3-5 days before impact), but several days before Beryl hit they placed a huge amount of faith in its forecast track and forecast strength.

The NHC presents data on the inaccuracy of these forecast tracks. The error is a whopping +/- 150 nm 5 days beforehand and even 24 hours out the error has historically been about +/- 30 nm in recent years. With the TSs and hurricanes in the eastern Caribbean tending to be very small in diameter, this can dramatically alter the forces experienced.

Ernesto’s track is well north of us, but I have been monitoring it with interest. After a bit of a shift south, in the past 6 hours the average of the forecast tracks of the “Global + Hurricane Models” has suddenly jumped about 60 nm north at the point it hits the eastern Caribbean islands. Contact will be roughly in only 16 hours.

Global + Hurricane Models Tracks at 12:00z and 18:00z today:



SWL

[hpeer]

Boat is on the hard in Antigua, we are in Canada.

Will be interesting. Unless wind strengthens a good bit above forecast.

Can't do anything now anyway.

[noelex 77]

Originally Posted by hpeer

Boat is on the hard in Antigua, we are in Canada.

Will be interesting. Unless wind strengthens a good bit above forecast.

Can't do anything now anyway.

I think it will only be a tropical storm when it passes Antigua so a boat on the hard should be fine. Best wishes.

[pianopraze]

Been watching this for days.

Keeps shifting west.

Looks like Puerto Rico will be hit. Might go even west of that but PR will still get some nasty weather.

[GordMay]

Many models show Tropical Storm “Ernesto” intensifying to a hurricane, by this weekend.
“Ernesto” is tracking through the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands; then turn north, in the Atlantic, and not impact the United States mainland.

As of 2:00 AM AST [1:00AM EDT] Tuesday, August 13, the centre of “Ernesto” was located near 16.2, -60.6, with movement W at 24 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb, with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

[Seaworthy Lass]

Originally Posted by hpeer

Boat is on the hard in Antigua, we are in Canada.

Will be interesting. Unless wind strengthens a good bit above forecast.

Can't do anything now anyway.

Ernesto is probably passing through Guadeloupe roughly about now as a light tropical storm. There is little real time information available online. The wind gusted up to about 36 knots about an hour ago further south and swung to the SW. Settled now as an E to SE.

Hopefully all is well on Antigua.

SWL

[GordMay]

Tropical Storm Ernesto dropped torrential rain [6" to 10"], on eastern Puerto Rico, early this AM [Aug 14], and left hundreds of thousands of people without power, as it threatened to strengthen into a major [Cat 3] hurricane, en route to Bermuda.

At 5:00AM, the storm was located about 85 miles (135 kilometers) north-northwest of San Juan, Puerto Rico.
It had maximum sustained winds of 70 mph (110 kph) and was moving northwest, at 16 mph (26 kph).

Tropical Storm Ernesto Advisory Number 11 (500 AM AST Wed Aug 14 2024)
➥ https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refres.../140851.shtml?

[GordMay]

MINIMAL DAMAGE AS TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO BRUSHES BY ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA
Peak winds of 53 miles per hour from Tropical Storm Ernesto toppled some vendors’ tents and dislodged tree branches, but Antigua and Barbuda was largely unscathed, from the storm’s passage.
Video ➥ https://youtu.be/bca2_Mlf7ag

[hpeer]

Jolly Harbor, Antigua reports lots of rain and no other issues. All boats appear fine.

[Messing About]

As a part of my pre-boat life preparations, I’m spending this storm season doing virtual anchoring and making decisions to stay or go with each approaching system.

For Debby, I would have stayed put in Culebra PR and that was the right call.

Two days ago, I made the virtual decision that I would have moved from Culebra to La Parquera, on the south SW side on mainland PR.

Yesterday, Culebra was experiencing gusts to 47.
La Parguera was only to 18. This morning, Culebra, gusting to 53. La Parguera to 23.

2/2 so far this season.

[pianopraze]

Originally Posted by Messing About

As a part of my pre-boat life preparations, I’m spending this storm season doing virtual anchoring and making decisions to stay or go with each approaching system.

For Debby, I would have stayed put in Culebra PR and that was the right call.

Two days ago, I made the virtual decision that I would have moved from Culebra to La Parquera, on the south SW side on mainland PR.

Yesterday, Culebra was experiencing gusts to 47.
La Parguera was only to 18. This morning, Culebra, gusting to 53. La Parguera to 23.

2/2 so far this season.

I did this for years before I bought my first sailboat.

Doing it again now as I’m looking for my next catamaran.

[GordMay]

The Canadian Hurricane Centre currently forecasts Hurricane “Ernesto” to be south of Nova Scotia Monday morning.
➥ https://weather.gc.ca/hurricane/track_e.html

Tropical Cyclone Information Statement (Ernesto)
We are monitoring the development of Hurricane Ernesto which will begin tracking northward toward Bermuda Thursday and impact that island Saturday. The hurricane is forecast to be rather large, intensify to category-3 level, and generate large ocean swell that will begin arriving along the Atlantic Coast of Nova Scotia on Saturday. Increasingly hazardous surf and rip currents can be expected Sunday.
➥ https://weather.gc.ca/hurricane/statements_e.html

[GordMay]

Flooded Rd, in Toa Baja, Puerto Rico

[Mike OReilly]

I’m cutting my short season even shorter thanks to Ernesto. It’s predicted to give us a glancing blow here in NE Newfoundland, but if it backs just a little this could turn into a lot more. So we’re heading for shelter.