El Nino effect on 2015 South Pacific Cruising Season

[Helios]

Many of the El Nino indices and forecasting models are predicting an El Nino year for this Summer and Fall/Winter of 2014. Does anyone know if 2014 turns out to be an El Nino year, could it effect the 2015 south pacific cruising season? I'm currently planning to make the pacific puddle jump in spring 2015, likely sticking to the coconut milk run, but have heard that that the pacific trades can weaken and sometimes reverse in an El Nino year. So far my research has only come up with forecast and discussions for the 2014 season, but I'm curious if El Nino ever effects two seasons in a row.

Does anyone have first hand experience with the pacific during previous El Nino years?


Any feedback or additional sources of information on the topic would be greatly appreciated.

Climate Prediction Center: ENSO Diagnostic Discussion

[Helios]

In reading through the FAQ's section of NOAA's site I found this bit of information on the frequency and average time periods of El Nino events:

"How long do El Niño and La Niña typically last?

El Niño typically lasts 9-12 months, and La Niña typically lasts 1-3 years. They both tend to develop during March-June, reach peak intensity during December-April, and then weaken during May-July. However, prolonged El Niño episodes have lasted 2 years and even as long as 3-4 years."

Climate Prediction Center - ENSO FAQ

[donradcliffe]

I went across the South Pacific twice--once in an el Nino year. I had too much wind, too little wind, just right wind, rain, sunny days, wind the wrong direction, cyclone threats--both times. I had a fantastic trip--both times!

[Helios]

Thanks for putting it in perspective! Actually getting out there, regardless of conditions is probably better than the arm chair cruising we're currently doing.

[boatman61]

Originally Posted by Helios

Thanks for putting it in perspective! Actually getting out there, regardless of conditions is probably better than the arm chair cruising we're currently doing.

And the Sun rises...
Go and deal with it.. all this El + & - is bollocks.. it won't kill you unless your totally not ready for it like some who've gone before..
But if you **.. its grand to have something to blame..