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Old 13-05-2021, 08:10   #16
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Re: Don't know who to believe!

Why not go through the Windward Passage between Cuba and Haiti, and spend a few days at Ile a Vache. Then continue east to DR. Just a thought. Easier than beating to windward against current, to make Luperon.
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Old 13-05-2021, 08:15   #17
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Re: Don't know who to believe!

Quote:
Originally Posted by LittleWing77 View Post
...
Well, if you used to be a commercial fisherman, you know how to read the NOAA surface charts (google "NOAA current surface maps") reflecting the location of highs and lows and various barometric pressures of each - then draw your own conclusions...
NHC Marine Forecasts
Tropical Surface Analysis https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/mobile/graphics_tsa.php

Synopsis for Caribbean Sea and Tropical N Atlantic from 07N to
19N between 55W and 64W
351 AM EDT Thu May 13 2021
SYNOPSIS...High pressure north of the region will support fresh
to strong trade winds in the south-central Caribbean through Sat.
Winds and seas will gradually diminish Sun and Mon as the high
pressure shifts eastward and weakens.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/mobile/MIAOFFNT3.html

See also: "Weather Wisdom"
https://www.cruisersforum.com/forums...tml#post402309
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Old 13-05-2021, 08:16   #18
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Re: Don't know who to believe!

I second Dsanduril's recommendation. I get the most insight from NWS Forecast Discussion. It not only lets me know how the forecaster came to their conclusions, it'll usually say straight out how confident they are in the probabilities.

Good luck from another weather weenie.
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Old 13-05-2021, 08:19   #19
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pirate Re: Don't know who to believe!

I use Passage Weather and the last couple of years have also been using Predict Wind..
I tend to study both for a week or more before my trips to judge which is giving the most reliable forecasts over a few days then opting for the one most accurate.
On occasion both have proved wrong but, that's the thing with modelling.. its great till it isn't.
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Old 13-05-2021, 08:24   #20
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Re: Don't know who to believe!

Quote:
Originally Posted by BillKny View Post
Any forecast 96 hours out is a fantasy no matter if it is a model or a professionally hand drawn chart.
Having working on weather models for more than 10 years in the USAF and sailing since I was 7 years old. I would adjust BillKny's statement to anything more than 36 hours is mostly guess work. All the models have strengths, flaws and weaknesses. Every model is a trade off because there are too many variables and too many unknowns. My method is to look at the top 3 or 4 models and as other have said, where they agree there is a high probability of correctness. The less they agree the less chance of any of them being correct. If 3 of the 4 agree the 3 are probably close to correct. This is where you have to use your own judgment and keep checking as things change. Don't be afraid to change your plan as weather changes.
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Old 13-05-2021, 08:36   #21
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pirate Re: Don't know who to believe!

Forgot to post this forecast for Friday, Saturday and early Sunday...
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Old 13-05-2021, 08:52   #22
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Re: Don't know who to believe!

Quote:
Originally Posted by LittleWing77 View Post
LOL!

You said it, I didn't.

Well, if you used to be a commercial fisherman, you know how to read the NOAA surface charts (google "NOAA current surface maps") reflecting the location of highs and lows and various barometric pressures of each - then draw your own conclusions.


Fair winds,
LittleWing77
Thanks again, LittleWing. I am very familiar with NOAA products. Used the surface analysis and forecasts almost exclusively when I was chasing tuna across the Pacific. I have looked at both those charts recently but unfortunately that macro scale doesn't help much planning a pleasant crossing from Mattewtown to Luperon.
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Old 13-05-2021, 08:57   #23
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Re: Don't know who to believe!

Quote:
Originally Posted by AJ_n_Audrey View Post
Why not go through the Windward Passage between Cuba and Haiti, and spend a few days at Ile a Vache. Then continue east to DR. Just a thought. Easier than beating to windward against current, to make Luperon.
Heading to Luperon to leave the boat for hurricane season.
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Old 13-05-2021, 09:03   #24
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Re: Don't know who to believe!

A collection of satellite based wind observations. It used to have a lot better coverage before QUIKSCAT died.

https://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/.../SSCATData.php
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Old 13-05-2021, 09:30   #25
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Re: Don't know who to believe!

Thanks Boatie. I will have a look at Passage Weather.
The above link prompted my post.
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Old 13-05-2021, 09:35   #26
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Re: Don't know who to believe!

Would help if I actually included the link.
https://forecast.predictwind.com/atlas/#Wind
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Old 13-05-2021, 11:01   #27
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Re: Don't know who to believe!

Captain’s Log: Little Inagua, Bahamas to Luperon, Dominican Republic

https://turftosurf.wordpress.com/201...ican-republic/

Interesting reading. They waited for north winds
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Old 13-05-2021, 12:50   #28
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Re: Don't know who to believe!

"Let's go sailing they said. The weather will be fine, they said."


ďIt's tough to make predictions, especially about the future.Ē

― Yogi Berra


Godspeed and enjoy your voyage.
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Old 13-05-2021, 13:06   #29
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Re: Don't know who to believe!

Thanks Montanan.
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Old 13-05-2021, 14:10   #30
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Re: Don't know who to believe!

I did something similar a few years ago.

I have 2 suggestions.

1 - contact Chris Parker for advice. You need to pay but they are professionals. If you are truly worried then the cost is a small price for added security.

https://www.mwxc.com/chris_parker.php

2 - No matter when you go under what ever forecast review your route and know your alternative anchorages. Could he bad weather, bad fuel, bad food or who knows what. Have a Plan B, C, etc.
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