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Old 29-08-2019, 03:51   #1
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Dorian

Surprised at how there has been no mention here. From what I see, it has the potential to be ugly, a real problem, especially for East Coast Fl.

You guys and gals take precautions, find a good place to be and hunker down, prep the boat soon, real soon.
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Old 29-08-2019, 03:59   #2
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Re: Dorian

Agree. Anyone know how USVI/BVI fared? Nearly direct hit I think
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Old 29-08-2019, 04:35   #3
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Re: Dorian

Hurricane Dorian does little damage to U.S. Virgin Islands
https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/puerto...ning-1.5262306


V.I. Electricity Returning, Seemingly Mostly Minor Damage As Dorian Moves Away
https://stjohnsource.com/2019/08/28/...an-moves-away/

Grounded sailboat at St. Thomas Yacht Club after Hurricane Dorian moved through Wednesday.
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Old 29-08-2019, 04:57   #4
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Re: Dorian

Last update on NHC showed landfall east coast of central FL Monday morning with winds >110 mph. Exact track that far out very uncertain but the current center of the cone hits just south of Cape Canaveral.



Really glad my boat isn't still in Green Cove Springs.
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Old 29-08-2019, 05:14   #5
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Re: Dorian

The central east coast will take the brunt of it. Unfortunately, they're also scheduled for a king tide coinciding with Dorian's landfall. There could be significant coastal flooding.

In central Florida and on the central west coast, where our boat is, the forecast is for much less.

We'll fill up all of the water jugs, charge all of the flashlight batteries, bring in all of the deck cushions, and add more dock lines. Based on the forecasted track and wind speeds, we're not even going to take down the eisenglass. The solar panels are screwed down tightly and they'll feed the bank of five house batteries, if the power goes out (unlikely), so that will keep the bilge pumps running. We're also five miles up river in a very well-protected hurricane hole so we're already about as prepared as we can be for this particular storm.

Fingers crossed.

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Old 29-08-2019, 06:12   #6
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Re: Dorian

Unfortunately the models are all over the place and no one really has a good handle on where this thing is going. The models seem to be trending further south and perhaps a bit east. Yesterday the European models had it going in near Stuart Fl and going straight across the state and coming out near Punta Gorda while still a hurricane, restrengthening in the Gulf and hitting Pensacola. Today going in near Ft Lauderdale and going up the center of the peninsula. Landfall might happen as late as Tuesday instead of Sunday. The steering high pressure systems will tend to drift east, so the longer it gets delayed coming in the further east the northerly turn is likely to be. I'm starting to make some early preparations today just in case yesterday's forecast turns out to be the right one.
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Old 29-08-2019, 06:19   #7
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Re: Dorian

interestingly the cone of uncertainty has been more uncertain as time goes by. Fully covering east FL.
I lean to trust the EWCMF a bit more which sends it south to Boca. Anyone has numbers on reliability of models pertaining to hurricanes?
good luck
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Old 29-08-2019, 07:18   #8
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Re: Dorian

unfortunately the Melbourne Titusville area has been long overdue for a big storm and now NHC shows Dorian as major. anything over 100 MPH will be bad. I am sure the boat owners down there are freaking out today with the latest prediction. They won't have an inland tidal surge unless the Port Canaveral locks fail
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Old 29-08-2019, 12:46   #9
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Re: Dorian

[QUOTE=a64pilot;
You guys and gals take precautions, find a good place to be and hunker down, prep the boat soon, real soon.[/QUOTE]


The model I looked at says you should be ready for a direct hit by Thursday
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Old 29-08-2019, 12:54   #10
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Re: Dorian

Quote:
Originally Posted by malbert73 View Post
Agree. Anyone know how USVI/BVI fared? Nearly direct hit I think

my brother is on the north shore USVI and said Dorian was packing a punch and a real storm. said he saw 100 mph wind. but he still has power and rum so feeling better today
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Old 29-08-2019, 12:58   #11
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Re: Dorian

If you wish for it to hit in a spot because that mean it wouldn’t hit you does that make you a bad petson?
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Old 29-08-2019, 13:28   #12
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Re: Dorian

Quote:
Originally Posted by Captain Bill View Post
Unfortunately the models are all over the place and no one really has a good handle on where this thing is going...
Yes, quite a cone of confusion.


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Old 29-08-2019, 13:36   #13
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Re: Dorian

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Originally Posted by fcftampa View Post
... I lean to trust the EWCMF a bit more which sends it south to Boca. Anyone has numbers on reliability of models pertaining to hurricanes?
good luck
The most reliable and accurate forecast for hurricane track and intensity in the Atlantic ocean is the official forecast produced by the National Hurricane Center.

It consistently outperforms individual computer models, and that makes sense because those models are tools the NHC uses to make their (ensemble) forecast.
The European model is produced by the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts. It is one of several models run by various organizations around the globe that meteorologists consider reliable and useful in forecasting tropical cyclones.
In recent years the ECMWF model has earned a reputation for being more advanced than other models. It is often the best performing model. But in the past two years, other global models have closed the gap and model performance always varies from storm to storm.
The European model may have the best reputation, but it is not always the best model.


The black line (“OFCL”) represents the error in the official NHC forecast track. In 2017, that forecast tended to be off by about 50 nautical miles (about 57 regular miles). Seven top models are shown by colored dots. The European model is the blue dot labeled EMXI. GFSI, GFDI, GFNI, and NGPI are American models. HWFI is a research model specialized in forecasting Hurricane intensity. UKMI is a British Model. The other items are averages of models or less commonly cited models.
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Old 29-08-2019, 16:25   #14
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Re: Dorian

Quote:
Originally Posted by a64pilot View Post
Surprised at how there has been no mention here. From what I see, it has the potential to be ugly, a real problem, especially for East Coast Fl.

You guys and gals take precautions, find a good place to be and hunker down, prep the boat soon, real soon.
That's because I don't want to think about my boat down there.
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Old 29-08-2019, 16:31   #15
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Re: Dorian

Well, I hope it doesn't intensify much more. Palarran is at Bradford Marine in Freeport and every track I've seen puts it pretty much right over the yard. I was just down there last week checking out everything and there isn't anything that can be done "more" so we shall see. When we were in Oyster Pond on St. Maarten the boat was in the water when some Cat 2 when just north of the marina. There wasn't any damage to the boat then but Irma wiped out the whole harbor.
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